Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

Macronix International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>De facto monopolist in SLC NAND and eMMC following Samsung's deliberate exit; any credible new entrant faces a minimum 3-year AEC-Q100/ASIL-D qualification runway — moat is time, not cost.</li>
<li>Consensus PT of NT$191 was set before Q1's 119% EPS beat and April's all-time record NT$5.91bn monthly revenue; the upgrade cycle has barely started.</li>
<li>BUY, NT$230 PT (8.5x FY2026E BVPS NT$27 on P/B–ROE); most asymmetric risk/reward in our Taiwan tech universe at 3.4:1 upside-to-downside.</li>
</ul>


De facto monopolist in SLC NAND and eMMC following Samsung's deliberate exit; any credible new entrant faces a minimum 3-year AEC-Q100/ASIL-D qualification runway — moat is time, not cost.
Consensus PT of NT$191 was set before Q1's 119% EPS beat and April's all-time record NT$5.91bn monthly revenue; the upgrade cycle has barely started.
BUY, NT$230 PT (8.5x FY2026E BVPS NT$27 on P/B–ROE); most asymmetric risk/reward in our Taiwan tech universe at 3.4:1 upside-to-downside.


MACRONIX INTERNATIONAL (2337 TW): Initiate with a BUY (TP NT$230)

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

<ul>
<li>
Building on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/macronix-shows-nor-flash-cycle-turning-as-ai-infrastructure-reshapes-memory-demand" target="_blank" rel="noopener">our Jan 28 analysis</a> of the NOR flash cycle trough, Macronix January revenue of NT$3.2bn, +35%YoY (+40% for NOR) and recent industry developments, signal strength amid tightening supply.</li>
<li>
AI's memory narrative often spotlights HBM and advanced NAND, but NOR memory is the quiet enabler in the datacenter's backbone—storing boot code, servers firmware, BMCs, and configuration data for networking.</li>
<li>
 Macronix International (2337 TT) and Winbond Electronics (2344 TT) together control the majority of global NOR supply. We've increased our model forecasts for Macrionix, see further upside for the stock.</li>
</ul>



Building on our Jan 28 analysis of the NOR flash cycle trough, Macronix January revenue of NT$3.2bn, +35%YoY (+40% for NOR) and recent industry developments, signal strength amid tightening supply.

AI's memory narrative often spotlights HBM and advanced NAND, but NOR memory is the quiet enabler in the datacenter's backbone—storing boot code, servers firmware, BMCs, and configuration data for networking.

 Macronix International (2337 TT) and Winbond Electronics (2344 TT) together control the majority of global NOR supply. We've increased our model forecasts for Macrionix, see further upside for the stock.


Macronix (2337 TT): NOR Flash Shortage Intensifies as AI Racks Drive New Type of Demand

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macronix-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3247:1" rel="noopener">Macronix International (2337 TT)</a>'s 11pt gross margin recovery shows the NOR Flash downcycle that began in 2022 has rebounded. Good news for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/winbond-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9177:1" rel="noopener">Winbond Electronics (2344 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gigadevice-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46238:1" rel="noopener">GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>AI infrastructure demand is reshaping specialty memory, with server and networking driving NOR growth while NAND supply tightens as fabs prioritize capacity</li>
<li>Product mix transformation and capex discipline have turned free cash flow positive, signaling improved health across the specialty memory sector. After a long downturn, profitability has rebounded significantly.</li>
</ul>



Macronix International (2337 TT)'s 11pt gross margin recovery shows the NOR Flash downcycle that began in 2022 has rebounded. Good news for Winbond Electronics (2344 TT), GigaDevice Semiconductor (3986 HK).
AI infrastructure demand is reshaping specialty memory, with server and networking driving NOR growth while NAND supply tightens as fabs prioritize capacity
Product mix transformation and capex discipline have turned free cash flow positive, signaling improved health across the specialty memory sector. After a long downturn, profitability has rebounded significantly.


Macronix Shows NOR Flash Cycle Turning as AI Infrastructure Reshapes Memory Demand

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Memory stocks fell with an average of 6% last week, led by SK Hynix and Samsung. Investors questioned whether hyperscalers and AI model developers can sustain AI infrastructure capex.     </li>
<li>Macro noise (PCE, OpenAI IPO delay) caused investors to realize profit and reduce AI exposure.</li>
<li>Long Macronix (2337 TW) / Short Winbond (2344 TW). Specialty memory monopoly vs. over-leveraged peer. Entry now; Q2 results catalyst 28–30 July 2026.</li>
</ul>


Memory stocks fell with an average of 6% last week, led by SK Hynix and Samsung. Investors questioned whether hyperscalers and AI model developers can sustain AI infrastructure capex.     
Macro noise (PCE, OpenAI IPO delay) caused investors to realize profit and reduce AI exposure.
Long Macronix (2337 TW) / Short Winbond (2344 TW). Specialty memory monopoly vs. over-leveraged peer. Entry now; Q2 results catalyst 28–30 July 2026.


SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY CYCLE MONITOR — Issue #1 | Week of 22–26 June 2026

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>AI has transformed memory from a cyclical commodity industry into strategic infrastructure, supported by constrained wafer capacity, disciplined supply growth and increasingly durable earnings.</li>
<li>There are fears that the cycle has peaked. However, the insatiable AI demand, limited new capacity, and long-term supply agreements suggest that the industry just passed the half-time.</li>
<li>We are overwhelmingly positive across our coverage universe, with six BUY ratings, one HOLD and one SELL, reflecting our expectation of further upside over the next 12 months.</li>
</ul>


AI has transformed memory from a cyclical commodity industry into strategic infrastructure, supported by constrained wafer capacity, disciplined supply growth and increasingly durable earnings.
There are fears that the cycle has peaked. However, the insatiable AI demand, limited new capacity, and long-term supply agreements suggest that the industry just passed the half-time.
We are overwhelmingly positive across our coverage universe, with six BUY ratings, one HOLD and one SELL, reflecting our expectation of further upside over the next 12 months.


Semiconductor Memory Handbook: Investing Beyond the Cycle (OUTPERFORM)

Taiwan

Macronix International Co., Ltd. designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) as well as memory products.  The Company's products include nonvolatile memory integrated circuits, mask ROM (Read Only Memory), EPROM (Erasable Programmable ROM), and flash memory products.  Macronix also produces logic ICs for audio, clock generators, and graphic application devices.

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Macronix International (2337 TT)

MACRONIX INTERNATIONAL (2337 TW): Initiate with a BUY (TP NT$230)

De facto monopolist in SLC NAND and eMMC with strong growth potential, upgrade cycle just beginning, BUY with NT$230 PT for 3.4:1 upside-to...

Mo Aziz

Macronix (2337 TT): NOR Flash Shortage Intensifies as AI Racks Drive New Type of Demand

Macronix's strong revenue growth signals NOR flash cycle turning amid tightening supply, highlighting its importance in datacenter infrastructure.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Macronix Shows NOR Flash Cycle Turning as AI Infrastructure Reshapes Memory Demand

Macronix's gross margin recovery signals NOR Flash downcycle rebound, benefiting Winbond Electronics and GigaDevice Semiconductor. AI...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY CYCLE MONITOR — Issue #1 | Week of 22–26 June 2026

Memory stocks dropped 6% last week as investors worry about AI infrastructure capex sustainability. Profit-taking and macro noise led to reduced...

Mo Aziz

Semiconductor Memory Handbook: Investing Beyond the Cycle (OUTPERFORM)

AI has revolutionized the memory industry, shifting it from a cyclical commodity to strategic infrastructure with sustainable earnings and growth...

Mo Aziz

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52-week Range

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MACRONIX INTERNATIONAL (2337 TW): Initiate with a BUY (TP NT$230)

​De facto monopolist in SLC NAND and eMMC with strong growth potential, upgrade cycle just beginning, BUY with NT$230 PT for 3.4:1 upside-to...

Mo Aziz

Macronix (2337 TT): NOR Flash Shortage Intensifies as AI Racks Drive New Type of Demand

​Macronix's strong revenue growth signals NOR flash cycle turning amid tightening supply, highlighting its importance in datacenter infrastructure.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Macronix Shows NOR Flash Cycle Turning as AI Infrastructure Reshapes Memory Demand

​Macronix's gross margin recovery signals NOR Flash downcycle rebound, benefiting Winbond Electronics and GigaDevice Semiconductor. AI...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

SEMICONDUCTOR MEMORY CYCLE MONITOR — Issue #1 | Week of 22–26 June 2026

​Memory stocks dropped 6% last week as investors worry about AI infrastructure capex sustainability. Profit-taking and macro noise led to reduced...

Mo Aziz

Semiconductor Memory Handbook: Investing Beyond the Cycle (OUTPERFORM)

​AI has revolutionized the memory industry, shifting it from a cyclical commodity to strategic infrastructure with sustainable earnings and growth...

Mo Aziz

De facto monopolist in SLC NAND and eMMC with strong growth potential, upgrade cycle just beginning, BUY with NT$230 PT for 3.4:1 upside-to...

Macronix's strong revenue growth signals NOR flash cycle turning amid tightening supply, highlighting its importance in datacenter infrastructure.

Macronix's gross margin recovery signals NOR Flash downcycle rebound, benefiting Winbond Electronics and GigaDevice Semiconductor. AI...

Memory stocks dropped 6% last week as investors worry about AI infrastructure capex sustainability. Profit-taking and macro noise led to reduced...

AI has revolutionized the memory industry, shifting it from a cyclical commodity to strategic infrastructure with sustainable earnings and growth...