Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<p>The leading Chinese travel platform <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a>  has set the terms for its IPO where it plans to issue 31.6m shares at a maximum indicative price of HK$333.00 per share. At the above price, Trip.com will raise net proceeds of HK$10.4bn (approx. US$1.4bn).</p><p>Each ADS represents one ordinary share of the company, and the maximum HK offer price implies approx. US$42.8 per ADS, about 10.3% premium to Trip.com’s last close price of US$38.81 per ADS prior to setting the terms. The Hong Kong offering of 31.6m shares will constitute approx. 5.0% of the extended share capital of the company.</p><p>Trip.com plans to use about 45% of the net proceeds on funding the expansion of the company’s one-stop travel offerings and improve user experiences while it plans to use another 45% of the net proceeds on investing in technology to bolster the company’s leading market position in products and services while also improving operating efficiency.</p><p>In this insight, we examine the company’s current valuation and our view on HKEX/ADR discount/premium.</p>

The leading Chinese travel platform Trip.com (TCOM US)  has set the terms for its IPO where it plans to issue 31.6m shares at a maximum indicative price of HK$333.00 per share. At the above price, Trip.com will raise net proceeds of HK$10.4bn (approx. US$1.4bn).Each ADS represents one ordinary share of the company, and the maximum HK offer price implies approx. US$42.8 per ADS, about 10.3% premium to Trip.com’s last close price of US$38.81 per ADS prior to setting the terms. The Hong Kong offering of 31.6m shares will constitute approx. 5.0% of the extended share capital of the company.Trip.com plans to use about 45% of the net proceeds on funding the expansion of the company’s one-stop travel offerings and improve user experiences while it plans to use another 45% of the net proceeds on investing in technology to bolster the company’s leading market position in products and services while also improving operating efficiency.In this insight, we examine the company’s current valuation and our view on HKEX/ADR discount/premium.

Trip.com Secondary: Further Upside to SOTP Possible with Recovery in Travel and Hospitality Sector

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:180:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (TCOM US)</a> is a leading one-stop travel platform that currently operates through four leading travel brands which are Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com and Skyscanner. Trip.com passed its Hong Kong listing committee hearing and could raise up to $1-2 billion through a secondary listing, according to press reports. </p><p>Trip.com is braving choppy markets and waning investor enthusiasm on secondary listings/IPOs. The recent Hong Kong secondary listings of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/autohome-inc-adr" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20234:1" rel="noopener">Autohome Inc (Adr) (ATHM US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a> are trading 3% and 8% above their H-share listing price, respectively. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> is trading -13% below its H-share listing price largely due to the fallout from the fire sale at Archegos Capital.   </p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Trip.com is a play on the expected reopening and recovery of travel in 2021 due to the global rollout of vaccines. In the post-pandemic world, Trip.com aims to cement its market share gains through strengthening its supply chain (such as short-distance travel), higher conversion via content investment (such as live streaming) and rising penetration in lower-tier cities (&gt;40% of new mobile app users in 2020 were from lower-tier cities). We think that Trip.com is an attractive play on travel recovery at the last close price. </p></div>

Trip.com (TCOM US) is a leading one-stop travel platform that currently operates through four leading travel brands which are Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com and Skyscanner. Trip.com passed its Hong Kong listing committee hearing and could raise up to $1-2 billion through a secondary listing, according to press reports. Trip.com is braving choppy markets and waning investor enthusiasm on secondary listings/IPOs. The recent Hong Kong secondary listings of Autohome Inc (Adr) (ATHM US) and Bilibili Inc (BILI US) are trading 3% and 8% above their H-share listing price, respectively. Baidu (BIDU US) is trading -13% below its H-share listing price largely due to the fallout from the fire sale at Archegos Capital.   Trip.com is a play on the expected reopening and recovery of travel in 2021 due to the global rollout of vaccines. In the post-pandemic world, Trip.com aims to cement its market share gains through strengthening its supply chain (such as short-distance travel), higher conversion via content investment (such as live streaming) and rising penetration in lower-tier cities (&gt;40% of new mobile app users in 2020 were from lower-tier cities). We think that Trip.com is an attractive play on travel recovery at the last close price. 

Trip.com Secondary Listing: No Heads in the Clouds

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

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<h2>About India Channel Insight</h2>
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<div>
<p>Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  </p>
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<p>For this insight, we focus on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/easemytrip" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28897:1" rel="noopener">EaseMyTrip (0896537D IN)</a> with an objective to understand it's on-ground competitiveness; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matrimony-com" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22922:1" rel="noopener">Matrimony.com (MATRIM IN)</a> where Q3 is hinting at a change in stance compared to our earlier view and a sourcing channel of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trent-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8410:1" rel="noopener">Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) </a>to understand the growth prospects ahead. </p>
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About India Channel Insight


Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. These snippets can potentially be signals for larger themes/ideas emerging out of these interactions.  


For this insight, we focus on EaseMyTrip (0896537D IN) with an objective to understand it's on-ground competitiveness; Matrimony.com (MATRIM IN) where Q3 is hinting at a change in stance compared to our earlier view and a sourcing channel of Trent Ltd (TRENT IN) to understand the growth prospects ahead. 


India Channel Insight | Easemytrip, Matrimony.com, Trent

Forensic Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Forensic Analyst

Easy Trip Planners  / Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/easemytrip" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28897:1" rel="noopener">EaseMyTrip (0896537D IN)</a> or Easy Trip Planners Ltd is the third largest player in the Indian Online Travel Agency (OTA) space behind <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makemytrip-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23580:1" rel="noopener">Makemytrip Ltd (MMYT US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yatra-online-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25997:1" rel="noopener">Yatra Online (YTRA US); </a>in fact it has surpassed Yatra in the number of gross booking volumes (air ticketing) for F20.</p>
<p>The company has planned to come up with an IPO of INR 5.1 bn this week; the IPO does not entail fresh issue of shares but rather only comprises of offer for sale by the promoters. Similar to our previous coverages on IPO, we will not dwell on the valuation aspect, but instead put forward certain aspects with respect to governance and balance sheet checks which one must know about. </p>

EaseMyTrip (0896537D IN) or Easy Trip Planners Ltd is the third largest player in the Indian Online Travel Agency (OTA) space behind Makemytrip Ltd (MMYT US) and Yatra Online (YTRA US); in fact it has surpassed Yatra in the number of gross booking volumes (air ticketing) for F20.
The company has planned to come up with an IPO of INR 5.1 bn this week; the IPO does not entail fresh issue of shares but rather only comprises of offer for sale by the promoters. Similar to our previous coverages on IPO, we will not dwell on the valuation aspect, but instead put forward certain aspects with respect to governance and balance sheet checks which one must know about. 

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/naspers-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21085:1" rel="noopener">Naspers (NPN SJ)</a> gives you deeply discounted exposure to one of the highest quality companies listed in the Emerging Markets, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>. Should you back out the estimated fair values of all investments outside of Prosus’ 31% holding in Tencent from the current Naspers market cap, you are effectively buying exposure to Tencent for only 16.2x 2021F earnings.</p>
<p>Often overlooked, Naspers also gives exposure to a diverse range of online businesses, in differing stages of development, which are likely to structurally benefited from lasting changes to consumer behaviour in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p>
<p>Further, Management has signalled their focus on meaningfully reducing its discount to listed net asset value by implementing a $5bn share buyback program, during November 2020, which should also support the share price through volatility in the near term. </p>
<p>The key risk to the investment thesis regards the newly proposed Anti-Monopoly Compliance Guidelines for the Platform Economy released by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), a clear signal of tougher antitrust regulations going forward. Tencent should, however, be able to manage through these better than the large eCommerce players.</p>

Naspers (NPN SJ) gives you deeply discounted exposure to one of the highest quality companies listed in the Emerging Markets, Tencent Holdings (700 HK). Should you back out the estimated fair values of all investments outside of Prosus’ 31% holding in Tencent from the current Naspers market cap, you are effectively buying exposure to Tencent for only 16.2x 2021F earnings.
Often overlooked, Naspers also gives exposure to a diverse range of online businesses, in differing stages of development, which are likely to structurally benefited from lasting changes to consumer behaviour in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Further, Management has signalled their focus on meaningfully reducing its discount to listed net asset value by implementing a $5bn share buyback program, during November 2020, which should also support the share price through volatility in the near term. 
The key risk to the investment thesis regards the newly proposed Anti-Monopoly Compliance Guidelines for the Platform Economy released by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), a clear signal of tougher antitrust regulations going forward. Tencent should, however, be able to manage through these better than the large eCommerce players.

2021 High Conviction: Naspers, Deeply Discounted Exposure to Accelerating Online Sales

United States

Makemytrip Ltd. offers travel services over the Internet.  The Company operates websites that allow travelers to research and plan trips and book airline tickets, hotels, packages, rail tickets, bus tickets, and rental cars. Makemytrip also offers access to travel insurance.

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Makemytrip Ltd (MMYT US)

Trip.com Secondary: Further Upside to SOTP Possible with Recovery in Travel and Hospitality Sector

We believe there will be further upside to our SOTP once the global travel market starts recovering from the pandemic and HKEX listing will be...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Trip.com Secondary Listing: No Heads in the Clouds

Trip.com passed its HKEx listing hearing to raise up to $1-2bn through a secondary listing. We think that Trip.com is an attractive play on travel...

Arun George

India Channel Insight | Easemytrip, Matrimony.com, Trent

Our objective with India Channel Insight is to share snippets from our channel interactions that are part of our research process. For this insight...

Pranav Bhavsar

EaseMyTrip IPO: Not so Easy on the Eye

While Easemytrip operations suggest short-mid term growth, our forensic checks do indicate some balance sheet and governance concerns as well which...

Nitin Mangal

2021 High Conviction: Naspers, Deeply Discounted Exposure to Accelerating Online Sales

Naspers: Deeply discounted exposure to Tencent, a diverse range of online businesses set to benefit from accelerated online activity post-COVID-19...

Wium Malan, CFA

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