Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns.
For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on Demand Environment &amp; Business performance; Margins &amp; Inventory; Supply Chain, price increases and discounting; Competition and market share; New launches; Electric vehicles (EVs); Outlook and Strategy
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Companies covered included <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> (Primarily Standalone India Business) / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a> /  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a>


The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns.
For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on Demand Environment &amp; Business performance; Margins &amp; Inventory; Supply Chain, price increases and discounting; Competition and market share; New launches; Electric vehicles (EVs); Outlook and Strategy

Companies covered included Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) / Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) (Primarily Standalone India Business) / Ashok Leyland (AL IN) /  Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India 4Ws - MM, TTMT, AL, MSIL

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

EM Autos are the 10th largest industry group weight among active EM managers, with average weights of 1.55%.  The more interesting metric however, is the extent to which Autos have become one of the largest industry level underweights across global EM.  The increased underweight has almost exclusively been driven by two stocks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK</a>, with both seeing benchmark weights rise on the back of strong price increases.Such outright volatility has created a challenge for active managers who are benchmarked to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.   Namely, how do you position yourself in a prominent index component that rises 900% in the space of 12 months?  The temptation might be to add <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a> to a portfolio to dampen some of that benchmark risk, and indeed we have seen that happening among managers with low active shares.However, so far, high active managers have remained on the sidelines, sticking instead with more established autos stocks of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kia-motors-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:156:1" rel="noopener">Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a>.  Therefore, there is very little peer group risk in avoiding either <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a> or <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> .  In fact, if a high active manager decides to invest in either stock, it will represent an out-of-consensus long compared to the majority of your active peers.

EM Autos are the 10th largest industry group weight among active EM managers, with average weights of 1.55%.  The more interesting metric however, is the extent to which Autos have become one of the largest industry level underweights across global EM.  The increased underweight has almost exclusively been driven by two stocks, NIO Inc (NIO US) and BYD (1211 HK, with both seeing benchmark weights rise on the back of strong price increases.Such outright volatility has created a challenge for active managers who are benchmarked to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index.   Namely, how do you position yourself in a prominent index component that rises 900% in the space of 12 months?  The temptation might be to add NIO Inc (NIO US) to a portfolio to dampen some of that benchmark risk, and indeed we have seen that happening among managers with low active shares.However, so far, high active managers have remained on the sidelines, sticking instead with more established autos stocks of Kia Motors Corp (000270 KS) , Geely Auto (175 HK) and Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN).  Therefore, there is very little peer group risk in avoiding either NIO Inc (NIO US) or BYD (1211 HK) .  In fact, if a high active manager decides to invest in either stock, it will represent an out-of-consensus long compared to the majority of your active peers.

EM Autos Underweight:  Ignore Benchmark Risk and Focus on Peers

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) / Equity Capital Markets

Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) (7535956Z IN)

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bharat-coking-coal-limited-bccl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45272:1" rel="noopener">Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) (7535956Z IN)</a> raised about US$119m in its India IPO in Jan 2026. The lockup on its promoter, Coal India is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>BCCL is a Coal India subsidiary engaged in mining of coking coal, producing grades of coking coal, non-coking coal, and washed coal, primarily for use in steel and power sectors.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
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Bharat Coking Coal Limited (BCCL) (7535956Z IN) raised about US$119m in its India IPO in Jan 2026. The lockup on its promoter, Coal India is set to expire soon.
BCCL is a Coal India subsidiary engaged in mining of coking coal, producing grades of coking coal, non-coking coal, and washed coal, primarily for use in steel and power sectors.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Aequitas: Bharat Coking Coal Ltd IPO Lockup - US$1.3bn Lockup Release; Near-Term Selldown Unlikely

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>GNA Axles, an auto-component maker focused on axle shafts, closed FY26 with INR 1,478.42 crore revenue and INR 116.95 crore PAT, and approved INR 25 crore for GNA Mobility.</li>
<li>Profitability remained resilient despite weakness in exports. The US-India tariff truce in February 2026 could support export recovery, especially as the US remains a key growth market.</li>
<li>Q4 margins weakened sharply, with a 454 bps sequential contraction. With a large FY27 capex plan ahead, the next two quarters will be critical for execution and margin recovery.</li>
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GNA Axles, an auto-component maker focused on axle shafts, closed FY26 with INR 1,478.42 crore revenue and INR 116.95 crore PAT, and approved INR 25 crore for GNA Mobility.
Profitability remained resilient despite weakness in exports. The US-India tariff truce in February 2026 could support export recovery, especially as the US remains a key growth market.
Q4 margins weakened sharply, with a 454 bps sequential contraction. With a large FY27 capex plan ahead, the next two quarters will be critical for execution and margin recovery.


GNA Axles Ltd: A Forging Specialist With Global Growth Potential

Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

The year 2020 was a wild swing for the capital markets; it was off in a flash but still won't be forgotten by many. It was a year marked by unpredictability, right from Covid-19 to the crashing of indices. It was a challenge to many, but still the year has uncovered several new, differentiated potholes for many companies on corporate governance, accounting engineering. We have provided critical views on few of the companies on these two aspects. 
Going forward we will continue to provide critical views on the companies especially in our core area of corporate governance and forensic research. Beginning 2021, we will be covering the same through our product 'AGE Analysis' (Accounting. Governance. Earnings). We also look to enhance our reach in macro coverage, along with event driven insights.

The year 2020 was a wild swing for the capital markets; it was off in a flash but still won't be forgotten by many. It was a year marked by unpredictability, right from Covid-19 to the crashing of indices. It was a challenge to many, but still the year has uncovered several new, differentiated potholes for many companies on corporate governance, accounting engineering. We have provided critical views on few of the companies on these two aspects. 
Going forward we will continue to provide critical views on the companies especially in our core area of corporate governance and forensic research. Beginning 2021, we will be covering the same through our product 'AGE Analysis' (Accounting. Governance. Earnings). We also look to enhance our reach in macro coverage, along with event driven insights.

India

Mahindra & Mahindra is a prominent Indian multinational manufacturing corporation. It is a leading global manufacturer of tractors and a major producer of SUVs, commercial vehicles, and two-wheelers. Headquartered in Mumbai, India, the company was founded on October 2, 1945.

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Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN)

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India 4Ws - MM, TTMT, AL, MSIL

For the narrative, we will be covering commentary from Companies covered included Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) / Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) / Ashok...

Pranav Bhavsar

EM Autos Underweight: Ignore Benchmark Risk and Focus on Peers

EM Autos have become one of the largest industry level underweights across global EM. The increased underweight has almost exclusively been driven...

Steven Holden

Aequitas: Bharat Coking Coal Ltd IPO Lockup - US$1.3bn Lockup Release; Near-Term Selldown Unlikely

Bharat Coking Coal Ltd (BCCL) raised about US$119m in its India IPO in Jan 2026. The lockup on its promoter, Coal India is set to expire soon.

Akshat Shah

GNA Axles Ltd: A Forging Specialist With Global Growth Potential

GNA Axles closes FY26 with strong revenue and PAT, despite export weakness. Q4 margins weaken, FY27 capex plan critical for margin recovery. US...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Review for the Year 2020

We review our entire cloud of insights covered in 2020, and give a snapshot of how did they pay out in the market, including future prospects.

Nitin Mangal

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The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India 4Ws - MM, TTMT, AL, MSIL

For the narrative, we will be covering commentary from Companies covered included Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) / Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) / Ashok...

Pranav Bhavsar

EM Autos Underweight: Ignore Benchmark Risk and Focus on Peers

EM Autos have become one of the largest industry level underweights across global EM. The increased underweight has almost exclusively been driven...

Steven Holden

Aequitas: Bharat Coking Coal Ltd IPO Lockup - US$1.3bn Lockup Release; Near-Term Selldown Unlikely

Bharat Coking Coal Ltd (BCCL) raised about US$119m in its India IPO in Jan 2026. The lockup on its promoter, Coal India is set to expire soon.

Akshat Shah

GNA Axles Ltd: A Forging Specialist With Global Growth Potential

​GNA Axles closes FY26 with strong revenue and PAT, despite export weakness. Q4 margins weaken, FY27 capex plan critical for margin recovery. US...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Review for the Year 2020

We review our entire cloud of insights covered in 2020, and give a snapshot of how did they pay out in the market, including future prospects.

Nitin Mangal

GNA Axles closes FY26 with strong revenue and PAT, despite export weakness. Q4 margins weaken, FY27 capex plan critical for margin recovery. US...