Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In last week's 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments.</li>
<li>We said don't be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are testing major confluence of support at 5770-5850 and $490-$500, respectively, the first of our potential bottom levels discussed last week.</li>
</ul>


In last week's 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) displayed several bearish short-term developments.
We said don't be surprised if there is a test of the bottom of the range at either 5770-5850 or 5600-5670, where we would be buyers
The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) are testing major confluence of support at 5770-5850 and $490-$500, respectively, the first of our potential bottom levels discussed last week.


S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Manulife Financial recently disclosed its Q3 2024 earnings, revealing a generally robust performance with some nuanced insights.</li><li>The company reported record financial and operating results, with substantial growth noted across several key metrics including core earnings, Annual Premium Equivalent (APE) sales, and new business Contractual Service Margin (CSM).</li><li>Positives were prominently highlighted by the 40% surge in APE sales, led primarily by Asia which provided record-breaking figures in terms of sales growth, new business CSM, and new business value.</li></ul>

Manulife Financial recently disclosed its Q3 2024 earnings, revealing a generally robust performance with some nuanced insights.The company reported record financial and operating results, with substantial growth noted across several key metrics including core earnings, Annual Premium Equivalent (APE) sales, and new business Contractual Service Margin (CSM).Positives were prominently highlighted by the 40% surge in APE sales, led primarily by Asia which provided record-breaking figures in terms of sales growth, new business CSM, and new business value.

Manulife Financial Corporation’s Risk Recalibration Revolution: The Smart Play in Reinsurance Management! - Major Drivers

Royal Bank Of Canada / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The SPX is breaking out after several months of consolidation. Same with the MSCI ACWI index. We are upgrading our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish.</li>
<li>Breakouts could mean other countries are getting ready to break out, but the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remains our only country overweight</li>
<li>Moreover, major indexes in the next two largest global equity markets (Europe and Japan) remain below critical resistances of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX.</li>
</ul>


The SPX is breaking out after several months of consolidation. Same with the MSCI ACWI index. We are upgrading our outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) to bullish.
Breakouts could mean other countries are getting ready to break out, but the U.S. (S&amp;P 500) remains our only country overweight
Moreover, major indexes in the next two largest global equity markets (Europe and Japan) remain below critical resistances of 5000-5120 on the EURO STOXX 50 and 2740-2820 on the TOPIX.


S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Upgrading MSCI ACWI to Bullish; Buys in Services, Financials

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.</li>
<li>Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.</li>
<li>As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is back to test YTD highs and important resistance in the 5670-5783 range. This is an important target/resistance area we have discussed for weeks.
Using the 2007 SPX topping analog suggests a 2% or less move above the prior all-time high set in July at 5670 before topping, which gives the 5783 number.
As long as SPX does not have a weekly close above 5783 we continue to recommend reducing risk and shifting to defensives,and this is the ideal time to do so.


SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

<ul><li>Manulife Financial recently held its second-quarter 2024 earnings call to review its financial and operating results.</li><li>The material focused on the company's strategic updates, recent accomplishments, and future directions.</li><li>Positively, Manulife Financial showcased a transition from a high-risk, low Return on Equity (ROE) entity in 2017 to a lower-risk, high ROE company today.</li></ul>

Manulife Financial recently held its second-quarter 2024 earnings call to review its financial and operating results.The material focused on the company's strategic updates, recent accomplishments, and future directions.Positively, Manulife Financial showcased a transition from a high-risk, low Return on Equity (ROE) entity in 2017 to a lower-risk, high ROE company today.

Manulife Financial Corporation: Adaptation to Macro-Economic Changes and Regulatory Evolution in Asian Markets! - Major Drivers

Canada

Manulife Financial Corporation provides financial protection products and investment management services to individuals, families, businesses, and groups. The Company conducts operations in Canada, the United States, and Asia, as well as reinsurance operations on a global basis.  Manulife offers products such as annuities, pension products, life insurance, health insurance, and mutual funds.

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Manulife Financial (945 HK)

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Initial Support; Russell and Nasdaq With Bullish Breadth Divergences

$SPX and $QQQ $NDX Testing Initial Supports at 5770-5850 and $490-$500; Russell 2000 $IWM and Nasdaq 100 Bullish Breadth Divergences (% above 20-...

Vermilion Research

Manulife Financial Corporation’s Risk Recalibration Revolution: The Smart Play in Reinsurance Management! - Major Drivers

Manulife Financial recently disclosed its Q3 2024 earnings, revealing a generally robust performance with some nuanced insights. The company...

Baptista Research

S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI Breaking Out; Upgrading MSCI ACWI to Bullish; Buys in Services, Financials

$SPX and MSCI $ACWI Breaking Out; Upgrading Outlook on ACWI and SPX to Bullish as of last Fridays close above 5783; Buys in Services, Financials;...

Vermilion Research

SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 Is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track

$SPX Testing Resistance as Rate Cut Cycle Begins; SPX 5670-5783 is Resistance, 2007 Analog on Track if Below 5783. Still Neutral, prefer to sell...

Vermilion Research

Manulife Financial Corporation: Adaptation to Macro-Economic Changes and Regulatory Evolution in Asian Markets! - Major Drivers

Manulife Financial recently held its second-quarter 2024 earnings call to review its financial and operating results. The material focused on the...

Baptista Research

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