Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. We see global equities as being in a goldilocks scenario where market dynamics and technicals are arguably 100% bullish. Of course, at some point this almost too good to be true scenario is likely to result in a pullback, but for now we see no signs of this rally letting up.  In our December International Strategy, we highlight areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities in Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Materials and Manufacturing.

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. We see global equities as being in a goldilocks scenario where market dynamics and technicals are arguably 100% bullish. Of course, at some point this almost too good to be true scenario is likely to result in a pullback, but for now we see no signs of this rally letting up.  In our December International Strategy, we highlight areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities in Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Materials and Manufacturing.

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy, Urbem (HK) Limited

Steven Chen

Quality-first, Business-perspective Strategy

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite the elevated valuation, family-controlled Hermes demonstrates its superior quality from a business-owner perspective, and hence, is worth following among patient investors;</li>
<li>At the same time, we find that the French heritage name has been increasingly APAC-driven in recent years and can very likely continue to benefit from rising emerging Asia in the foreseeable future.</li>
</ul>


Despite the elevated valuation, family-controlled Hermes demonstrates its superior quality from a business-owner perspective, and hence, is worth following among patient investors;
At the same time, we find that the French heritage name has been increasingly APAC-driven in recent years and can very likely continue to benefit from rising emerging Asia in the foreseeable future.


Hermes: An Increasingly APAC-Driven Story

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research, AlphaSituations

Robert Sassoon

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research

AlphaSituations

Since its establishment, AlphaSituations has delivered a track record of outperformance with a hit rate of winners of more than 70% of its portfolio of ideas generating annualized average returns of 20%. In January 2022, AlphaSituations was contracted by Water Tower Research, an investor engagement and stakeholder communication platform to provide coverage of Special Situations

Event-Driven

Following resolution of the LVMH/TIF merger spat, the focus now shifts on the looming court case starting November 16 in Michegan set to hear the arguments for and against <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/simon-property-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6472:1" rel="noopener">Simon Property Group (SPG US)</a>'s attempt to walk away from its Merger Agreement with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taubman-centers-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11757:1" rel="noopener">Taubman Centers (TCO US)</a> .  Below, we look to answer the following questions.Are there any takeaways from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lvmh-moet-hennessy-louis-vui" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21072:1" rel="noopener">Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC FP)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tiffany-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14729:1" rel="noopener">Tiffany &amp; Co (TIF US)</a> case that can be applied to the SPG/TCO situation?Does it make a difference whether the arguments are heard in Michegan or Delaware, where merger agreement disputes are most commonly litigated in the US?We also assess the likely outcome and suggest the best way to play this event.

Following resolution of the LVMH/TIF merger spat, the focus now shifts on the looming court case starting November 16 in Michegan set to hear the arguments for and against Simon Property Group (SPG US)'s attempt to walk away from its Merger Agreement with Taubman Centers (TCO US) .  Below, we look to answer the following questions.Are there any takeaways from the Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC FP) / Tiffany &amp; Co (TIF US) case that can be applied to the SPG/TCO situation?Does it make a difference whether the arguments are heard in Michegan or Delaware, where merger agreement disputes are most commonly litigated in the US?We also assess the likely outcome and suggest the best way to play this event.

MergerTalk: Simon Property Group/Taubman Centers Update - The Preferred Way To Play This Event

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

On 26 October the European Commission cleared <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lvmh-moet-hennessy-louis-vui" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21072:1" rel="noopener">Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC FP)</a> proposed acquisition of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tiffany-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14729:1" rel="noopener">Tiffany &amp; Co (TIF US)</a>, the U.S. jeweler said in an October 26 filing.
The <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/tiffany-lvmh-near-agreement-on-new-deal-terms-11603899275" target="_blank" rel="noopener">WSJ has reported today</a> that Tiffany is nearing an agreement to accept a lower price in its takeover by LVMH.
<ul>
<li>The companies have come to a preliminary agreement on new deal terms that would call for LVMH to pay $131.50, down from the prior $135.</li>
</ul>
I believe that the update shows a strong rebound from the lows brought upon by the Covid pandemic. Moreover, pessimism about Tiffany may be past the corner as the turnaround plan may finally be bearing fruit.
By applying a 26x to Capital IQ consensus estimate of $4.91 (EPS at FY 31 March 2023), I arrive at my price target of $127.66 per share of Tiffany. I believe that Tiffany should trade in line with LVMH's and Richemont's P/E.
The last months have witnessed a high stakes negotiation with threats of pulling the deal off and lawsuits, but Bernard Arnault likes to win, and he will presumably save $420 mn from the final tag. LVMH wants to grow in hard luxury and Tiffany represents a unique opportunity that will benefit from LVMH's savoir-faire. I believe that downside is limited and Tiffany's valuation is well supported by its future prospects. Gross spread is 1.2%. Recommendation is LONG TIF.

On 26 October the European Commission cleared Lvmh Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton (MC FP) proposed acquisition of Tiffany &amp; Co (TIF US), the U.S. jeweler said in an October 26 filing.
The WSJ has reported today that Tiffany is nearing an agreement to accept a lower price in its takeover by LVMH.

The companies have come to a preliminary agreement on new deal terms that would call for LVMH to pay $131.50, down from the prior $135.

I believe that the update shows a strong rebound from the lows brought upon by the Covid pandemic. Moreover, pessimism about Tiffany may be past the corner as the turnaround plan may finally be bearing fruit.
By applying a 26x to Capital IQ consensus estimate of $4.91 (EPS at FY 31 March 2023), I arrive at my price target of $127.66 per share of Tiffany. I believe that Tiffany should trade in line with LVMH's and Richemont's P/E.
The last months have witnessed a high stakes negotiation with threats of pulling the deal off and lawsuits, but Bernard Arnault likes to win, and he will presumably save $420 mn from the final tag. LVMH wants to grow in hard luxury and Tiffany represents a unique opportunity that will benefit from LVMH's savoir-faire. I believe that downside is limited and Tiffany's valuation is well supported by its future prospects. Gross spread is 1.2%. Recommendation is LONG TIF.

Tiffany - LVMH: Preliminary Agreement at a Lower Price

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker, Global Equity Research Ltd

Rickin Thakrar

IPO and L/S equity, 2015 Starmine top stock picker

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tiffany-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14729:1" rel="noopener">Tiffany &amp; Co (TIF US)</a> shares have recovered strongly after Reuters reported that Tiffany and LVMH are near a deal to agree to a 131.5 USD deal price (original at 135 USD) which represents c.2.5% discount to the original deal terms, despite previous attempts by LVMH to walk away from the deal. Our updated thoughts are below.

Tiffany &amp; Co (TIF US) shares have recovered strongly after Reuters reported that Tiffany and LVMH are near a deal to agree to a 131.5 USD deal price (original at 135 USD) which represents c.2.5% discount to the original deal terms, despite previous attempts by LVMH to walk away from the deal. Our updated thoughts are below.

LVMH-Tiffany – Reported Deal Between LVMH and Tiffany at Mild Discount to Original Price

France

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE is a diversified luxury goods group. The Company produces and sells wine, cognac, perfumes, cosmetics, luggage, and watches and jewelry.

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (MC FP)

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LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (MC FP)

Global Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

Our outlook remains bullish and we continue to believe that the path of least resistance is higher for global equities. In this report, we...

Vermilion Research

Hermes: An Increasingly APAC-Driven Story

The French heritage story has been increasingly APAC-driven in recent years and can very likely continue to benefit from rising emerging Asia in...

Steven Chen

MergerTalk: Simon Property Group/Taubman Centers Update - The Preferred Way To Play This Event

We set out the arguments why we expect the SPG/TCO merger dispute will likely result in a settlement and why the Preferreds and not the Common may...

Robert Sassoon

Tiffany - LVMH: Preliminary Agreement at a Lower Price

The last months have witnessed a high stakes negotiation, but Bernard Arnault likes to win. I believe that the deal will close, downside is limited...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

LVMH-Tiffany – Reported Deal Between LVMH and Tiffany at Mild Discount to Original Price

Tiffany shares have recovered strongly after the press reported that Tiffany and LVMH are near a 131.5 USD deal price (original at 135 USD), a 2.5%...

Rickin Thakrar

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