New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Mainfreight (MFT) released a trading update for the first 17 weeks of 2H23 highlighting a sequential slowdown in growth, as it consolidates the substantial profit uplift over the past two years</li><li>PBT fell -1% against the prior year compared to a +66% lift in 1H23</li><li>Profit growth in all three products (Transport, Warehousing and Air &amp; Ocean) slowed, as volumes, rates and costs were impacted by a normalising trading environment and inflationary pressures</li></ul>

Mainfreight (MFT) released a trading update for the first 17 weeks of 2H23 highlighting a sequential slowdown in growth, as it consolidates the substantial profit uplift over the past two yearsPBT fell -1% against the prior year compared to a +66% lift in 1H23Profit growth in all three products (Transport, Warehousing and Air &amp; Ocean) slowed, as volumes, rates and costs were impacted by a normalising trading environment and inflationary pressures

<ul><li>MFT is trading cum-downgrade: MFT share price suggests that the market is expecting an earnings downgrade at the upcoming trading update</li><li>A&amp;O earnings remains the key short term issue for investors</li><li>New customer wins help mitigate cyclical concerns</li></ul>

MFT is trading cum-downgrade: MFT share price suggests that the market is expecting an earnings downgrade at the upcoming trading updateA&amp;O earnings remains the key short term issue for investorsNew customer wins help mitigate cyclical concerns

Mainfreight: Blue Hands in Bag, Ready to Pull It Out, Again

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Abnormal gains in international freight are unwinding rapidly, particularly for seafreight, with global spot indices now down ~80% from their peaks but still above pre-pandemic levels</li><li>Air cargo's rates compression has been slower, mirroring the slow recovery in air seat capacity</li><li>In this normalising, yet far from normal environment, Freightways (FRE; OUTPERFORM) and Mainfreight (MFT; OUTPERFORM) remain our preferred exposures in the sector</li></ul>

Abnormal gains in international freight are unwinding rapidly, particularly for seafreight, with global spot indices now down ~80% from their peaks but still above pre-pandemic levelsAir cargo's rates compression has been slower, mirroring the slow recovery in air seat capacityIn this normalising, yet far from normal environment, Freightways (FRE; OUTPERFORM) and Mainfreight (MFT; OUTPERFORM) remain our preferred exposures in the sector

Transport Trends: Nothing Normal About the Normalising

<ul><li>Mainfreight’s (MFT) 68 page semi-annual employee newsletter highlights an increased focus on quality, network expansion and sustainable growth within the business</li><li>In particular we count a material increase in the use of words like “quality”, “growth”, ”LCL”, “sustainable” compared to previous newsletters</li><li>In contrast, there are no direct references to the potential impact of declining international (sea and air) freight rates.</li></ul>

Mainfreight’s (MFT) 68 page semi-annual employee newsletter highlights an increased focus on quality, network expansion and sustainable growth within the businessIn particular we count a material increase in the use of words like “quality”, “growth”, ”LCL”, “sustainable” compared to previous newslettersIn contrast, there are no direct references to the potential impact of declining international (sea and air) freight rates.

Mainfreight: December 2022 Team Newsletter Insights

<ul><li>Mainfreight's (MFT) 1H23 result had been pre-released at its investor day three weeks ago</li><li>Outlook commentary highlights a sequential slowdown in growth</li><li>We welcome the higher capex guidance, which highlights management's confidence in the outlook for its US and European Transport operations, and helps resolve what was becoming an under-geared balance sheet</li></ul>

Mainfreight's (MFT) 1H23 result had been pre-released at its investor day three weeks agoOutlook commentary highlights a sequential slowdown in growthWe welcome the higher capex guidance, which highlights management's confidence in the outlook for its US and European Transport operations, and helps resolve what was becoming an under-geared balance sheet

Mainfreight: 1H23 — Growth Capex Injection

New Zealand

Mainfreight Limited provides and supplies freight, warehousing and logistics services throughout New Zealand and Australia.  The Company provides freight forwarding services by road, rail, sea and air along with providing international freight forwarding services, customs clearance services and specialized handling of hazardous substances.

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Mainfreight Ltd (MFT NZ)

Mainfreight: Trading Update

Mainfreight (MFT) released a trading update for the first 17 weeks of 2H23 highlighting a sequential slowdown in growth, as it consolidates the...

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight: Blue Hands in Bag, Ready to Pull It Out, Again

Mainfreight (MFT) is due to issue a trading update in early February, which we expect to highlight some sequential slippage in weekly profitability...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends: Nothing Normal About the Normalising

The industry is normalising, but from different angles and at a different rates: Abnormal gains in international freight are unwinding rapidly,...

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight: 1H23 — Growth Capex Injection

Mainfreight's (MFT) 1H23 result had been pre-released at its investor day three weeks ago; new news was largely limited to (1) updated outlook...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Mainfreight: Trading Update

Mainfreight (MFT) released a trading update for the first 17 weeks of 2H23 highlighting a sequential slowdown in growth, as it consolidates the...

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight: Blue Hands in Bag, Ready to Pull It Out, Again

Mainfreight (MFT) is due to issue a trading update in early February, which we expect to highlight some sequential slippage in weekly profitability...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Trends: Nothing Normal About the Normalising

The industry is normalising, but from different angles and at a different rates: Abnormal gains in international freight are unwinding rapidly,...

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight: December 2022 Team Newsletter Insights

Mainfreight’s (MFT) 68 page semi-annual employee newsletter highlights an increased focus on quality, network expansion and sustainable growth...

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight: 1H23 — Growth Capex Injection

Mainfreight's (MFT) 1H23 result had been pre-released at its investor day three weeks ago; new news was largely limited to (1) updated outlook...

Forsyth Barr