Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> reported 3QFY03/2024 results today. Both revenue and OP decreased 1.6% and 7.5% YoY respectively and fell below consensus estimates.</li>
<li>Medical Platform’s revenues declined YoY while overseas segment’s top line growth has been slowing down raising concerns over m3’s growth prospects.</li>
<li>Given continued decline in earnings, it seems that m3 will struggle to meet its full-year guidance suggesting there is further downside.</li>
</ul>



M3 Inc (2413 JP) reported 3QFY03/2024 results today. Both revenue and OP decreased 1.6% and 7.5% YoY respectively and fell below consensus estimates.
Medical Platform’s revenues declined YoY while overseas segment’s top line growth has been slowing down raising concerns over m3’s growth prospects.
Given continued decline in earnings, it seems that m3 will struggle to meet its full-year guidance suggesting there is further downside.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of January 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$2bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~34%. </li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of January 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$2bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~34%. 
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2024: Newmark, Eureka, Aoki, Medley, Payroll, Kerry Express, Genetron, TDCX

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>Ahead of the 17 January close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/m3-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13316:1" rel="noopener">M3 Inc (2413 JP)</a> has extended the close of its offer to 15 February due to a request from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>The merger arb situation has four parties with different priorities – the Board, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasona-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15778:1" rel="noopener">Pasona Group (2168 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP)</a> (with a pre-conditional JPY2,123 offer) and M3.</li>
<li>The Board and Pasona want the highest possible price. M3's inability to table a revised offer suggests that Dai-ichi Life has set the bar too high. </li>
</ul>


Ahead of the 17 January close, M3 Inc (2413 JP) has extended the close of its offer to 15 February due to a request from Benefit One Inc (2412 JP).
The merger arb situation has four parties with different priorities – the Board, Pasona Group (2168 JP), Dai Ichi Life Insurance (8750 JP) (with a pre-conditional JPY2,123 offer) and M3.
The Board and Pasona want the highest possible price. M3's inability to table a revised offer suggests that Dai-ichi Life has set the bar too high. 


Benefit One (2412 JP): Who Will Blink First as M3 Extends the Closing Date?

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amer-sports-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21751:1" rel="noopener">Amer Sports (AS US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ola-electric-mobility-pvt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40618:1" rel="noopener">Ola Electric (1700674D IN)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a> IPOs.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guppy-s-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40692:1" rel="noopener">GUPPY's Inc (5127 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weiqiao-textile-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3690:1" rel="noopener">Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genetron-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28435:1" rel="noopener">Genetron Holdings Ltd (GTH US)</a>. </li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Amer Sports (AS US), Ola Electric (1700674D IN) and Mixue Group (MIX HK) IPOs.
Event-Driven developments - Benefit One Inc (2412 JP), GUPPY's Inc (5127 JP), T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK), Genetron Holdings Ltd (GTH US). 


Weekly Deals Digest (21 Jan) - Benefit One, GUPPY's, T&K Toka, Weiqiao, Genetron, Amer Sports

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dai-ichi-life-insurance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1109:1" rel="noopener">Dai Ichi Life (8750 JP)</a> has the wherewithal, and probably the synergies to make a bump for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One (2412 JP)</a> work. M3 is clearly not in the driver's seat.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-united-network-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12620:1" rel="noopener">China United Network (600050 CH)</a> is, for all intent and purpose, a pseudo-A to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-unicom-hong-kong-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1016:1" rel="noopener">China Unicom (762 HK)</a>. Go long Unicom, short United due to Unicom's significantly cheaper valuation.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhejiang-expressway-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2178:1" rel="noopener">Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK)</a> has had a stonking run since its rights issue. Look to unwind this set-up and take the other side: short Expressway, long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zheshang-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29981:1" rel="noopener">Zheshang Securities (601878 CH)</a>.
</li>
</ul>



Dai Ichi Life (8750 JP) has the wherewithal, and probably the synergies to make a bump for Benefit One (2412 JP) work. M3 is clearly not in the driver's seat.

China United Network (600050 CH) is, for all intent and purpose, a pseudo-A to China Unicom (762 HK). Go long Unicom, short United due to Unicom's significantly cheaper valuation.

Zhejiang Expressway (576 HK) has had a stonking run since its rights issue. Look to unwind this set-up and take the other side: short Expressway, long Zheshang Securities (601878 CH).



Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, China Unicom, Zhejiang Expressway/ Zheshang Sec, Hollysys

Japan

M3, Inc. supplies medical information services for doctors through the Internet. The Company also supports marketing of pharmaceutical companies and medical equipment manufacturers.

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M3 Inc (2413 JP)

M3: Earnings Slowdown Is Inevitable

M3's revenues and OP declined YoY in 3Q falling below consensus estimates. Medical Platform reported YoY decline in revenues while Overseas...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2024: Newmark, Eureka, Aoki, Medley, Payroll, Kerry Express, Genetron, TDCX

For the month of January 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of...

David Blennerhassett

Benefit One (2412 JP): Who Will Blink First as M3 Extends the Closing Date?

Dai-ichi Life updates on the progress of the Benefit One tender. Discussions continue with the aim of commencing the offer in mid-February (aligns...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (21 Jan) - Benefit One, GUPPY's, T&K Toka, Weiqiao, Genetron, Amer Sports

Notable developments in Event-Driven (Benefit One, Guppy's, TK Toka, Weiqiao Textile, Genetron) and ECM (Amer Sports, Ola Electric, Mixue).

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, China Unicom, Zhejiang Expressway/ Zheshang Sec, Hollysys

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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M3: Earnings Slowdown Is Inevitable

​M3's revenues and OP declined YoY in 3Q falling below consensus estimates. Medical Platform reported YoY decline in revenues while Overseas...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2024: Newmark, Eureka, Aoki, Medley, Payroll, Kerry Express, Genetron, TDCX

For the month of January 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of...

David Blennerhassett

Benefit One (2412 JP): Who Will Blink First as M3 Extends the Closing Date?

Dai-ichi Life updates on the progress of the Benefit One tender. Discussions continue with the aim of commencing the offer in mid-February (aligns...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (21 Jan) - Benefit One, GUPPY's, T&K Toka, Weiqiao, Genetron, Amer Sports

Notable developments in Event-Driven (Benefit One, Guppy's, TK Toka, Weiqiao Textile, Genetron) and ECM (Amer Sports, Ola Electric, Mixue).

Arun George

Last Week in Event SPACE: Benefit One, China Unicom, Zhejiang Expressway/ Zheshang Sec, Hollysys

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

M3's revenues and OP declined YoY in 3Q falling below consensus estimates. Medical Platform reported YoY decline in revenues while Overseas...