Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/laopu-gold-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44036:1" rel="noopener">Laopu Gold (6181 HK)</a>’s stock has fallen nearly 30% since its July 8 peak and declined another 4% yesterday despite an upbeat 1H2025 profit update.</li>
<li>The company’s positive profit alert reported revenues and profits up more than 2.5x year-on-year, exceeding market expectations.</li>
<li>The ongoing share price weakness despite strong results likely reflects a combination of technical factors, such as lock-up related selling, and broader fundamental concerns.</li>
</ul>



Laopu Gold (6181 HK)’s stock has fallen nearly 30% since its July 8 peak and declined another 4% yesterday despite an upbeat 1H2025 profit update.
The company’s positive profit alert reported revenues and profits up more than 2.5x year-on-year, exceeding market expectations.
The ongoing share price weakness despite strong results likely reflects a combination of technical factors, such as lock-up related selling, and broader fundamental concerns.


Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Strong Earnings, Soft Share Price – What’s Driving the Disconnect?

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/laopu-gold-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44036:1" rel="noopener">Laopu Gold (6181 HK)</a>’s  365-day lockup on shares held by pre-IPO investors expires tomorrow (June 27), more than doubling its current free float.</li>
<li>Near-Term pressure on the stock is likely, given the sharp increase in tradable shares, mixed gold price outlook, and limited retail investor access after a steep rally.</li>
<li>A potential stock split could broaden investor participation, improve liquidity and serve as a catalyst for next leg of stock upside.</li>
</ul>



Laopu Gold (6181 HK)’s  365-day lockup on shares held by pre-IPO investors expires tomorrow (June 27), more than doubling its current free float.
Near-Term pressure on the stock is likely, given the sharp increase in tradable shares, mixed gold price outlook, and limited retail investor access after a steep rally.
A potential stock split could broaden investor participation, improve liquidity and serve as a catalyst for next leg of stock upside.


Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Lockup Expiry Ahead. After 2000% Rally, Is There Still Shine Left?

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/laopu-gold-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44036:1" rel="noopener">Laopu Gold (6181 HK)</a>  targets to raise approximately USD350 mn from a primary placement of 4.31 million new shares at HKD630 per share.</li>
<li>Laopu Gold has delivered both superior margins and rapid growth by marrying cultural resonance, premium pricing, artisanal excellence, and outstanding store economics.</li>
<li>Laopu’s growth track record coincides with period of rising gold prices. Investors should weigh its impressive margins and brand strength against the risk of a less supportive gold price environment.</li>
</ul>



Laopu Gold (6181 HK)  targets to raise approximately USD350 mn from a primary placement of 4.31 million new shares at HKD630 per share.
Laopu Gold has delivered both superior margins and rapid growth by marrying cultural resonance, premium pricing, artisanal excellence, and outstanding store economics.
Laopu’s growth track record coincides with period of rising gold prices. Investors should weigh its impressive margins and brand strength against the risk of a less supportive gold price environment.


Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Heritage Luxury, Guochao Appeal. Key Facts, Financials & Valuation

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Act 1 of the US bear market is likely complete, with diverging price signals from stocks, bonds and the dollar.</li>
<li>This will be a rebound bounce to sell into, as we are not going back to previous highs.</li>
<li>Looking at companies servicing high-income consumers is a good hunting ground for shorts.</li>
</ul>


Act 1 of the US bear market is likely complete, with diverging price signals from stocks, bonds and the dollar.
This will be a rebound bounce to sell into, as we are not going back to previous highs.
Looking at companies servicing high-income consumers is a good hunting ground for shorts.


Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 2:  Trading Opportunities.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.
$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.
We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.


Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

France

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE is a diversified luxury goods group. The Company produces and sells wine, cognac, perfumes, cosmetics, luggage, and watches and jewelry.

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (MC FP)

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LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (MC FP)

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Lockup Expiry Ahead. After 2000% Rally, Is There Still Shine Left?

Post Lockup expiry, What's next? Outlook on gold price matters. Also, a potential stock split could broaden investor participation, improve...

Devi Subhakesan

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Heritage Luxury, Guochao Appeal. Key Facts, Financials & Valuation

Laopu Gold's multiples are not too steep given strong earnings growth outlook. Investors however need to weigh its upside potential against...

Devi Subhakesan

Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 2: Trading Opportunities.

US bear market Act 1 likely over, rebound is a selling opportunity as previous highs won't be reached. High-income consumer companies are good...

Rikki Malik

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Strong Earnings, Soft Share Price – What’s Driving the Disconnect?

The ongoing share price weakness despite strong results likely reflects a combination of technical factors, such as lock-up related selling, and...

Devi Subhakesan

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Lockup Expiry Ahead. After 2000% Rally, Is There Still Shine Left?

Post Lockup expiry, What's next? Outlook on gold price matters. Also, a potential stock split could broaden investor participation, improve...

Devi Subhakesan

Laopu Gold (6181 HK): Heritage Luxury, Guochao Appeal. Key Facts, Financials & Valuation

Laopu Gold's multiples are not too steep given strong earnings growth outlook. Investors however need to weigh its upside potential against...

Devi Subhakesan

Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 2: Trading Opportunities.

​US bear market Act 1 likely over, rebound is a selling opportunity as previous highs won't be reached. High-income consumer companies are good...

Rikki Malik

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

US bear market Act 1 likely over, rebound is a selling opportunity as previous highs won't be reached. High-income consumer companies are good...