New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We upgrade Mainfreight (MFT) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL, following a softer-than-expected 1H26 result, but one where management provided a more positive outlook, suggesting the company is now through an earnings-cycle inflection point.</li><li>This underlying business improvement is likely to continue into 2H26, driven predominantly by accelerating Australasian activity reflecting new business wins and cyclical green shoots.</li><li>MFT's ability to accelerate profit growth out of a down cycle is due to consistent customer acquisition—often at sub-optimal rates—that are subsequently reset as conditions improve.</li></ul>

We upgrade Mainfreight (MFT) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL, following a softer-than-expected 1H26 result, but one where management provided a more positive outlook, suggesting the company is now through an earnings-cycle inflection point.This underlying business improvement is likely to continue into 2H26, driven predominantly by accelerating Australasian activity reflecting new business wins and cyclical green shoots.MFT's ability to accelerate profit growth out of a down cycle is due to consistent customer acquisition—often at sub-optimal rates—that are subsequently reset as conditions improve.

Mainfreight 1H26—Accelerating Through the Camber

<ul><li>Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a weaker 1H26 result on 12 November 2025.</li><li>We expect a material decline in profits, with margin pressure a key feature and further downgrade risk to FY26 earnings expectations.</li><li>Over the past ~2.5 years, its consensus FY26 PBT has already fallen -41%.</li></ul>

Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a weaker 1H26 result on 12 November 2025.We expect a material decline in profits, with margin pressure a key feature and further downgrade risk to FY26 earnings expectations.Over the past ~2.5 years, its consensus FY26 PBT has already fallen -41%.

<ul><li>Recent global freight industry data points and peer commentary suggest more downside than upside risk to Mainfreight's (MFT) near-term outlook.</li><li>After a challenging start to FY26 (PBT was down -24% in the first 17 weeks), MFT is in catch-up mode, though its prior-year comparatives become more challenging for the remainder of the year.</li><li>Despite this backdrop, MFT's one-year forward PE has firmed to ~24x in recent weeks, while its closest global peers have de-rated.</li></ul>

Recent global freight industry data points and peer commentary suggest more downside than upside risk to Mainfreight's (MFT) near-term outlook.After a challenging start to FY26 (PBT was down -24% in the first 17 weeks), MFT is in catch-up mode, though its prior-year comparatives become more challenging for the remainder of the year.Despite this backdrop, MFT's one-year forward PE has firmed to ~24x in recent weeks, while its closest global peers have de-rated.

<ul><li>Mainfreight (MFT) reported a tough start to FY26 at its Annual Shareholder Meeting (ASM), with a material decline in year-to-date profitability relative to the prior year.</li><li>With revenue growth marginally positive year-to-date, the sharp drop in earnings stems from further margin pressure across all three products (Transport, Warehousing and Air &amp; Ocean).</li><li>Despite this unfavourable earnings backdrop and repeated downgrades over the past three years, MFT still offers long-term growth potential, as illustrated by further new customer wins.</li></ul>

Mainfreight (MFT) reported a tough start to FY26 at its Annual Shareholder Meeting (ASM), with a material decline in year-to-date profitability relative to the prior year.With revenue growth marginally positive year-to-date, the sharp drop in earnings stems from further margin pressure across all three products (Transport, Warehousing and Air &amp; Ocean).Despite this unfavourable earnings backdrop and repeated downgrades over the past three years, MFT still offers long-term growth potential, as illustrated by further new customer wins.

<ul><li>Mainfreight (MFT) reported a mixed FY25 result, with strong momentum in Australia offset by profit declines in New Zealand, the Americas, and Asia.</li><li>Underlying PBT fell marginally in FY25, but the second half showed sequential improvement, indicating potential earnings growth in FY26.</li><li>The target price for MFT has been lifted to NZ$77 from NZ$71, reflecting a strong re-rating of key peers over the past four weeks.</li></ul>

Mainfreight (MFT) reported a mixed FY25 result, with strong momentum in Australia offset by profit declines in New Zealand, the Americas, and Asia.Underlying PBT fell marginally in FY25, but the second half showed sequential improvement, indicating potential earnings growth in FY26.The target price for MFT has been lifted to NZ$77 from NZ$71, reflecting a strong re-rating of key peers over the past four weeks.

Mainfreight FY25 Result—Australia Takes the Lead

New Zealand

Mainfreight Limited provides and supplies freight, warehousing and logistics services throughout New Zealand and Australia.  The Company provides freight forwarding services by road, rail, sea and air along with providing international freight forwarding services, customs clearance services and specialized handling of hazardous substances.

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Mainfreight Ltd (MFT NZ)

Mainfreight 1H26—Accelerating Through the Camber

This underlying business improvement is likely to continue into 2H26, driven predominantly by accelerating Australasian activity reflecting new...

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight 1H26 Preview—A Margin Call

We expect a material decline in profits, with margin pressure a key feature and further downgrade risk to FY26 earnings expectations.

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight Freighting Re-Rating

Recent global freight industry data points and peer commentary suggest more downside than upside risk to Mainfreight's (MFT) near-term outlook.

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight - Margin Blues

Mainfreight (MFT) reported a tough start to FY26 at its Annual Shareholder Meeting (ASM), with a material decline in year-to-date profitability...

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight FY25 Result—Australia Takes the Lead

Mainfreight (MFT) reported a mixed FY25 result, with strong momentum in Australia offset by profit declines in New Zealand, the Americas, and Asia.

Forsyth Barr

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