IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apm-human-services-internation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34808:1" rel="noopener">APM Human Services (APM AU)</a> IE considers Madison Dearborn Partners (MDP)’s A$1.45 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the A$1.40 to A$1.74 valuation range. </li>
<li>The offer is conditional on FIRB, US HSR and shareholder approval. FIRB approval should be forthcoming as MDP is the second-largest shareholder.</li>
<li>While the offer remains underwhelming, rollover shareholders and quiet retail boards should ensure the vote passes. At last close and for the 10 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.4%/10.1%.</li>
</ul>


The APM Human Services (APM AU) IE considers Madison Dearborn Partners (MDP)’s A$1.45 offer fair and reasonable as it is within the A$1.40 to A$1.74 valuation range. 
The offer is conditional on FIRB, US HSR and shareholder approval. FIRB approval should be forthcoming as MDP is the second-largest shareholder.
While the offer remains underwhelming, rollover shareholders and quiet retail boards should ensure the vote passes. At last close and for the 10 October payment, the gross/annualised spread is 1.4%/10.1%.


APM Human Services (APM AU): Scheme Vote on 18 September

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> announced that the pre-condition was satisfied, and Bain’s tender offer remains unchanged at JPY1,755 per share, a 52.1% premium to the undisturbed (8 December).</li>
<li>Shareholders will breathe a sigh of relief as the weak 4Q and significant impairments have raised concerns that Bain would cut its offer or walk away.</li>
<li>The offer attractiveness has increased partly due to lower consensus. At the last close and for a 3 April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.0%/22.8%.</li>
</ul>



Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) announced that the pre-condition was satisfied, and Bain’s tender offer remains unchanged at JPY1,755 per share, a 52.1% premium to the undisturbed (8 December).
Shareholders will breathe a sigh of relief as the weak 4Q and significant impairments have raised concerns that Bain would cut its offer or walk away.
The offer attractiveness has increased partly due to lower consensus. At the last close and for a 3 April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.0%/22.8%.


Outsourcing (2427 JP): Relief as Bain Launches Tender at Unchanged Terms

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> has disclosed a weak 4Q materially below guidance due to cost overruns and JPY6,875 million in impairments. The results did not provide an update on Bain's tender.</li>
<li>The weak 4Q has raised concerns that Bain would reconsider terms. Our take is that the results will not warrant a change in the DCF valuation or breach a pre-condition. </li>
<li>Bain is likely to consider the results a reflection of near-term industry weakness rather than company-specific issues. The annualised spread for a March-end completion is 9.8%.</li>
</ul>



Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) has disclosed a weak 4Q materially below guidance due to cost overruns and JPY6,875 million in impairments. The results did not provide an update on Bain's tender.
The weak 4Q has raised concerns that Bain would reconsider terms. Our take is that the results will not warrant a change in the DCF valuation or breach a pre-condition. 
Bain is likely to consider the results a reflection of near-term industry weakness rather than company-specific issues. The annualised spread for a March-end completion is 9.8%.


Outsourcing (2427 JP): The Weak 4Q Unlikely to Deter Bain

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> has delayed the announcement of its 4QFY2023 results from 14 to 19 February as the impairment loss accounting is yet to be completed. </li>
<li>Outsourcing has a history of impairments, resulting in missed forecasts, which suggests a weak 4Q. The concern is that a weak 4Q could force Bain to trim its JPY1,755 offer. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/temp-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1428:1" rel="noopener">Persol Holdings (2181 JP)</a> guidance cut today suggests a weak 4Q reflects near-term industry weakness rather than company-specific issues. The weak 4Q is a valuable cover to justify the less-than-stellar offer.</li>
</ul>



Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) has delayed the announcement of its 4QFY2023 results from 14 to 19 February as the impairment loss accounting is yet to be completed. 
Outsourcing has a history of impairments, resulting in missed forecasts, which suggests a weak 4Q. The concern is that a weak 4Q could force Bain to trim its JPY1,755 offer. 

Persol Holdings (2181 JP) guidance cut today suggests a weak 4Q reflects near-term industry weakness rather than company-specific issues. The weak 4Q is a valuable cover to justify the less-than-stellar offer.


Outsourcing (2427 JP): Keep Calm or Worry About the Earnings Delay?

<ul>
<li>Bain has delayed the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/outsourcing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7431:1" rel="noopener">Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP)</a> tender start from late January due to more time required to satisfy the European regulatory approval pre-condition.</li>
<li>Potential reasons for bumping are opportunistic timing, re-rating of Japanese peers, a high minority acceptance rate, and an offer below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range.</li>
<li>Potential reasons for keeping terms unchanged are no activists, a 52.1% premium to the undisturbed price, and an offer still attractive compared to Japanese peers’ multiples and price ratios.  </li>
</ul>


Bain has delayed the Outsourcing Inc (2427 JP) tender start from late January due to more time required to satisfy the European regulatory approval pre-condition.
Potential reasons for bumping are opportunistic timing, re-rating of Japanese peers, a high minority acceptance rate, and an offer below the mid-point of the IFA DCF valuation range.
Potential reasons for keeping terms unchanged are no activists, a 52.1% premium to the undisturbed price, and an offer still attractive compared to Japanese peers’ multiples and price ratios.  


Outsourcing (2427 JP): Tender Start Delayed, but Does Bain Need to Bump?

United States

Manpowergroup Inc. provides non-governmental employment services through offices located around the world. The Company's principal operations include temporary staffing services, contract services, and training and testing of temporary and permanent workers. Manpower provides employment services to a wide variety of customers.

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Manpowergroup Inc (MAN US)

APM Human Services (APM AU): Scheme Vote on 18 September

While the offer remains underwhelming, rollover shareholders and quiet retail boards should ensure the vote passes. At the last close, the gross...

Arun George

Outsourcing (2427 JP): Relief as Bain Launches Tender at Unchanged Terms

Shareholders will breathe a sigh of relief at the unchanged terms. At the last close and for a 3 April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.0%...

Arun George

Outsourcing (2427 JP): The Weak 4Q Unlikely to Deter Bain

Our take is that the results will not warrant a change in the IFA's DCF valuation or breach a pre-condition, suggesting Bain maintains terms. The...

Arun George

Outsourcing (2427 JP): Keep Calm or Worry About the Earnings Delay?

Persol's guidance cut today suggests a potentially weak 4Q reflects near-term industry weakness. The ongoing impairments are a valuable cover for...

Arun George

Outsourcing (2427 JP): Tender Start Delayed, but Does Bain Need to Bump?

Barring the emergence of an activist, Bain will likely keep the offer unchanged. The risk/reward profile is unattractive as the downside (estimated...

Arun George

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