Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Commercial paper (CP) market is for short-term working capital loans, and growth in most recent week is very strong, up 41% YoY. </li>
<li>We view the CP market as a good view on bank credit demand, underlying credit demand for working capital, which can lead to more investment. </li>
<li>Loan loss reserve (LLR) data is exceptional, in that it is almost not rising at all, with the latest week's growth rate down to just 1.1% YoY</li>
</ul>


Commercial paper (CP) market is for short-term working capital loans, and growth in most recent week is very strong, up 41% YoY. 
We view the CP market as a good view on bank credit demand, underlying credit demand for working capital, which can lead to more investment. 
Loan loss reserve (LLR) data is exceptional, in that it is almost not rising at all, with the latest week's growth rate down to just 1.1% YoY


US Banks - Commercial Paper +41% YoY in Most Recent Week, Loans +4.7%, LLR Growth Dwindles +1.1%

<ul>
<li>Enhanced financial data from the Fed shows off balance sheet loan commitments rising strongly now +3.7% YoY in 2Q25 (quarterly data only, just released)</li>
<li>Data suggests that loan growth we see for US banks (in weekly HFD) is not being driven by off B/S moving on B/S, rather it is true underlying demand</li>
<li>Newly release Probability of Default (PD) for credit card loans in the US is very positive, with thew worst bucket of &gt;20% PD falling to just 3.0% of loans</li>
</ul>


Enhanced financial data from the Fed shows off balance sheet loan commitments rising strongly now +3.7% YoY in 2Q25 (quarterly data only, just released)
Data suggests that loan growth we see for US banks (in weekly HFD) is not being driven by off B/S moving on B/S, rather it is true underlying demand
Newly release Probability of Default (PD) for credit card loans in the US is very positive, with thew worst bucket of &gt;20% PD falling to just 3.0% of loans


US Banks - Off B/S Growth +3.7% YoY in New 2Q25 Data, Credit Card PD Improve Dramatically

<ul>
<li>Weekly balance sheets at US banks show a strong economy, and likely far better 3Q25 results for banks</li>
<li>Credit growth continues to accelerate, now at 4.67% YoY, weekly CP data is very strong, at +26% YoY</li>
<li>Credit metrics appear very strong, with LLR growing at almost nothing, at 1.36% YoY and less than 2% YoY for all weeks so far in this quarter</li>
</ul>


Weekly balance sheets at US banks show a strong economy, and likely far better 3Q25 results for banks
Credit growth continues to accelerate, now at 4.67% YoY, weekly CP data is very strong, at +26% YoY
Credit metrics appear very strong, with LLR growing at almost nothing, at 1.36% YoY and less than 2% YoY for all weeks so far in this quarter


US Banks - Weekly Loans Accelerate to 4.67% YoY, LLR at Only +1.36% YoY, CP +26% YoY

<ul>
<li>Weekly HFD for large US banks shows a profit-positive picture in latest data through 18 December</li>
<li>Loan growth is accelerating in the week and in the past few weeks, with a steady rise in the pace of growth since late November</li>
<li>Where large US banks are growing loans more aggressively, but seeing more negative growth in higher cost Jumbo Deposits, this can be highly positive for core income</li>
</ul>


Weekly HFD for large US banks shows a profit-positive picture in latest data through 18 December
Loan growth is accelerating in the week and in the past few weeks, with a steady rise in the pace of growth since late November
Where large US banks are growing loans more aggressively, but seeing more negative growth in higher cost Jumbo Deposits, this can be highly positive for core income


US Banks - Weekly Loans Surge at Large Banks, With -Ve YoY Growth CRE, Jumbo Deposits Down

Market Intelligence, ORTEX

ORTEX Market Intel

Market Intelligence

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Short sellers made bold moves the week of August 31.</li><li>MOO saw the most dramatic buildup - short interest tripled in seven days.</li><li>At the other end, MSFT shorts nearly disappeared entirely, and GME saw rapid covering ahead of its September 8 earnings.</li></ul>

Short sellers made bold moves the week of August 31.MOO saw the most dramatic buildup - short interest tripled in seven days.At the other end, MSFT shorts nearly disappeared entirely, and GME saw rapid covering ahead of its September 8 earnings.

Bears Press Hard: MOO Triples, GME Covers, MSFT Shorts Vanish

United States

M&T Bank Corporation is a bank holding company. The Company, through its banking subsidiaries, offer a variety of commercial banking, trust, and investment services to their customers.  M&T Bank operates branch offices in New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware, New Jersey, Virginia, West Virginia and the District of Columbia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

M & T Bank Corp (MTB US)

US Banks - Commercial Paper +41% YoY in Most Recent Week, Loans +4.7%, LLR Growth Dwindles +1.1%

Weekly data strengthens in US credit: CP shows 41% growth YoY in outstandings in most recent week. The small 1.1% growth rate of LLR for banks,...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Off B/S Growth +3.7% YoY in New 2Q25 Data, Credit Card PD Improve Dramatically

US bank's off balance sheet data is just out, showing good, improving growth in commitments, suggesting underlying loan growth is real demand, not...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly Loans Accelerate to 4.67% YoY, LLR at Only +1.36% YoY, CP +26% YoY

Weekly balance sheets for US banks show accelerating 4.67% loan growth, and weekly CP data is very strong at +26% YoY. Credit metrics appear...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly Loans Surge at Large Banks, With -Ve YoY Growth CRE, Jumbo Deposits Down

Weekly HFD data for large US banks is highly positive: loans accelerating, not CRE loans, with less growth in high cost jumbo deposits, and also...

Daniel Tabbush

Bears Press Hard: MOO Triples, GME Covers, MSFT Shorts Vanish

Short sellers made bold moves the week of August 31. MOO saw the most dramatic buildup - short interest tripled in seven days. At the other end,...

ORTEX Market Intel

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)