'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/083/132/original/2019-03-25_18-58-11.png?1553507902" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="83132"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as Internet businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33 Information &amp; Communication sub-Sector but is broader in that it encompasses all companies listed on all sections and exchanges but is also narrower in that we have excluded Telecommunications (including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">S</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">oftbank Group (9984 JP)</a>) and Information Technology companies. We have adopted a 'quantamental' approach which covers the long-term and current trends for Japan's Internet Sector as a whole, as well as eight sub-Sectors or Peer Groups and the Sectors' leading companies by market capitalisation.  Our focus is exclusively on the locally-listed universe and is based on disclosed financial and market data. We do not provide any forecasts, other than the companies' own forecasts and we do not attempt to make any business model or strategic judgments. Our focus is purely on financial and market performance. We do not cover unlisted and defunct companies such as Livedoor and, therefore, there is implicit survivor bias in the data. The broad themes that are developed in DETAIL below are grouped into six topics as follows: - • SUMMARY •  • FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW •  • SCORING - RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS / RELATIVE PRICE •  • RESULTS TRENDS •  • VALUATION • • RECOMMENDATIONS •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/083/206/original/2019-03-25_17-46-58.png?1553565764" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="83206"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>OVERVIEW - As will be covered in greater DETAIL below, Japan has failed to evolve a substantial Internet Sector and, in many business models, has been passed by global competitors including in the home market. Although Internet Sector revenues have grown steadily and now account for close to 1% of the total for all listed companies, operating margins have declined by half in the last seven years and are now only four percentage points higher than the market average. Accordingly, as measured by our Results &amp; Revision Score, the Sector is close to a twelve-year low. The market's response is an unchanged Sector weight in the market composite despite the addition of 111 new companies in the last six years, and a Relative Price Score that has moved in a narrow range over that period. The Sector averages disguise the weak business and market performance of a handful of Sector leaders as well as the overvaluation of the Sector's more successful business models, which is partly a result of a lack of alternatives. Despite the world's most significant Internet investor - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/315" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a>'s Vision Fund - being based in Japan, this fund and other global investors in Internet business have been right to give Japan a 'pass'.


Source: Japan Analytics
There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as Internet businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33 Information &amp; Communication sub-Sector but is broader in that it encompasses all companies listed on all sections and exchanges but is also narrower in that we have excluded Telecommunications (including Softbank Group (9984 JP)) and Information Technology companies. We have adopted a 'quantamental' approach which covers the long-term and current trends for Japan's Internet Sector as a whole, as well as eight sub-Sectors or Peer Groups and the Sectors' leading companies by market capitalisation.  Our focus is exclusively on the locally-listed universe and is based on disclosed financial and market data. We do not provide any forecasts, other than the companies' own forecasts and we do not attempt to make any business model or strategic judgments. Our focus is purely on financial and market performance. We do not cover unlisted and defunct companies such as Livedoor and, therefore, there is implicit survivor bias in the data. The broad themes that are developed in DETAIL below are grouped into six topics as follows: - • SUMMARY •  • FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW •  • SCORING - RESULTS &amp; REVISIONS / RELATIVE PRICE •  • RESULTS TRENDS •  • VALUATION • • RECOMMENDATIONS •Source: Japan AnalyticsOVERVIEW - As will be covered in greater DETAIL below, Japan has failed to evolve a substantial Internet Sector and, in many business models, has been passed by global competitors including in the home market. Although Internet Sector revenues have grown steadily and now account for close to 1% of the total for all listed companies, operating margins have declined by half in the last seven years and are now only four percentage points higher than the market average. Accordingly, as measured by our Results &amp; Revision Score, the Sector is close to a twelve-year low. The market's response is an unchanged Sector weight in the market composite despite the addition of 111 new companies in the last six years, and a Relative Price Score that has moved in a narrow range over that period. The Sector averages disguise the weak business and market performance of a handful of Sector leaders as well as the overvaluation of the Sector's more successful business models, which is partly a result of a lack of alternatives. Despite the world's most significant Internet investor - Softbank Group (9984 JP)'s Vision Fund - being based in Japan, this fund and other global investors in Internet business have been right to give Japan a 'pass'. 

🇯🇵 Japan • Internet Sector Review - 'Japan Passing'

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes to a global index in May will be announced pre-market open Wednesday and will be implemented at the close of trading on 29 May.</li>
<li>The big market moves since the last rebalance result in many changes with the final number dependent on the day picked to compute market cap and free float market cap.</li>
<li>There have been big price moves in stocks over the last few months with the forecast adds continuing to perform well and the forecast deletes beginning to catch a bid.</li>
</ul>


The changes to a global index in May will be announced pre-market open Wednesday and will be implemented at the close of trading on 29 May.
The big market moves since the last rebalance result in many changes with the final number dependent on the day picked to compute market cap and free float market cap.
There have been big price moves in stocks over the last few months with the forecast adds continuing to perform well and the forecast deletes beginning to catch a bid.


Global Index: Potential Changes in May for Asia Pac

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

We screened for large-cap names in Japan that have recently seen a spike in volatility. We calculated Beta over the last 6 months and compared it to the 7-year average Beta. We then screened for names where current Beta is more than 1.5 standard deviations above the 7-year average.As you can see from the results below, a number of names have really moved away from their historical average. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6311" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6311:1">Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma (4508 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/794" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:794:1">Mitsubishi Motors Corp (7211 JP)</a> are both close to 3 standard…

We screened for large-cap names in Japan that have recently seen a spike in volatility. We calculated Beta over the last 6 months and compared it to the 7-year average Beta. We then screened for names where current Beta is more than 1.5 standard deviations above the 7-year average.As you can see from the results below, a number of names have really moved away from their historical average. Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma (4508 JP) and Mitsubishi Motors Corp (7211 JP) are both close to 3 standard…

Large-Cap Names that Have Gotten a Lot More Volatile Recently....

Earning Season in Japan starts next week and we wanted to highlight names that need very strong 4Q numbers to get to consensus estimates and names that are well position to beat consensus OP estimates. We put together two screens, the first looks for names that have not done very well in the first 3 quarters of this year.<h2>Screen Criteria</h2><ol>
<li>Mkt-cap greater than ¥75bn</li>
<li>Companies that have achieved less than 70% of FY1 consensus Operating Profit</li>
<li>4-year median % achieved in first 3 quarters is greater than…</li>
</ol>

Earning Season in Japan starts next week and we wanted to highlight names that need very strong 4Q numbers to get to consensus estimates and names that are well position to beat consensus OP estimates. We put together two screens, the first looks for names that have not done very well in the first 3 quarters of this year.Screen Criteria
Mkt-cap greater than ¥75bn
Companies that have achieved less than 70% of FY1 consensus Operating Profit
4-year median % achieved in first 3 quarters is greater than…


Japanese Names that Should Easily Beat FY1 Consensus OP and Names that Will Have a Hard Time...

Pharma/ Biotechnology Investments Specialist, Vasuda Capital Management

Dr. Bhavneesh Sharma, MD, MBA

Pharma/ Biotechnology Investments Specialist

Vasuda Capital Management

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10370" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10370:1">Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD US)</a>, our portfolio company announced the initiation of a phase 2 study of Nuplazid in Alzheimer's related agitation, an area of great unmet need. Alzheimer's related agitation could be even a larger potential market than Alzheimer-related psychosis (ADP). The drug is already in a phase 2 trial for ADP and results are expected later this year (which could provide an upward boost to the stock). We recommend accumulating the stock on current weakness. Our price…

 Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD US), our portfolio company announced the initiation of a phase 2 study of Nuplazid in Alzheimer's related agitation, an area of great unmet need. Alzheimer's related agitation could be even a larger potential market than Alzheimer-related psychosis (ADP). The drug is already in a phase 2 trial for ADP and results are expected later this year (which could provide an upward boost to the stock). We recommend accumulating the stock on current weakness. Our price…

Some Actionable Ideas in the Biotechnology and Pharmaceutical Sector: October 31 Sector Update

Japan

M3, Inc. supplies medical information services for doctors through the Internet. The Company also supports marketing of pharmaceutical companies and medical equipment manufacturers.

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M3 Inc (2413 JP)

🇯🇵 Japan • Internet Sector Review - 'Japan Passing'

There are currently 241 listed Japanese companies that can be categorised as Internet businesses. Our classification overlaps with the TOPIX-33...

Campbell Gunn

Global Index: Potential Changes in May for Asia Pac

The index rebalances at the close tomorrow and there will be huge volume in the constituent changes at the close. Since announcement, the adds have...

Brian Freitas

Large-Cap Names that Have Gotten a Lot More Volatile Recently....

We screened for large-cap names in Japan that have recently seen a spike in volatility. We calculated Beta over the last 6 months and compared it...

Custom Products Group

Japanese Names that Should Easily Beat FY1 Consensus OP and Names that Will Have a Hard Time...

Earning Season in Japan starts next week and we wanted to highlight names that need very strong 4Q numbers to get to consensus estimates and names...

Custom Products Group

Some Actionable Ideas in the Biotechnology and Pharmaceutical Sector: October 31 Sector Update

Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc (ACAD US), our portfolio company announced the initiation of a phase 2 study of Nuplazid in Alzheimer's related...

Dr. Bhavneesh Sharma, MD, MBA

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