Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In May, average pricing fell again Y/Y, and volume growth moderated somewhat vs April</li>
<li>We look forward to learning more about J&amp;T Global Express IPO and its path to profits</li>
<li>Check out the weird China-US postage fraud case and YTD share performance</li>
</ul>


In May, average pricing fell again Y/Y, and volume growth moderated somewhat vs April
We look forward to learning more about J&amp;T Global Express IPO and its path to profits
Check out the weird China-US postage fraud case and YTD share performance


Monthly Express Tracker | ASPs Down Again | Volume Growth Moderates | J&T Express IPO | (June 2023)

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

J&T Global Express  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>, a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   </li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/j-t-global-express-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104964" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case</a>, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.</li>
<li>The key elements of the bear case rest on organic revenue decline in SEA/China, deteriorating contract liabilities, SEA margin pressure, high cash burn and weak balance sheet.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH), a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   
In J&amp;T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case, we highlighted the key elements of the bull case. In this note, we outline the bear case.
The key elements of the bear case rest on organic revenue decline in SEA/China, deteriorating contract liabilities, SEA margin pressure, high cash burn and weak balance sheet.


<ul>
<li>Previously, we criticized CJ Logistics as unfocused, pursuing deals in low-margin segments around the world as if to fill a logistics 'Bingo!' card rather than in-line with a rational strategy</li>
<li>In recent years, investors have punished the company's shares, which have fallen by more than half since reaching a high of over 184,000 won per share in March 2021. </li>
<li>However, with management de-emphasizing its Global segment and focusing instead on the more promising Parcel / E-commerce line of business, there is cause for optimism, in our view</li>
</ul>


Previously, we criticized CJ Logistics as unfocused, pursuing deals in low-margin segments around the world as if to fill a logistics 'Bingo!' card rather than in-line with a rational strategy
In recent years, investors have punished the company's shares, which have fallen by more than half since reaching a high of over 184,000 won per share in March 2021. 
However, with management de-emphasizing its Global segment and focusing instead on the more promising Parcel / E-commerce line of business, there is cause for optimism, in our view


Catching Up With CJ Logistics (000120 KS): With Shares Beaten Down, Management Forced to Refocus

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-t-global-express" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36819:1" rel="noopener">J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH)</a>, a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   </li>
<li>J&amp;T is the number one express delivery operator in Southeast Asia by parcel volume from 2020 to 2022, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. </li>
<li>The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, market share gains, robust reported revenue growth and narrowing losses which set a path to profitability.</li>
</ul>



J&amp;T Global Express (1936374D CH), a leading express delivery business in Southeast Asia and China has filed for a HKEx IPO to raise US$1 billion, according to press reports.   
J&amp;T is the number one express delivery operator in Southeast Asia by parcel volume from 2020 to 2022, according to Frost &amp; Sullivan. 
The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, market share gains, robust reported revenue growth and narrowing losses which set a path to profitability.


China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>700.HK/NetEase: Tencent's in-development project codenamed "Paradise" started recruiting players for its closed beta test. </li>
<li>BGNE: AbbVie sued BeiGene over patent infringement on BRUKINSA (-)</li>
<li>002352.SZ: SF Express may cooperate with J&amp;T on international logistics (+)</li>
</ul>


700.HK/NetEase: Tencent's in-development project codenamed "Paradise" started recruiting players for its closed beta test. 
BGNE: AbbVie sued BeiGene over patent infringement on BRUKINSA (-)
002352.SZ: SF Express may cooperate with J&amp;T on international logistics (+)


China TMT Update - 700.HK/NTES/BGNE/2352.SZ: Tencent's In-Development Project "Paradise" Start Test.

China

S.F. Holding Co., Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, and warehousing services. S.F. Holding operates worldwide.

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S.F. Holding (002352 CH)

Monthly Express Tracker | ASPs Down Again | Volume Growth Moderates | J&T Express IPO | (June 2023)

In May, pricing weakened and volume growth moderated; we expect these two trends to hurt Q2 results. We also believe the planned J&T Global Express...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express IPO: The Bear Case

The key elements of the bear case rest on organic revenue decline in SEA/China, deteriorating contract liabilities, SEA margin pressure, high cash...

Arun George

Catching Up With CJ Logistics (000120 KS): With Shares Beaten Down, Management Forced to Refocus

In this insight we check on CJ Logistics' recent financial performance. Management has de-emphasized the Global segment and put more resources into...

Tracking Traffic

J&T Global Express IPO: The Bull Case

The key elements of the bull case rest on large addressable markets, market share gains, robust reported revenue growth and narrowing losses which...

Arun George

China TMT Update - 700.HK/NTES/BGNE/2352.SZ: Tencent's In-Development Project "Paradise" Start Test.

700.HK/NetEase: Tencent's in-development project codenamed "Paradise" started beta test；BGNE: AbbVie sued BeiGene over patent infringement on...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

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