Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We do not view the INR700bn recapitalization of government banks as a panacea. We do not view the US$24.8bn Reserve Bank of India (RBI) payment to the government as a way to solve the banking crisis.  The recent 35bps rate cut is not enough to provide companies with sufficient relief to significantly improve NPLs. The reality is that the situation is deteriorating, and much of this is not readily visible in headline figures.

We do not view the INR700bn recapitalization of government banks as a panacea. We do not view the US$24.8bn Reserve Bank of India (RBI) payment to the government as a way to solve the banking crisis.  The recent 35bps rate cut is not enough to provide companies with sufficient relief to significantly improve NPLs. The reality is that the situation is deteriorating, and much of this is not readily visible in headline figures.

Asia focused research insights & advisory, Asia Advisors

Vinay Patel

Asia focused research insights & advisory

Asia Advisors

Asia Advisors is an independent financial advisory and research firm working closely with corporates and institutions to provide consulting solutions & research insights. We provide advisory services including capital solutions, business strategy and investment insights.
Firm is headed by Vinay Patel who has close to two decades of experience in research and business development at large, international investment banks such as HSBC and ICICI Securities. Led research efforts in areas of Macroeconomics, Asset Allocation & Investment Strategy for close to a decade in global & domestic research teams. As a business head in Singapore, advised top global investment management firms & Portfolio managers in Asia for India related investments.
Vinay was recently joined by Swapnil Manish, an investment banker and ex-ecommerce entrepreneur with more than 12 years of experience. Swapnil was the TMT banker at BNP Paribas and was part of several large M&A and ECM transactions (Bharti-Zain, Bharti Infratel IPO, Schneider-Zicom among several others). He's also had a stint as an ecommerce entrepreneur having launched & led Mumbai's first online grocery player.

Derating of the financial sector and NBFCs, in particular, has thrown up some good opportunities for investors in this space as the market is painting all the NBFCs with the same brush!Not all NBFCs are stressed and the stronger ones are actually looking to buy assets from highly leveraged players. We prefer NBFCs with a strong brand and good retail deposit franchises.RBI keeps its focus on inflation even as other nations with similar mandates (Indonesia, Philippines) have used rates to stabilise the currency. This leaves the burden of CAD adjustment entirely on the INR. We, therefore, believe that an NRI bond issue now has a higher probability than before.Government seeks to alleviate farm distress by asking insurance companies to speed up claim processing and has levied a penalty of 12% for unpaid claims.

Derating of the financial sector and NBFCs, in particular, has thrown up some good opportunities for investors in this space as the market is painting all the NBFCs with the same brush!Not all NBFCs are stressed and the stronger ones are actually looking to buy assets from highly leveraged players. We prefer NBFCs with a strong brand and good retail deposit franchises.RBI keeps its focus on inflation even as other nations with similar mandates (Indonesia, Philippines) have used rates to stabilise the currency. This leaves the burden of CAD adjustment entirely on the INR. We, therefore, believe that an NRI bond issue now has a higher probability than before.Government seeks to alleviate farm distress by asking insurance companies to speed up claim processing and has levied a penalty of 12% for unpaid claims. 

India Selected Topics: Opportunity in NBFCs, RBI Mandate and Election Spending Pick Up

Severe liquidity crunch affects NBFC lending with several NBFCs, including the housing finance companies reporting a slowdown in lending. NBFCs had become an important part of the credit market extending credit to pockets not explored by banks like the SMEs, MSME and self-employed. With a 44% share of the credit market (up from 21% in 2014), NBFCs are an important component of the financial system today and a slowdown in NBFCS will impact sectors like housing, autos and other discretionary consumption products. While the NBFCs are looking to some help from the RBI (direct liquidity support) as it did provide in 2013 but given the rapid growth of NBFC credit (25%+ in FY18), the RBI may just be welcoming this moderation

Severe liquidity crunch affects NBFC lending with several NBFCs, including the housing finance companies reporting a slowdown in lending. NBFCs had become an important part of the credit market extending credit to pockets not explored by banks like the SMEs, MSME and self-employed. With a 44% share of the credit market (up from 21% in 2014), NBFCs are an important component of the financial system today and a slowdown in NBFCS will impact sectors like housing, autos and other discretionary consumption products. While the NBFCs are looking to some help from the RBI (direct liquidity support) as it did provide in 2013 but given the rapid growth of NBFC credit (25%+ in FY18), the RBI may just be welcoming this moderation 

Gold Rush for NBFCs May End as Worst Liquidity Crisis in a Decade Bites; Banks Review Exposure Norms

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Sree Capital

Sreemant Dudhoria

Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Fundamental Research on Listed Indian Companies

Sree Capital

Sree Capital is a platform to share fundamental research on listed Indian companies. We do this research for our own investment

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight we discuss about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a> 's remarkable 57% CAGR EPS from FY2021 to FY2026.</li>
<li>We further discuss what has led to this superb performance and break this into flawless execution, strong management and capital allocation.</li>
<li>We finally discuss about FY27 outlook &amp; beyond and finally our view on valuation.</li>
</ul>


In this insight we discuss about Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) 's remarkable 57% CAGR EPS from FY2021 to FY2026.
We further discuss what has led to this superb performance and break this into flawless execution, strong management and capital allocation.
We finally discuss about FY27 outlook &amp; beyond and finally our view on valuation.


Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) - Flawless Execution, Strong Management Focus & Superb Outlook

India’s banks are now recording domestic loan growth at 5.9% YoY in the latest available figures, for November 2017. In CEIC's India Monetary Survey, there is no figure lower than this since the beginning of the series in March 2000. The trajectory of domestic credit growth to exceptionally low levels is the hallmark sign of a worsening economy. Bad loans are in no way finished rising, despite their on-going focus. Bad loans will not suddenly cease to materialize in this environment, even where…

India’s banks are now recording domestic loan growth at 5.9% YoY in the latest available figures, for November 2017. In CEIC's India Monetary Survey, there is no figure lower than this since the beginning of the series in March 2000. The trajectory of domestic credit growth to exceptionally low levels is the hallmark sign of a worsening economy. Bad loans are in no way finished rising, despite their on-going focus. Bad loans will not suddenly cease to materialize in this environment, even where…

India

Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services is an Indian non-banking financial company primarily focused on rural and semi-urban markets. It provides vehicle loans for cars, tractors, and commercial vehicles, as well as SME financing, housing finance, personal loans, and offers insurance broking and mutual fund distribution services. The company is headquartered in Mumbai, India, and was founded in 1991.

Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services (MMFS IN)

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Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services (MMFS IN)

India Banks – Deterioration

We do not view the INR700bn recapitalization of government banks as a panacea. We do not view the US$24.8bn Reserve Bank of India (RBI) payment to...

Daniel Tabbush

India Selected Topics: Opportunity in NBFCs, RBI Mandate and Election Spending Pick Up

Derating of the financial sector and NBFCs, in particular, has thrown up some good opportunities for investors in this space as the market is...

Asia Advisors

Gold Rush for NBFCs May End as Worst Liquidity Crisis in a Decade Bites; Banks Review Exposure Norms

Severe liquidity crunch affects NBFC lending with several NBFCs, including the housing finance companies reporting a slowdown in lending. NBFCs had...

Asia Advisors

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) - Flawless Execution, Strong Management Focus & Superb Outlook

Insight on Mahindra & Mahindra's impressive 57% CAGR EPS growth, attributing success to flawless execution, strong management, and capital...

Sreemant Dudhoria

India: Loan Growth Lowest on Record

India’s banks are now recording domestic loan growth at 5.9% YoY in the latest available figures, for November 2017. In CEIC's India Monetary...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

India Banks – Deterioration

We do not view the INR700bn recapitalization of government banks as a panacea. We do not view the US$24.8bn Reserve Bank of India (RBI) payment to...

Daniel Tabbush

India Selected Topics: Opportunity in NBFCs, RBI Mandate and Election Spending Pick Up

Derating of the financial sector and NBFCs, in particular, has thrown up some good opportunities for investors in this space as the market is...

Asia Advisors

Gold Rush for NBFCs May End as Worst Liquidity Crisis in a Decade Bites; Banks Review Exposure Norms

Severe liquidity crunch affects NBFC lending with several NBFCs, including the housing finance companies reporting a slowdown in lending. NBFCs had...

Asia Advisors

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) - Flawless Execution, Strong Management Focus & Superb Outlook

​Insight on Mahindra & Mahindra's impressive 57% CAGR EPS growth, attributing success to flawless execution, strong management, and capital...

Sreemant Dudhoria

India: Loan Growth Lowest on Record

India’s banks are now recording domestic loan growth at 5.9% YoY in the latest available figures, for November 2017. In CEIC's India Monetary...

Daniel Tabbush

Insight on Mahindra & Mahindra's impressive 57% CAGR EPS growth, attributing success to flawless execution, strong management, and capital...