Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>ONGC plans to increase gas production from 1,527 to 1,675 MMSCM by drilling new wells</li>
<li>Vedanta aims to reduce debt by $3 billion through cash flow, asset sales, and strategic measures</li>
<li>Tata Power will acquire Paradeep Transmission Ltd to build and operate a 765 kV transmission line</li>
</ul>


ONGC plans to increase gas production from 1,527 to 1,675 MMSCM by drilling new wells
Vedanta aims to reduce debt by $3 billion through cash flow, asset sales, and strategic measures
Tata Power will acquire Paradeep Transmission Ltd to build and operate a 765 kV transmission line


# 40 India Insight: ONGC Gas Production, Vedanta Debt Reduction, Tata Power Acquisition

<ul>
<li>We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.</li>
<li>Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.</li>
<li>Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)</li>
</ul>


We believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and we would look for an important low to be made near the U.S. election.
Supports to watch continue to be $110 on $ACWI and $41-42 on MSCI EM $EEM, and whether these levels hold or not will determine the severity of the pullback.
Primary reasons for this bearish expectation include major bullish RS inflections for defensive Sectors, and bearish price action in the U.S. (SPX), Japan (TOPIX/Nikkei 225), and Europe (EURO STOXX 50)


Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

<ul>
<li>We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024<em> Int'l Compass</em>
</li>
<li>Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 <em>Int'l Compass. </em>This has bullish implications for ACWI</li>
</ul>


We continue to view the latest pullback as healthy/normal within the ongoing bull market, and it is quite possible that the lows have been established on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
Upgrading EM to Market Weight; MSCI Emerging Markets, China (shanghai Composite) and Hong Kong (Hang Seng) Still Bottoming; we discussed buying in our February 23, 2024 Int'l Compass

Commodities all appear to be rolling over near resistance, which is what we discussed to watch for in our April 18, 2024 Int'l Compass. This has bullish implications for ACWI


Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

<ul>
<li>Indian pharmaceutical companies started FY24 on a strong note. Due to better pricing environment, drug shortages, and new launches, sector heavyweights reported double-digit revenue growth from U.S. business.</li>
<li>Price erosion has come down to high single-digit from their peak of mid-teens. Despite the rise in number of ANDA approvals from the US FDA, Indian companies continued their dominance.</li>
<li>Indian pharmaceutical companies have accelerated the filing pace. With shorter timeline of approval, the companies are witnessing a spike in number of approvals. Regulatory risk remains the main downside risk.</li>
</ul>


Indian pharmaceutical companies started FY24 on a strong note. Due to better pricing environment, drug shortages, and new launches, sector heavyweights reported double-digit revenue growth from U.S. business.
Price erosion has come down to high single-digit from their peak of mid-teens. Despite the rise in number of ANDA approvals from the US FDA, Indian companies continued their dominance.
Indian pharmaceutical companies have accelerated the filing pace. With shorter timeline of approval, the companies are witnessing a spike in number of approvals. Regulatory risk remains the main downside risk.


Indian Generic Pharmaceutical Companies: US Momentum to Continue Amid Favorable Sector Tailwinds

India

Lupin is an Indian multinational pharmaceutical company that develops, manufactures, and markets a diverse range of branded and generic formulations, biotechnology products, and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). The company specializes in therapeutic areas such as cardiovascular, anti-diabetic, respiratory, anti-infective, and women's health. Lupin Limited was founded in 1968 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.

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Lupin (LPC IN)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

# 40 India Insight: ONGC Gas Production, Vedanta Debt Reduction, Tata Power Acquisition

ONGC, Vedanta, and Tata Power are all making strategic moves to increase gas production, reduce debt, and expand their transmission capabilities.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Indian Generic Pharmaceutical Companies: US Momentum to Continue Amid Favorable Sector Tailwinds

Indian pharma companies saw strong U.S. revenue growth in H1FY24 due to better pricing, drug shortages, and new launches. With robust pipeline and...

Tina Banerjee

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

# 40 India Insight: ONGC Gas Production, Vedanta Debt Reduction, Tata Power Acquisition

​ONGC, Vedanta, and Tata Power are all making strategic moves to increase gas production, reduce debt, and expand their transmission capabilities.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives; More Countries With Improving Price and RS Trends

Pullback Continues $ACWI; Stick With Defensives. We continue to believe a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing, and would look for an...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Emerging Markets to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom; Energy Breakdowns

Upgrading Emerging Markets $EEM $VWO to Market Weight; China/Hong Kong Continue to Bottom $FXI $MCHI $KWEB; Lows Likely in on $ACWI; Commodities...

Vermilion Research

Indian Generic Pharmaceutical Companies: US Momentum to Continue Amid Favorable Sector Tailwinds

​Indian pharma companies saw strong U.S. revenue growth in H1FY24 due to better pricing, drug shortages, and new launches. With robust pipeline and...

Tina Banerjee

ONGC, Vedanta, and Tata Power are all making strategic moves to increase gas production, reduce debt, and expand their transmission capabilities.

Indian pharma companies saw strong U.S. revenue growth in H1FY24 due to better pricing, drug shortages, and new launches. With robust pipeline and...