Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Growth rates of outbound and domestic air travel slowed again in September</li>
<li>Initial read on Golden Week demand: weak activity growth, weaker spending</li>
<li>In our view, it's increasingly difficult to retain an upbeat view of the sector</li>
</ul>


Growth rates of outbound and domestic air travel slowed again in September
Initial read on Golden Week demand: weak activity growth, weaker spending
In our view, it's increasingly difficult to retain an upbeat view of the sector


Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Pace of Growth Slowed, Again | Golden Week? | October 2025

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/larvotto-resources-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36437:1" rel="noopener">Larvotto Resources (LRV AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minmetals-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1917:1" rel="noopener">Minmetals Land (230 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apiam-animal-health-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26109:1" rel="noopener">Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynch-group-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36359:1" rel="noopener">Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joy-city-property-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10958:1" rel="noopener">Joy City Property (207 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shibaura-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12704:1" rel="noopener">Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandarin-oriental-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4773:1" rel="noopener">Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 42 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Larvotto Resources (LRV AU) and Minmetals Land (230 HK).
Key updates/news took place on: Apiam Animal Health (AHX AU), Lynch Group Holdings (LGL AU), Joy City Property (207 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), and Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP).


Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura Elect., Larvotto, Minmetals Land, Lynch Group, Mandarin Oriental

<ul>
<li>On the 31sr July, Chinese property play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/joy-city-property-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10958:1" rel="noopener">Joy City (207 HK)</a> announced a Scheme buyback, @ $0.62/share (declared final), a 67.57% premium; but arguably a 158% premium to undisturbed.</li>
<li>Yes, this was a ~70% discount to NAV. However, Joy City had traded at P/B of 0.14x, on average, the past five years. Earnings have trended south in that timeframe.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/1023/2025102300920.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Scheme Document's now out</a>, with a Court Meeting on the 17th November and expected payment around the 4th December. The IFA (Somerley) says "fair &amp; reasonable". It probably is.</li>
</ul>


On the 31sr July, Chinese property play Joy City (207 HK) announced a Scheme buyback, @ $0.62/share (declared final), a 67.57% premium; but arguably a 158% premium to undisturbed.
Yes, this was a ~70% discount to NAV. However, Joy City had traded at P/B of 0.14x, on average, the past five years. Earnings have trended south in that timeframe.

The Scheme Document's now out, with a Court Meeting on the 17th November and expected payment around the 4th December. The IFA (Somerley) says "fair &amp; reasonable". It probably is.


Joy City (207 HK): 17th November Vote On COFCO's Offer

<ul>
<li>After suspending shares on the 30th September, SOE-Backed, Chinese property play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/minmetals-land-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1917:1" rel="noopener">Minmetals Land (230 HK)</a>, has now <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/1023/2025102300765.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> an Offer, by way of a Scheme buyback, from parent China Minmetals. </li>
<li>The Offer Price of HK$1/share, declared final, is a punchy 185.71% premium to last close. And also a 179% premium over the 30th June 2025 NAV. Optically, looks solid also.</li>
<li>Disinterested shareholders hold 38.12%. They should be happy with terms. This should wrap up (perhaps) late February 2026. </li>
</ul>


After suspending shares on the 30th September, SOE-Backed, Chinese property play Minmetals Land (230 HK), has now announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme buyback, from parent China Minmetals. 
The Offer Price of HK$1/share, declared final, is a punchy 185.71% premium to last close. And also a 179% premium over the 30th June 2025 NAV. Optically, looks solid also.
Disinterested shareholders hold 38.12%. They should be happy with terms. This should wrap up (perhaps) late February 2026. 


Minmetals Land (230 HK): An Offer Premium Of 179% To NAV? Yes Please

<ul>
<li>Consumer electronics play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idt-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5352:1" rel="noopener">IDT International (167 HK)</a> is currently <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/1022/2025102200722.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspended</a> pursuant to the Takeovers Code. But don't expect your usual Offer to unfold. </li>
<li>On the 2nd October, IDT announced that Tiger Energy Technology, which holds 72.1% of share out, has been placed into receivership. Tiger Energy is 50% owned by Tiger Chen (ED).</li>
<li>IDT was recently suspended for 581 days after failing to publish its annual results. Upon resumption of trading, predicated on a re-organisation, the major shareholder promptly exited. Without telling anyone. </li>
</ul>


Consumer electronics play IDT International (167 HK) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. But don't expect your usual Offer to unfold. 
On the 2nd October, IDT announced that Tiger Energy Technology, which holds 72.1% of share out, has been placed into receivership. Tiger Energy is 50% owned by Tiger Chen (ED).
IDT was recently suspended for 581 days after failing to publish its annual results. Upon resumption of trading, predicated on a re-organisation, the major shareholder promptly exited. Without telling anyone. 


IDT (167 HK): Expect Long-Dated MGO As Major Shareholder Placed In Receivership

Singapore

Mandarin Oriental International Limited is an owner and operator of luxury hotels, resorts, and residences. The Group now operates, or has under development, hotels in the Americas, Europe, Middle East, and North Africa. Mandarin Oriental International also operates, or has under development, residences at Mandarin Oriental.

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)

Monthly Chinese Tourism Tracker | Pace of Growth Slowed, Again | Golden Week? | October 2025

Chinese travel activity in September slowed, and a first look at Golden Week activity also suggests weak growth in travel and spending. We see few...

Tracking Traffic

Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Shibaura Elect., Larvotto, Minmetals Land, Lynch Group, Mandarin Oriental

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Joy City (207 HK): 17th November Vote On COFCO's Offer

Trading wide at a 3.8%/111.4% gross/annualised spread. To be expected. If small-cap illiquid arbs are your bent, get involved here. Otherwise, this...

David Blennerhassett

Minmetals Land (230 HK): An Offer Premium Of 179% To NAV? Yes Please

Clean deal. If small-cap illiquid arbs are your bent get involved here. I'd pay up to HK$0.95/share, assuming end of February 2026 payment.

David Blennerhassett

IDT (167 HK): Expect Long-Dated MGO As Major Shareholder Placed In Receivership

Consumer electronics play IDT International (167 HK) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. But don't expect your usual Offer to...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)