Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX</li>
<li>Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.</li>
<li>Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes are still testing (and holding above) critical supports. This includes MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX
Our overall outlook remains neutral, and we continue to see many attractive buying opportunities, especially out of Japan, India, and a new one -- Brazil.
Buy ideas focus on the Consumer Discretionary and Financials Sectors, with the vast majority of stock recommendations from Japan, India, and Brazil


Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We challenge <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a> 's narrative of strong demand and booking pipeline (140k+ open bookings, excl Scorpio N as of Q1 FY23) </li>
<li>There is a possibility of a monthly booking rate of 10.3k for XUV700 and 5K per month for Thar being overstated. </li>
<li>With increasing competition (MSIL + Toyota), cancellations will increase leading to even lower waiting periods and a reduced booking pipeline. </li>
</ul>


We challenge Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) 's narrative of strong demand and booking pipeline (140k+ open bookings, excl Scorpio N as of Q1 FY23) 
There is a possibility of a monthly booking rate of 10.3k for XUV700 and 5K per month for Thar being overstated. 
With increasing competition (MSIL + Toyota), cancellations will increase leading to even lower waiting periods and a reduced booking pipeline. 


Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) | The Bookings Fallacy

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The wholesale volumes in Aug’22 picked up in line with our expectations as the OEMs ramped up supply to fill in the inventories ahead of the festive season.</li><li>The easing chip shortage also aided in the broad-based growth in auto supply as against previous quarters.</li><li>Based on the Aug’22 domestic wholesale volume numbers, the CV segment supply growth stood ahead followed by the PV and 2W segments.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The wholesale volumes in Aug’22 picked up in line with our expectations as the OEMs ramped up supply to fill in the inventories ahead of the festive season.The easing chip shortage also aided in the broad-based growth in auto supply as against previous quarters.Based on the Aug’22 domestic wholesale volume numbers, the CV segment supply growth stood ahead followed by the PV and 2W segments.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul>
<li>We continue to see global equities as being in pullback mode, with the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) already testing important support in the $86-87 range, highlighted last week.</li>
<li>A bounce here would be ideal for the bullish case, but we could easily see a test of the YTD lows near $81.50 if $86 fails to hold.</li>
<li>Japan's TOPIX/Nikkei225/TOPIX Small remain bullish, as does India's SENSEX -- add exposure. Seeing some failed breakouts in Europe, notably the EURO STOXX 50 and STOXX Europe 600; a concerning development.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see global equities as being in pullback mode, with the MSCI ACWI index (ACWI-US) already testing important support in the $86-87 range, highlighted last week.
A bounce here would be ideal for the bullish case, but we could easily see a test of the YTD lows near $81.50 if $86 fails to hold.
Japan's TOPIX/Nikkei225/TOPIX Small remain bullish, as does India's SENSEX -- add exposure. Seeing some failed breakouts in Europe, notably the EURO STOXX 50 and STOXX Europe 600; a concerning development.


Pullback Continues; Japan & India Remain Attractive

Escorts Kubota Limited / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Based on current consensus estimates, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/escorts-kubota-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6773:1" rel="noopener">Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN)</a> is expected to deliver implied domestic volume growth of 6.5% for FY23 and 10% for FY24.</li>
<li>Our earlier checks have indicated a challenging environment for gaining market share or growing ahead of the Industry for ESCORTS. </li>
<li>Even if we assume market share gains and volume recovery leading to above industry growth, at CMP it is already priced in. </li>
</ul>


Based on current consensus estimates, Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN) is expected to deliver implied domestic volume growth of 6.5% for FY23 and 10% for FY24.
Our earlier checks have indicated a challenging environment for gaining market share or growing ahead of the Industry for ESCORTS. 
Even if we assume market share gains and volume recovery leading to above industry growth, at CMP it is already priced in. 


Escorts Kubota Limited (ESCORTS IN) | Market Share Gains Priced In

India

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. manufactures automobiles, farm equipment and automotive components. The Company's automobile products include light, medium and heavy commercial vehicles, jeep type vehicles and passenger cars. Mahindra & Mahindra also manufactures agricultural tractors, agricultural implements, internal combustion engines, industrial petrol engines, spare parts and machine tools.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN)

Europe, Japan, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising DXY, Global Sovereign Yields a Major Headwind

Europe $STOXX 50, Japan $TOPIX $Nikkei 225, $ACWI Testing Critical Supports; Rising $DXY, Global Sovereign Yields Remain Major Headwinds for global...

Vermilion Research