Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maanshan-dingtai-rare-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1" rel="noopener">S.F. Holding (002352 CH)</a> could raise between HK$26-33bn (US$3.4-4.2bn) in its H-share listing depending on the H-shares discount and exercise of the overallotment option.</li>
<li>The H-shares could get Fast Entry to certain indices and regular entry to others depending on the number of shares that are allotted to cornerstone and/or strategic investors.</li>
<li>The H-shares will be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the end of the price stabilisation period. Inclusion in the Hang Seng Composite Index will come later.</li>
</ul>



S.F. Holding (002352 CH) could raise between HK$26-33bn (US$3.4-4.2bn) in its H-share listing depending on the H-shares discount and exercise of the overallotment option.
The H-shares could get Fast Entry to certain indices and regular entry to others depending on the number of shares that are allotted to cornerstone and/or strategic investors.
The H-shares will be added to Southbound Stock Connect following the end of the price stabilisation period. Inclusion in the Hang Seng Composite Index will come later.


SF Holding (002352 CH): H-Share Listing & Index Implications

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In June, mainstream parcel pricing declined by over 10% Y/Y, but SF Holding saw ASPs rise</li>
<li>We believe J&amp;T Global Express' planned IPO could negatively impact the industry in H2</li>
<li>Pricing pressure has increased, in our view, and we expect margins to decline in H2 23</li>
</ul>


In June, mainstream parcel pricing declined by over 10% Y/Y, but SF Holding saw ASPs rise
We believe J&amp;T Global Express' planned IPO could negatively impact the industry in H2
Pricing pressure has increased, in our view, and we expect margins to decline in H2 23


Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Mainstream ASPs Down 10% in June | J&T IPO Impact? | (July 2023)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lalatech-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36848:1" rel="noopener">Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK)</a>, a leading logistics transaction platform, has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.  </li>
<li>In <em><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lalatech-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:108291" rel="noopener">Lalatech IPO: The Bull Case</a></strong></em>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on market share pressure, KPIs declining growth, declining revenue visibility, maiden profitability built on a shaky foundation and barely positive underlying FCF. </li>
</ul>



Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK), a leading logistics transaction platform, has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.  
In Lalatech IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on market share pressure, KPIs declining growth, declining revenue visibility, maiden profitability built on a shaky foundation and barely positive underlying FCF. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lalatech-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36848:1" rel="noopener">Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK)</a>, a leading logistics transaction platform, has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   </li>
<li>Lalatech is the largest logistics transaction platform in the world by closed-loop freight gross transaction value in the first half of 2022, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. </li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on solid growth, rising monetization rates, achieving maiden profitability, a shift to cash generation and a debt-free balance sheet.</li>
</ul>



Lalatech Holdings Co Ltd (LALA HK), a leading logistics transaction platform, has filed for an HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   
Lalatech is the largest logistics transaction platform in the world by closed-loop freight gross transaction value in the first half of 2022, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. 
The key elements of the bull case rest on solid growth, rising monetization rates, achieving maiden profitability, a shift to cash generation and a debt-free balance sheet.


Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 7th.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,104.6 million, led by consumer staples, financials, and offset by consumer discretionary, communication services, utilities.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Zte, BYD, Goertek, CATL, CMB, Moutai, Focus Media Information Technology.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of July 7th.
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$1,104.6 million, led by consumer staples, financials, and offset by consumer discretionary, communication services, utilities.
We highlight flows for Zte, BYD, Goertek, CATL, CMB, Moutai, Focus Media Information Technology.


Northbound Flows (Jul 7th): ZTE, BYD, Goertek, CATL, CMB, Moutai, Focus Media

China

S.F. Holding Co., Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, and warehousing services. S.F. Holding operates worldwide.

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S.F. Holding (002352 CH)

Monthly Chinese Express Tracker | Mainstream ASPs Down 10% in June | J&T IPO Impact? | (July 2023)

Monthly figures from the China-listed express companies show that parcel pricing continued to decline in June, with slowing e-commerce sales and...

Tracking Traffic

Lalatech IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on market share pressure, KPIs declining growth, declining revenue visibility, profitability built on a...

Arun George

Lalatech IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on solid growth, rising monetization rates, achieving maiden profitability, a shift to cash generation and a...

Arun George

Northbound Flows (Jul 7th): ZTE, BYD, Goertek, CATL, CMB, Moutai, Focus Media

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Zte, BYD, Goertek, CATL, CMB, Moutai, Focus Media.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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