Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASPs remain under pressure as STO, J&amp;T gain volume share in ground segment</li>
<li>March showed a surprising slowdown in pace of international volume growth</li>
<li>We believe Q423 and Q124 company-level profitability will mostly disappoint</li>
</ul>


ASPs remain under pressure as STO, J&amp;T gain volume share in ground segment
March showed a surprising slowdown in pace of international volume growth
We believe Q423 and Q124 company-level profitability will mostly disappoint


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March ASPs Fell, Again | Volumes Moderated, Including X-Border

Cainiao Smart Logistics Network / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>A few weeks ago, Alibaba announced it would not seek IPO for CaiNiao</li>
<li>The change of plans could force BABA/CaiNiao to re-focus on profitability</li>
<li>BABA will reportedly buy rest of CaiNiao at US$10.2 bn valuation -- cheap!</li>
</ul>


A few weeks ago, Alibaba announced it would not seek IPO for CaiNiao
The change of plans could force BABA/CaiNiao to re-focus on profitability
BABA will reportedly buy rest of CaiNiao at US$10.2 bn valuation -- cheap!


Cancelling CaiNiao's IPO: What It Means for China's Express Sector (+Comment on Implied Valuation)

<ul>
<li>On April 9, J&amp;T disclosed operating stats from Q124 -- a positive surprise</li>
<li>We welcome the disclosure, but J&amp;T should also explain X-border's demise</li>
<li>We believe J&amp;T's China operation remains far less profitable than its peers'</li>
</ul>


On April 9, J&amp;T disclosed operating stats from Q124 -- a positive surprise
We welcome the disclosure, but J&amp;T should also explain X-border's demise
We believe J&amp;T's China operation remains far less profitable than its peers'


J&T Global Express Q124 Operating Stats: One Step Forward for Disclosure, & One Step Back

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>A week ahead of trial, a defendant in massive fraud case copped a plea</li>
<li>Terms of deal include guilty plea, asset forfeiture, restitution of US$158 mn</li>
<li>US investigation continues; are other Chinese companies involved in case?</li>
</ul>


A week ahead of trial, a defendant in massive fraud case copped a plea
Terms of deal include guilty plea, asset forfeiture, restitution of US$158 mn
US investigation continues; are other Chinese companies involved in case?


Postage Fraud Case Update: Guilty Plea, Asset Forfeiture, & Restitution Set at a Whopping US$158 Mn!

Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In an updated HKEX filing posted on September 28th, Lalatech disclosed H123 financial results</li>
<li>Solid Revenue growth plus sharp expense reductions led to +28 ppt OP margin expansion</li>
<li>Is this progress sustainable, defendable? Lalatech management needs to explain gains</li>
</ul>


In an updated HKEX filing posted on September 28th, Lalatech disclosed H123 financial results
Solid Revenue growth plus sharp expense reductions led to +28 ppt OP margin expansion
Is this progress sustainable, defendable? Lalatech management needs to explain gains


Lalatech IPO: New Filing's H123 P&L Shows Impressive Growth, Unanswered Questions

China

S.F. Holding Co., Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, and warehousing services. S.F. Holding operates worldwide.

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S.F. Holding (002352 CH)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March ASPs Fell, Again | Volumes Moderated, Including X-Border

Domestic parcel volume slowed in March, and unit pricing remains under pressure. In addition, it appears the previously strong growth of Chinese X...

Tracking Traffic

Cancelling CaiNiao's IPO: What It Means for China's Express Sector (+Comment on Implied Valuation)

In this insight we discuss the potential impact of Alibaba's decision not to list CaiNiao's shares, and offer a brief comment on the implied...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express Q124 Operating Stats: One Step Forward for Disclosure, & One Step Back

We were pleasantly surprised to see J&T disclose Q124 operating stats so promptly, but we still wonder why the company hasn't explained its abrupt...

Tracking Traffic

Postage Fraud Case Update: Guilty Plea, Asset Forfeiture, & Restitution Set at a Whopping US$158 Mn!

A defendant in a China-US postage fraud case pled guilty, accepted US$150+ mn in asset forfeitures & restitution, and will help authorities expand...

Tracking Traffic

Lalatech IPO: New Filing's H123 P&L Shows Impressive Growth, Unanswered Questions

For us, the most urgent questions for Lalatech still revolve around its "incredible" progress on cost control and how the company will successfully...

Tracking Traffic

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