Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>ASPs remain under pressure as STO, J&amp;T gain volume share in ground segment</li>
<li>March showed a surprising slowdown in pace of international volume growth</li>
<li>We believe Q423 and Q124 company-level profitability will mostly disappoint</li>
</ul>


ASPs remain under pressure as STO, J&amp;T gain volume share in ground segment
March showed a surprising slowdown in pace of international volume growth
We believe Q423 and Q124 company-level profitability will mostly disappoint


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March ASPs Fell, Again | Volumes Moderated, Including X-Border

<ul>
<li>Headline February numbers look pretty good -- but they're misleading</li>
<li>On a combined basis, January-February data show ASPs still under pressure</li>
<li>Recent results from ZTO and J&amp;T Global have been unimpressive, in our view</li>
</ul>


Headline February numbers look pretty good -- but they're misleading
On a combined basis, January-February data show ASPs still under pressure
Recent results from ZTO and J&amp;T Global have been unimpressive, in our view


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

<ul>
<li>Industry ASP declined -15.5% Y/Y in January to just 8.36 CNY, a record low</li>
<li>Despite strong volume (+85% Y/Y) some firms have likely turned unprofitable</li>
<li>International parcel growth strong; SF still avoiding worst of domestic price wars</li>
</ul>


Industry ASP declined -15.5% Y/Y in January to just 8.36 CNY, a record low
Despite strong volume (+85% Y/Y) some firms have likely turned unprofitable
International parcel growth strong; SF still avoiding worst of domestic price wars


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics provider, raised about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2023. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.</li>
<li>As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 25.4% market share as per 2023 parcel volume.</li>
<li>In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


J&amp;T Global Express, a global logistics provider, raised about US$500m in its Hong Kong IPO in Oct 2023. Its pre-IPO investors will be released from its IPO linked lockup soon.
As per Frost &amp; Sullivan (F&amp;S), the firm is the leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia, with a 25.4% market share as per 2023 parcel volume.
In this note, we talk about the upcoming lock-up expiry and possible deal dynamics.


J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn

<ul>
<li>December: strong volume growth, but worsening price declines for STO, Yunda</li>
<li>Recent trends in X-border parcel volume growth &amp; pricing moderated in December</li>
<li>In 2024, look for SF to continue its outpeformance; STO, Yunda should still lag</li>
</ul>


December: strong volume growth, but worsening price declines for STO, Yunda
Recent trends in X-border parcel volume growth &amp; pricing moderated in December
In 2024, look for SF to continue its outpeformance; STO, Yunda should still lag


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volumes Remain Firm | Domestic Pricing Worsens (January 2024)

China

S.F. Holding Co., Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, and warehousing services. S.F. Holding operates worldwide.

S.F. Holding (002352 CH)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | March ASPs Fell, Again | Volumes Moderated, Including X-Border

Domestic parcel volume slowed in March, and unit pricing remains under pressure. In addition, it appears the previously strong growth of Chinese X...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | ASPs Still Under Pressure | Weaker X-Border Volume? | (March 2024)

On a combined basis, January-February numbers show ground parcel ASPs still falling by over 10% Y/Y. YTD, we see a clear slowdown in X-border...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Industry ASP Fell to Record Low Last Month | (February 2024)

More operating days in January 2024 lifted parcel volume growth, but industry ASP declined to the lowest level on record. We believe at current...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express IPO Lock-Up Expiry - Tiny Float with 87%+ Stake Lockup Release Worth >US$8.8bn

J&T Global Express' IPO linked lockup expired over the weeked. The stock has been correcting over the past few weeks, especially with the CCASS...

Sumeet Singh

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Volumes Remain Firm | Domestic Pricing Worsens (January 2024)

Industry volume growth remains firm, but price pressure on domestic 'sort and transport' companies continued to increase in December. We expect SF...

Tracking Traffic