'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

DOUBLE-DIGIT YOY GROWTH BUT RISING COSTS A CONCERN- 27% of Japanese listed companies reported earnings results last week. In aggregate, the group saw year-on-year trailing-twelve-month (TTM) growth in revenue and operating income of 10.7% and 19.0%, respectively.  The quarter-on-quarter growth rates are, however, showing a declining trend. TTM quarter-on-quarter revenue growth for this group has slowed from 3.4% in the quarter but last to 2.2% and operating income growth has declined from 8.0%…

DOUBLE-DIGIT YOY GROWTH BUT RISING COSTS A CONCERN- 27% of Japanese listed companies reported earnings results last week. In aggregate, the group saw year-on-year trailing-twelve-month (TTM) growth in revenue and operating income of 10.7% and 19.0%, respectively.  The quarter-on-quarter growth rates are, however, showing a declining trend. TTM quarter-on-quarter revenue growth for this group has slowed from 3.4% in the quarter but last to 2.2% and operating income growth has declined from 8.0%…

Japan: Results & Revisions Update - Slowing Momentum Confirmed

CYCLICAL SECTORS RALLY WITH THE MARKET - Japanese equities have rallied 3.6% over the last two weeks, and the market composite is now flat since the end of April. Mean reversion was widespread and the range from worst to best three-month change narrowed from 22.5% to 18.1%. Banks, Energy, Chemicals, and Metals led, while REITs, Media,Telcom and Retail lagged. Domestic growth sectors (Internet, Commercial Services, Information Technology and Healthcare) are still well ahead over three months…

CYCLICAL SECTORS RALLY WITH THE MARKET - Japanese equities have rallied 3.6% over the last two weeks, and the market composite is now flat since the end of April. Mean reversion was widespread and the range from worst to best three-month change narrowed from 22.5% to 18.1%. Banks, Energy, Chemicals, and Metals led, while REITs, Media,Telcom and Retail lagged. Domestic growth sectors (Internet, Commercial Services, Information Technology and Healthcare) are still well ahead over three months…

Japan Fortnightly Update: Banks to Neutral/Utilities to Negative - Results Momentum Still Slowing

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

The shares are down 28% from their 52-week high, but still selling at 75x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-22. Is it time to buy into the decline? Over the past month, the shares have rebounded by 8%.Nihon M&amp;A Center is more expensive than listed competitors M&amp;A Capital Partners and Strike, but much larger in terms of sales and many times larger in terms of market cap. If you want a liquid play on M&amp;A, this is it.Annual revenue growth has remained above 12% through the COVID-19 pandemic and margins have remained stable. The number of new M&amp;A mandates increased by 15.5% in FY Mar-21 to a level 24% greater than the number of transactions completed.Management's guidance is usually conservative and looks to be so again this year. On a 3-year view, we expect revenues and profits to rise by about 40%. On a 6-year view, they could double.All in all, we think the M&amp;A opportunity in Japan outweighs the risks, which include another wave of COVID infections and macro-economic difficulties.

The shares are down 28% from their 52-week high, but still selling at 75x management's EPS guidance for FY Mar-22. Is it time to buy into the decline? Over the past month, the shares have rebounded by 8%.Nihon M&amp;A Center is more expensive than listed competitors M&amp;A Capital Partners and Strike, but much larger in terms of sales and many times larger in terms of market cap. If you want a liquid play on M&amp;A, this is it.Annual revenue growth has remained above 12% through the COVID-19 pandemic and margins have remained stable. The number of new M&amp;A mandates increased by 15.5% in FY Mar-21 to a level 24% greater than the number of transactions completed.Management's guidance is usually conservative and looks to be so again this year. On a 3-year view, we expect revenues and profits to rise by about 40%. On a 6-year view, they could double.All in all, we think the M&amp;A opportunity in Japan outweighs the risks, which include another wave of COVID infections and macro-economic difficulties.

Nihon M&A (2127 JP): The Most Liquid Way to Play Japan's Structural M&A Opportunity

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term, Urbem (HK) Limited

Urbem Capital

Quality-first, Business-perspective, Long-term

<ul>
<li>The aging population is among the most unarguable mega-trends in today's world and can act as both a powerful headwind and a tailwind (for some industries);</li>
<li>In the past, I have touched upon some businesses benefiting drastically from the demographic tailwind, but admittedly, most of them are well recognized, and hence, expensive;</li>
<li>In this episode, I would like to discuss one more name monetizing the aging population in the Far East;</li>
<li>While being lesser-known, Kato Holdings appears to be a decent candidate to beat my 20% hurdle rate and become a multi-bagger in the foreseeable future.</li>
</ul>


The aging population is among the most unarguable mega-trends in today's world and can act as both a powerful headwind and a tailwind (for some industries);
In the past, I have touched upon some businesses benefiting drastically from the demographic tailwind, but admittedly, most of them are well recognized, and hence, expensive;
In this episode, I would like to discuss one more name monetizing the aging population in the Far East;
While being lesser-known, Kato Holdings appears to be a decent candidate to beat my 20% hurdle rate and become a multi-bagger in the foreseeable future.


One Hidden Gem Monetizing The Aging Population

<ul>
<li>Japan's largest M&amp;A advisor for SMEs reported its Q2 results for the current FY ending March 2021;</li>
<li>The company continued to underperform its major peers in growth throughout the pandemic;</li>
<li>The economic moat remained intact, in our opinion, and venturing businesses kept booming;</li>
<li>We see the decline in volume as a major risk to our previous valuation assumption and will keep a close eye in this regard.</li>
</ul>


Japan's largest M&amp;A advisor for SMEs reported its Q2 results for the current FY ending March 2021;
The company continued to underperform its major peers in growth throughout the pandemic;
The economic moat remained intact, in our opinion, and venturing businesses kept booming;
We see the decline in volume as a major risk to our previous valuation assumption and will keep a close eye in this regard.


Nihon M&A Center: Our Takeaways From The Q2 Results

Japan

M&A Capital Partners Co., Ltd. is an M&A advisory firm. The Company provides advisory service in M&A due diligence, business strategy, corporate regeneration, capital increase strategy to support owners of small and medium companies with business succession.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

M&A Capital Partners (6080 JP)

Japan: Results & Revisions Update - Slowing Momentum Confirmed

DOUBLE-DIGIT YOY GROWTH BUT RISING COSTS A CONCERN- 27% of Japanese listed companies reported earnings results last week. In aggregate, the group...

Campbell Gunn

Japan Fortnightly Update: Banks to Neutral/Utilities to Negative - Results Momentum Still Slowing

CYCLICAL SECTORS RALLY WITH THE MARKET - Japanese equities have rallied 3.6% over the last two weeks, and the market composite is now flat since...

Campbell Gunn

Nihon M&A (2127 JP): The Most Liquid Way to Play Japan's Structural M&A Opportunity

The most liquid play on Japan's structural M&A opportunity. Share price down 28% from its 52-week high. Not cheap, but sales and profits could rise...

Scott Foster

One Hidden Gem Monetizing The Aging Population

While being lesser-known, this Hong Kong-based micro-cap appears fundamentally strong and reasonably priced to beat my 20% hurdle rate and become a...

Urbem Capital

Nihon M&A Center: Our Takeaways From The Q2 Results

Despite the formidable economic moat, superior profitability, and booming venturing businesses, we would stay cautious concerning the near-term...

Urbem Capital

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)