Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

Last month saw China allocations hit record levels across Asia Ex-Japan, Emerging Market and Global active long-only funds.  The average China weight in Asia Ex-Japan funds stands at a record 50.96%, in active GEM funds a record 37.63% and in active Global funds an all-time high of 5.33%However, these increases have come at the expense of greater concentration.  Among Global managers, the top 10 largest China stock holdings now account for 62% of total China allocations, among GEM and Asia Ex-Japan funds just under 50% - an all-time high across all 3 investor groups. Dedicated China managers, however, are more diversified.  In this analysis, we look at the differences between dedicated China funds and their regional peers.  We find that Asia, GEM and Global managers are more concentrated in the Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services sectors, whereas dedicated China managers are more diversified across Technology, Industrials and Health Care stocks.  Regional funds are also underinvested in China A-Shares compared to dedicated China managers, who are running significant overweights vs the MSCI China benchmark.We identify the next generation of Chinese stocks outside of the big index names by following the lead of dedicated managers in the region.  We provide a list of 40 stocks, identified as 'Next Generation' stocks due to their widespread investment in dedicated China funds, but that are currently underowned by Asia Ex-Japan, GEM and Global investors.The list is headed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a>, one of the standout domestic holdings within the Health Care sector, followed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luxshare-precision-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12310:1" rel="noopener">Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH)</a> .Analysis taken from our Global, GEM, Asia Ex-Japan and China fund universes.  Global:  386 Active Funds, combined AUM $750bn                                                                                        GEM:  242 Active Funds, combined AUM $370bn                                                                                          Asia Ex-Japan: 98 Active Funds, combined AUM $70bn                                                                              China:  119 Active Funds, combined AUM $50bn

Last month saw China allocations hit record levels across Asia Ex-Japan, Emerging Market and Global active long-only funds.  The average China weight in Asia Ex-Japan funds stands at a record 50.96%, in active GEM funds a record 37.63% and in active Global funds an all-time high of 5.33%However, these increases have come at the expense of greater concentration.  Among Global managers, the top 10 largest China stock holdings now account for 62% of total China allocations, among GEM and Asia Ex-Japan funds just under 50% - an all-time high across all 3 investor groups. Dedicated China managers, however, are more diversified.  In this analysis, we look at the differences between dedicated China funds and their regional peers.  We find that Asia, GEM and Global managers are more concentrated in the Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services sectors, whereas dedicated China managers are more diversified across Technology, Industrials and Health Care stocks.  Regional funds are also underinvested in China A-Shares compared to dedicated China managers, who are running significant overweights vs the MSCI China benchmark.We identify the next generation of Chinese stocks outside of the big index names by following the lead of dedicated managers in the region.  We provide a list of 40 stocks, identified as 'Next Generation' stocks due to their widespread investment in dedicated China funds, but that are currently underowned by Asia Ex-Japan, GEM and Global investors.The list is headed by Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH), one of the standout domestic holdings within the Health Care sector, followed by China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH) and Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH) .Analysis taken from our Global, GEM, Asia Ex-Japan and China fund universes.  Global:  386 Active Funds, combined AUM $750bn                                                                                        GEM:  242 Active Funds, combined AUM $370bn                                                                                          Asia Ex-Japan: 98 Active Funds, combined AUM $70bn                                                                              China:  119 Active Funds, combined AUM $50bn

China's Next Generation:  Diversifying Away from Tencent and Alibaba.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1-year highs -- a positive risk-on signal. Stocks doing business in China, India, Taiwan, and South Korea continue to be a major focus when it comes to individual stock recommendations.

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1-year highs -- a positive risk-on signal. Stocks doing business in China, India, Taiwan, and South Korea continue to be a major focus when it comes to individual stock recommendations.

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is bullish and will continue to be as long as there is an absence of breakdowns. On the other hand, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 and Japan’s TOPIX have struggled to break above resistance and their RS remains near the lows -- be selective. In addition to covering important technical levels across all markets, we highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Communications, Industrials, and Transportation.

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is bullish and will continue to be as long as there is an absence of breakdowns. On the other hand, Europe’s EURO STOXX 50 and Japan’s TOPIX have struggled to break above resistance and their RS remains near the lows -- be selective. In addition to covering important technical levels across all markets, we highlight additional ideas in the following Sectors: Services, Communications, Industrials, and Transportation.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

In our weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Ideas series, we aim to highlight key stocks and sectors which the mainland investors traded via the northbound Shanghai and Shenzhen Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine and highlight interesting trade ideas.In this insight, we will have an overview of the weekly inflows into the A-share market via Shanghai/Shenzhen connect, top inflow and top three outflow stocks. We will also cover inflows and holdings by sectors, after which we will highlight top five inflows and outflows on a relative basis for large-cap and mid-cap stocks: stocks with a market capitalization above $5 bn, and those between $1 bn and $5 bn.In this insight, we will highlight inflows into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goertek-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11547:1" rel="noopener">Goertek Inc A (002241 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luxshare-precision-industry-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12310:1" rel="noopener">Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH)</a>, as well as outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yonghui-superstores-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15910:1" rel="noopener">Yonghui Superstores Co., (601933 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)</a>.

In our weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Ideas series, we aim to highlight key stocks and sectors which the mainland investors traded via the northbound Shanghai and Shenzhen Connect, as analyzed by our proprietary data engine and highlight interesting trade ideas.In this insight, we will have an overview of the weekly inflows into the A-share market via Shanghai/Shenzhen connect, top inflow and top three outflow stocks. We will also cover inflows and holdings by sectors, after which we will highlight top five inflows and outflows on a relative basis for large-cap and mid-cap stocks: stocks with a market capitalization above $5 bn, and those between $1 bn and $5 bn.In this insight, we will highlight inflows into Goertek Inc A (002241 CH), Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH), as well as outflows from Yonghui Superstores Co., (601933 CH) and China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH).

SH/​​SZ Connect Flow Weekly: Goertek, Luxshare, Yonghui, China Tourism

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

On 13th August 2020, Taiwan-listed electronic manufacturing giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegatron-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12852:1" rel="noopener">Pegatron Corp (4938 TT)</a> announced they would be acquiring the remaining 40% of shares in their subsidiary <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/casetek-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2929:1" rel="noopener">Casetek Holdings (5264 TT)</a> which they do not already own. Casetek is a company specializing in manufacturing light metal casings for electronic equipment - especially phones and laptops.The transaction will be implemented in the form of a "reverse triangular merger" between Casetek, Pegatron, and Pegasus Ace Limited (“Pegasus”) which will be a 100% owned SPV of Pegatron created specifically for this transaction. Following the completion of the Deal, Pegasus will cease to exist while Casetek will be the surviving entity, and will be 100% owned by Pegatron. Casetek will also be delisted following the completion of the transaction. While called a merger, because it will be conditional on receiving Casetek shareholder approval and regulatory approvals, it looks like a Tender Offer where the Offer Price will be TWD87.50 per share in cash and the transaction is expected to close by end-Feb 2021. On Friday, Casetek shares closed at TWD83.40 after going limit up, translating to a gross spread of 4.9% with around 6.5 months to completion. It will likely trade narrower on Monday 17 August. In this insight, we take a look at the details of the transaction to evaluate the attractiveness of this spread. As always, there is more below the fold. <hr>For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Taiwan, please refer to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-taiwan-m-a-guide-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30640" rel="noopener">Quiddity Taiwan M&amp;A Guide 2019</a>. This deal, however, is being conducted under Cayman jurisdiction.

On 13th August 2020, Taiwan-listed electronic manufacturing giant Pegatron Corp (4938 TT) announced they would be acquiring the remaining 40% of shares in their subsidiary Casetek Holdings (5264 TT) which they do not already own. Casetek is a company specializing in manufacturing light metal casings for electronic equipment - especially phones and laptops.The transaction will be implemented in the form of a "reverse triangular merger" between Casetek, Pegatron, and Pegasus Ace Limited (“Pegasus”) which will be a 100% owned SPV of Pegatron created specifically for this transaction. Following the completion of the Deal, Pegasus will cease to exist while Casetek will be the surviving entity, and will be 100% owned by Pegatron. Casetek will also be delisted following the completion of the transaction. While called a merger, because it will be conditional on receiving Casetek shareholder approval and regulatory approvals, it looks like a Tender Offer where the Offer Price will be TWD87.50 per share in cash and the transaction is expected to close by end-Feb 2021. On Friday, Casetek shares closed at TWD83.40 after going limit up, translating to a gross spread of 4.9% with around 6.5 months to completion. It will likely trade narrower on Monday 17 August. In this insight, we take a look at the details of the transaction to evaluate the attractiveness of this spread. As always, there is more below the fold. For more information about M&amp;A rules, regulations, and practices in Taiwan, please refer to Quiddity Taiwan M&amp;A Guide 2019. This deal, however, is being conducted under Cayman jurisdiction.

Casetek - Pegatron: WFH Dynamics Mean Taiwan Cash Merger Trading Cheapish?

China

Luxshare Precision Industry Co., Ltd. researches, manufactures and sells connectors. The Company's products are widely used in computers, communication devices, consumer electronics products and automobiles.

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Luxshare Precision Industry (002475 CH)

China's Next Generation: Diversifying Away from Tencent and Alibaba.

China exposure is becoming more concentrated in a small number of large cap stocks. We identify the next generation of China stocks by analyzing...

Steven Holden

Emerging Markets Breaking Out

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is...

Vermilion Research

SH/SZ Connect Flow Weekly: Goertek, Luxshare, Yonghui, China Tourism

In our weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Ideas series, we aim to highlight key stocks and sectors which the mainland investors traded via the...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Casetek - Pegatron: WFH Dynamics Mean Taiwan Cash Merger Trading Cheapish?

On 13th August 2020, Taiwan-listed electronic manufacturing giant Pegatron Corp (4938 TT) announced they would be acquiring the remaining 40% of...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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52-week Range

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China's Next Generation: Diversifying Away from Tencent and Alibaba.

China exposure is becoming more concentrated in a small number of large cap stocks. We identify the next generation of China stocks by analyzing...

Steven Holden

Emerging Markets Breaking Out

Emerging markets (EEM-US) are breaking above major $46.30 resistance to hit highs not seen since June 2018. Additionally, RS on EEM-US is near 1...

Vermilion Research

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

The MSCI ACWI index (USD) is breaking out to all-time highs while the MSCI EM index (local) is breaking above its prior highs from January. This is...

Vermilion Research

SH/​​SZ Connect Flow Weekly: Goertek, Luxshare, Yonghui, China Tourism

In our weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Ideas series, we aim to highlight key stocks and sectors which the mainland investors traded via the...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Casetek - Pegatron: WFH Dynamics Mean Taiwan Cash Merger Trading Cheapish?

On 13th August 2020, Taiwan-listed electronic manufacturing giant Pegatron Corp (4938 TT) announced they would be acquiring the remaining 40% of...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

SH/SZ Connect Flow Weekly: Goertek, Luxshare, Yonghui, China Tourism