Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>All major global OTAs declined in value today (4 Feb) due to a brief escalation between the US and Iran and fears of slowing consumer demand, triggering risk aversion.  </li>
<li>Fundamentals remain intact, with booking trends and earnings remaining healthy, signalling a macro reset rather than demand weakness.</li>
<li>Use the pullback as a trading opportunity: accumulate Booking Holdings and Trip.com on valuation-led weakness, while staying underweight Airbnb, MakeMyTrip, and Tripadvisor given their stretched valuations.</li>
</ul>


All major global OTAs declined in value today (4 Feb) due to a brief escalation between the US and Iran and fears of slowing consumer demand, triggering risk aversion.  
Fundamentals remain intact, with booking trends and earnings remaining healthy, signalling a macro reset rather than demand weakness.
Use the pullback as a trading opportunity: accumulate Booking Holdings and Trip.com on valuation-led weakness, while staying underweight Airbnb, MakeMyTrip, and Tripadvisor given their stretched valuations.


Global Online Travel Agent (OTA): Macro De-Rating Creates Selective Entry Points in Travel Platforms

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Akshat Shah

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makemytrip-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23580:1" rel="noopener">Makemytrip Ltd (MMYT US)</a> is looking to raise upto US$2.66bn via an equity combo of a 14m share selldown, which could raise around US$1.41bn and US$1.25bn five-year put-three convertible bonds.</li>
<li>The company plans to use the proceeds to buy back Class B shares from Trip.com to lower Trip.com’s voting power in MakeMyTrip to 19.99%.</li>
<li>In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>



Makemytrip Ltd (MMYT US) is looking to raise upto US$2.66bn via an equity combo of a 14m share selldown, which could raise around US$1.41bn and US$1.25bn five-year put-three convertible bonds.
The company plans to use the proceeds to buy back Class B shares from Trip.com to lower Trip.com’s voting power in MakeMyTrip to 19.99%.
In this note, we run the deal through our ECM framework and comment on deal dynamics.


MakeMyTrip Placement - Basically a Selldown by Trip.com

Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makemytrip-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23580:1" rel="noopener">Makemytrip Ltd (MMYT US)</a> dominates India's online travel agency (OTA) market as the leading player with forte in all three segments, airlines, hotels and packages and bus ticketing. </li>
<li>For forensics, there aren’t many ‘red flags’ but one should be careful of change in accounting policy in bus ticketing where revenues are recognised earlier than before. </li>
<li>Moreover, reversal in DTA in FY25 seems puzzling along with commission system for tickets sold and purchased from Trip.com</li>
</ul>



Makemytrip Ltd (MMYT US) dominates India's online travel agency (OTA) market as the leading player with forte in all three segments, airlines, hotels and packages and bus ticketing. 
For forensics, there aren’t many ‘red flags’ but one should be careful of change in accounting policy in bus ticketing where revenues are recognised earlier than before. 
Moreover, reversal in DTA in FY25 seems puzzling along with commission system for tickets sold and purchased from Trip.com


Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Small cap Emerging Market funds have outperformed their large-cap peers over the past 10 years.</li>
<li>Yet small and midcap exposure decreased to near record levels last year, in spite of managers maintaining an overweight position versus the benchmark.</li>
<li>We screen for well owned and small/midcap stocks that are showing strong momentum among managers.</li>
</ul>


Small cap Emerging Market funds have outperformed their large-cap peers over the past 10 years.
Yet small and midcap exposure decreased to near record levels last year, in spite of managers maintaining an overweight position versus the benchmark.
We screen for well owned and small/midcap stocks that are showing strong momentum among managers.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in progress.</li>
<li>There is little to do besides continue to ride the trend higher following our 11/5/24 and 11/19/24 Compass reports which both had "Buy the Pullback" in the title</li>
<li>We also continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MAs on the Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)</li>
</ul>


Our outlook remains bullish and the significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October is in progress.
There is little to do besides continue to ride the trend higher following our 11/5/24 and 11/19/24 Compass reports which both had "Buy the Pullback" in the title
We also continue to expect to see support at the 20-day MAs on the Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)


Improving Market Dynamics; Outlook Remains Bullish; MSCI EAFE, ACWI Ex-US, Europe to Join the Party?

United States

Makemytrip Ltd. offers travel services over the Internet.  The Company operates websites that allow travelers to research and plan trips and book airline tickets, hotels, packages, rail tickets, bus tickets, and rental cars. Makemytrip also offers access to travel insurance.

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Makemytrip Ltd (MMYT US)

Global Online Travel Agent (OTA): Macro De-Rating Creates Selective Entry Points in Travel Platforms

OTA weakness reflects macro and geopolitical noise, not fundamentals. Buy Booking Holdings and Trip.com on the dip; stay underweight Airbnb,...

Mo Aziz

MakeMyTrip Placement - Basically a Selldown by Trip.com

MakeMyTrip (MMYT) is looking to raise upto US$2.66bn via an equity combo including a 14m share selldown , which could raise around US$1.41bn along...

Akshat Shah

MakeMyTrip Ltd- Forensic Analysis

MMYT leads India's OTA market. Watch out for changes in accounting policy and puzzling DTA reversal in FY25. Commission system for tickets from...

Nitin Mangal

Active GEM Funds: The Small Cap Effect

Small cap Emerging Market funds have outperformed their large-cap peers over the past 10 years, Yet small and midcap exposure decreased to near...

Steven Holden

Improving Market Dynamics; Outlook Remains Bullish; MSCI EAFE, ACWI Ex-US, Europe to Join the Party?

Improving Market Dynamics; Outlook Remains Bullish $SPX $IWM $QQQ; MSCI EAFE $EFA, ACWI ex-US $ACWX, and Europe $HEDJ $FEZ to Join the Party?...

Vermilion Research

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