Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*All Good: Housing Development Finance Corp. (HDFC.IN) [HDFC] reported FY 2Q21 bottom-line results of INR 33.7 bn - increasing INR 3.8 bn (12.6%) linked quarter. From a core operating perspective, we note that HDFC came in at INR 32.0 bn, a whopping INR 15.5 bn (93.4%) increase over FY 1Q21.*Credit Risk Decelerating: The trend in annualized NCOs has declined, by our calculation, to 16 bp from 21 bp in the previous quarter. In addition, the level of net new NPLs has also decelerated to INR 3.6 bn or 14.2% on an annualized basis versus 46.6% in FY 1Q21. We would have preferred that HDFC remained more vigilant given the continued uncertainty with COVID-19. As such, we still find that HDFC’s reserve still needs shoring up by another INR 68 bn or just over two quarters of core operating results; and*Positive Operating Jaws: . Key to core operating result performance was: a) net interest income improvement of INR 2.8 bn (8.3%) led by both linked quarter loan growth of 2.0% and NIM improvement of 17 bp to 2.75%; b) an INT 306 mn (7.7%) decline in operating expenses which pushed HDFC’s C/I ratio even lower by 160 bp to 9.2%.

*All Good: Housing Development Finance Corp. (HDFC.IN) [HDFC] reported FY 2Q21 bottom-line results of INR 33.7 bn - increasing INR 3.8 bn (12.6%) linked quarter. From a core operating perspective, we note that HDFC came in at INR 32.0 bn, a whopping INR 15.5 bn (93.4%) increase over FY 1Q21.*Credit Risk Decelerating: The trend in annualized NCOs has declined, by our calculation, to 16 bp from 21 bp in the previous quarter. In addition, the level of net new NPLs has also decelerated to INR 3.6 bn or 14.2% on an annualized basis versus 46.6% in FY 1Q21. We would have preferred that HDFC remained more vigilant given the continued uncertainty with COVID-19. As such, we still find that HDFC’s reserve still needs shoring up by another INR 68 bn or just over two quarters of core operating results; and*Positive Operating Jaws: . Key to core operating result performance was: a) net interest income improvement of INR 2.8 bn (8.3%) led by both linked quarter loan growth of 2.0% and NIM improvement of 17 bp to 2.75%; b) an INT 306 mn (7.7%) decline in operating expenses which pushed HDFC’s C/I ratio even lower by 160 bp to 9.2%.

Housing Development Finance Corp. – “Great Quarter Guys”

*In-Line Results: Bajaj Finance (BAF.IN) [Bajaj] reported FY 2Q21 results of INR 9.6 bn - essentially in-line with FY 1Q21 results. While in line on a linked quarter basis, we do note improvement in the NIM by 70 bp to 9.9% which drove the INR 1.1 bn (3.3%) increase in net interest income;*Credit Risk Increasing: On a linked quarter basis, we found that gross NPAs actually declined INR 5.2 bn (26.9%)  - primarily on account of FY 2Q21 NCOs of INR 20.5 bn which appear to have accelerated again. Credit remains weak with net new NPAs of INR 15.3 or an alarming 434.1% annualized increase. Loss reserves also remain light in the neighbourhood of INR 66.4 bn by our calculation or over five quarter of pre-tax results; and*Lowered Guidance: For AUM, Bajaj expects AUM growth during FY 2021 of just between 6%-7% - well below previous guidance of 10-12%. Several other headwinds over the near-term are also worrisome, including: 1) the elevated payment-bounce rate; and 2) the lack of clarity surrounding the flexi loan book.

*In-Line Results: Bajaj Finance (BAF.IN) [Bajaj] reported FY 2Q21 results of INR 9.6 bn - essentially in-line with FY 1Q21 results. While in line on a linked quarter basis, we do note improvement in the NIM by 70 bp to 9.9% which drove the INR 1.1 bn (3.3%) increase in net interest income;*Credit Risk Increasing: On a linked quarter basis, we found that gross NPAs actually declined INR 5.2 bn (26.9%)  - primarily on account of FY 2Q21 NCOs of INR 20.5 bn which appear to have accelerated again. Credit remains weak with net new NPAs of INR 15.3 or an alarming 434.1% annualized increase. Loss reserves also remain light in the neighbourhood of INR 66.4 bn by our calculation or over five quarter of pre-tax results; and*Lowered Guidance: For AUM, Bajaj expects AUM growth during FY 2021 of just between 6%-7% - well below previous guidance of 10-12%. Several other headwinds over the near-term are also worrisome, including: 1) the elevated payment-bounce rate; and 2) the lack of clarity surrounding the flexi loan book.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

*HFC Harmonization With NBFCs: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had initially published a draft proposal for changes in regulations for Housing Finance Companies (HFC) in June 2020, seeking commentary from stakeholders by July 15, 2020; and*Final Regulatory Changes: After stakeholder review, there is essentially one key change to the draft proposal mandating a higher 60% of total assets be “qualifying housing finance assets” and that a minimum of 50% of total assets be housing loans. The RBI has indicated that other differences between HFC and NBFC regulations will be eliminated over a period of two years.

*HFC Harmonization With NBFCs: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) had initially published a draft proposal for changes in regulations for Housing Finance Companies (HFC) in June 2020, seeking commentary from stakeholders by July 15, 2020; and*Final Regulatory Changes: After stakeholder review, there is essentially one key change to the draft proposal mandating a higher 60% of total assets be “qualifying housing finance assets” and that a minimum of 50% of total assets be housing loans. The RBI has indicated that other differences between HFC and NBFC regulations will be eliminated over a period of two years.

Reserve Bank of India  - Final HFC Changes

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

We wonder if those banks that saw radical growth of impairment costs during FY20 will see the most improvement in the current year? We can look to some, with reported first quarter data to see if there is any sign of this occurring already. While India moved into shutdown while in its own banking and economic crisis, there can be some relief for banks and specialty finance companies with re-opening and with an improving economy, especially where impairment costs were very high. And it may be the type of credit that each company emphasizes that is key to differentiate amongst India’s lenders.

We wonder if those banks that saw radical growth of impairment costs during FY20 will see the most improvement in the current year? We can look to some, with reported first quarter data to see if there is any sign of this occurring already. While India moved into shutdown while in its own banking and economic crisis, there can be some relief for banks and specialty finance companies with re-opening and with an improving economy, especially where impairment costs were very high. And it may be the type of credit that each company emphasizes that is key to differentiate amongst India’s lenders.

*Solid Numbers For Now: LIC Housing Financing (LICHF.IN) [LIC] reported FY 1Q21 earnings results of INR 8.2 bn, improving INR 4.0 bn (94.0%) linked quarter. Driving the results, we note positive operating jaws. Also aiding LIC’s results, we note an INR 85 mn (14.9%) decline in loss provisioning tracking the improvement in overall credit quality; and substantial tax rate decline from 54.8% to 19.7% linked quarter; and*Credit Risk Flat, But Reserves Light: Stage 3 loans at LIC declined INR 216 mn (0.4%) linked quarter to INR 59.4 bn, and remained flat relative to total loans at 2.83%.There is no doubt under our calculation that LIC’s provisions remain woefully inadequate. We believe reserves need to be buttressed in the neighborhood of INR 33 bn or an entire year on bottom-line performance.

*Solid Numbers For Now: LIC Housing Financing (LICHF.IN) [LIC] reported FY 1Q21 earnings results of INR 8.2 bn, improving INR 4.0 bn (94.0%) linked quarter. Driving the results, we note positive operating jaws. Also aiding LIC’s results, we note an INR 85 mn (14.9%) decline in loss provisioning tracking the improvement in overall credit quality; and substantial tax rate decline from 54.8% to 19.7% linked quarter; and*Credit Risk Flat, But Reserves Light: Stage 3 loans at LIC declined INR 216 mn (0.4%) linked quarter to INR 59.4 bn, and remained flat relative to total loans at 2.83%.There is no doubt under our calculation that LIC’s provisions remain woefully inadequate. We believe reserves need to be buttressed in the neighborhood of INR 33 bn or an entire year on bottom-line performance. 

LIC Housing Finance - Positive Operating Deltas

India

Manappuram Finance Ltd. is a non-banking finance company. The Company offers loans against gold collateral, business loans, vehicle loans, foreign exchange and money transfer services; and sells gold coins.

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Manappuram Finance (MGFL IN)

Housing Development Finance Corp. – “Great Quarter Guys”

HOUSING DEVELOPMENT FINANCE CORP: Positive Operating Jaws Were Just An Outgrowth Of This Well Oiled Machine. Credit Risk Too Substantially...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bajaj Finance – Removing The Lipstick

BAJAJ FINANCE: Results Would Suggest That Credit Portfolio Risk Has Significantly Deteriorated, and That Reserves Need Buttressing By Over Five...

Thomas J. Monaco

Reserve Bank of India - Final HFC Changes

RESERVE BANK OF INDIA - Final Housing Finance and Non-Bank Financial Company Rule Harmonization Regulations Now Set With Stricter Rules.

Thomas J. Monaco

India Banks – Weak Turn Strong?

We wonder if those banks that saw radical growth of impairment costs during FY20 will see the most improvement in the current year? We have the...

Daniel Tabbush

LIC Housing Finance - Positive Operating Deltas

*Solid Numbers For Now: LIC Housing Financing (LICHF.IN) [LIC] reported FY 1Q21 earnings results of INR 8.2 bn, improving INR 4.0 bn (94.0%) linked...

Thomas J. Monaco

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