European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Arnault family proposes a cash OPR at 95% of CDI's look-through NAV, based on LVMH's one-month VWAP ahead of the December EGM.</li>
<li>At €425.40, CDI trades at 91.7% of current NAV, versus the proposed 95% exit level, implying 3.6% gross upside at current LVMH prices.</li>
<li>Long CDI / short ~1.11 LVMH hedges most of the initial market exposure, with the short reduced progressively as the December VWAP fixes.</li>
</ul>


Arnault family proposes a cash OPR at 95% of CDI's look-through NAV, based on LVMH's one-month VWAP ahead of the December EGM.
At €425.40, CDI trades at 91.7% of current NAV, versus the proposed 95% exit level, implying 3.6% gross upside at current LVMH prices.
Long CDI / short ~1.11 LVMH hedges most of the initial market exposure, with the short reduced progressively as the December VWAP fixes.


Podcast on In-depth Business Talks, Speedwell Research

The Synopsis

Podcast on In-depth Business Talks

Speedwell Research

Speedwell Research spends hundreds of hours researching public businesses each month and in "The Synopsis" they share their key learnings. Most business podcasts are superficial and assume their listeners are unsophisticated. In contrast, The Synopsis trusts listeners are interested in learning about complex, industry-specific issues, so long as they are explained clearly. We cover businesses from inception to current day, coupling business analysis and an investors lens. Start listening today to become a better analyst and investor.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>New newsletter format called "The Briefing" provides quick market synopsis and company information, also available in podcast form on speedwellmemos.com</li><li>Recent market events include S&amp;P 500 reaching all-time high before job report and new tariffs cause market to drop, Fed considering rate cut in response to softening economy</li><li>President Trump criticizes Fed Chair Powell for not lowering rates, Powell cautious on rate cuts to avoid inflation, history of rate mistakes highlighted</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

New newsletter format called "The Briefing" provides quick market synopsis and company information, also available in podcast form on speedwellmemos.comRecent market events include S&amp;P 500 reaching all-time high before job report and new tariffs cause market to drop, Fed considering rate cut in response to softening economyPresident Trump criticizes Fed Chair Powell for not lowering rates, Powell cautious on rate cuts to avoid inflation, history of rate mistakes highlightedThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Briefing. Massive Jobs Restatement, Rates Go Nowhere, Apple M&A?, Earnings Updates

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>Act 1 of the US bear market is likely complete, with diverging price signals from stocks, bonds and the dollar.</li>
<li>This will be a rebound bounce to sell into, as we are not going back to previous highs.</li>
<li>Looking at companies servicing high-income consumers is a good hunting ground for shorts.</li>
</ul>


Act 1 of the US bear market is likely complete, with diverging price signals from stocks, bonds and the dollar.
This will be a rebound bounce to sell into, as we are not going back to previous highs.
Looking at companies servicing high-income consumers is a good hunting ground for shorts.


Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 2:  Trading Opportunities.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI. Discussed in latest Int’l Compass (1/9/2025) how viewed the pullback as buying opportunity and were watching for $116-$117 support to hold on ACWI-US.
$116 support held perfectly and we expect upside to continue following 1+ month bull flag breakouts, followed by successful retests of support, on ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500.
We also upgraded Germany to overweight last week, with RS on the DAX breaking out from a 2-year base. U.S. (SPX) and Germany are our only two country overweights.


Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>68.2% of global equity funds are positioned ahead of the benchmark in France, with an average overweight of 2%, making it the second largest country overweight after the UK.</li>
<li>France is currently the second largest country overweight after the UK, effectively offsetting some of the underweights in the USA, China &amp; Hong Kong, and Australia.</li>
<li>Overweights driven by by Schneider Electric, L'Oreal, and LVMH, whilst Pernod Ricard and Sanofi see investor outflows.</li>
</ul>


68.2% of global equity funds are positioned ahead of the benchmark in France, with an average overweight of 2%, making it the second largest country overweight after the UK.
France is currently the second largest country overweight after the UK, effectively offsetting some of the underweights in the USA, China &amp; Hong Kong, and Australia.
Overweights driven by by Schneider Electric, L'Oreal, and LVMH, whilst Pernod Ricard and Sanofi see investor outflows.


France:  Global Funds Overweight Ahead of Snap Election

France

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE is a diversified luxury goods group. The Company produces and sells wine, cognac, perfumes, cosmetics, luggage, and watches and jewelry.

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (MC FP)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (MC FP)

Christian Dior: Tailoring the LVMH Hedge

Dior’s floating-price OPR creates an unusual relative-value setup. We look at what the current price implies and how to hedge the LVMH exposure...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Briefing. Massive Jobs Restatement, Rates Go Nowhere, Apple M&A?, Earnings Updates

The new "The Briefing" newsletter format aims to provide a quick overview of market events, with the latest report highlighting the S&P 500's...

The Synopsis

Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 2: Trading Opportunities.

US bear market Act 1 likely over, rebound is a selling opportunity as previous highs won't be reached. High-income consumer companies are good...

Rikki Malik

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

France: Global Funds Overweight Ahead of Snap Election

Global equity fund managers are entering the French election with an overweight position compared to the SPDRs MSCI ACWI ETF benchmark

Steven Holden

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Christian Dior: Tailoring the LVMH Hedge

Dior’s floating-price OPR creates an unusual relative-value setup. We look at what the current price implies and how to hedge the LVMH exposure...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Briefing. Massive Jobs Restatement, Rates Go Nowhere, Apple M&A?, Earnings Updates

The new "The Briefing" newsletter format aims to provide a quick overview of market events, with the latest report highlighting the S&P 500's...

The Synopsis

Investors Have that “Oh Sh#t Moment” - Part 2: Trading Opportunities.

​US bear market Act 1 likely over, rebound is a selling opportunity as previous highs won't be reached. High-income consumer companies are good...

Rikki Malik

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI ACWI Ex-US and EAFE

Remain Risk-On With Market Dynamics Improving; 6+ Month Base Breakouts for MSCI $ACWI ex-US and $EAFE; U.S. Dollar $DXY and 10-Year Yields $TNX...

Vermilion Research

France: Global Funds Overweight Ahead of Snap Election

Global equity fund managers are entering the French election with an overweight position compared to the SPDRs MSCI ACWI ETF benchmark

Steven Holden

US bear market Act 1 likely over, rebound is a selling opportunity as previous highs won't be reached. High-income consumer companies are good...