EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Recent analysis around a potential float of Aramco, Saudi Arabia's national oil company, has missed the mark. This is not a last, desperate, move on the part of the government, but part of a series of wider trends in the kingdom and its neighbours.

Recent analysis around a potential float of Aramco, Saudi Arabia's national oil company, has missed the mark. This is not a last, desperate, move on the part of the government, but part of a series of wider trends in the kingdom and its neighbours.

Aramco and Saudi Wealth "De-Destribution"

Transport Sector, China and Asia-focused Research

Charles De Trenck

I outlined my 2016 quick takeaways from visiting clients, ex-clients and friends prior to the break (2016 A year of Reckoning, 23 December 2015), and I saw also @Hao Wang outlined a few similar ideas.  In this note I put a little more meat on the bones of the December note. In sum, the blow-ups we saw starting to develop in 2015 should continue in 2016. But given the market’s forward looking powers we should continue examining and accumulating as we did in 4Q15. If we timed the pain in commodities according to tax selling panics during 4Q15, we came out ahead.  New developments in places like Saudi may add more fuel to volatility. But we are looking at a multi-year story with many twists and turns. No easy way out. But a landscape abounding with opportunity.Topics from meetings<ul><li>Hong Kong and malaise of Civil Service…</li><li>Bank revenues from deals, ECM and role of research…</li><li>Space X and other cool updates</li><li>Three scenarios 2016</li><li>A last word on faulty data</li></ul>Long note with core views and investment ideas up front.

I outlined my 2016 quick takeaways from visiting clients, ex-clients and friends prior to the break (2016 A year of Reckoning, 23 December 2015), and I saw also @Hao Wang outlined a few similar ideas.  In this note I put a little more meat on the bones of the December note. In sum, the blow-ups we saw starting to develop in 2015 should continue in 2016. But given the market’s forward looking powers we should continue examining and accumulating as we did in 4Q15. If we timed the pain in commodities according to tax selling panics during 4Q15, we came out ahead.  New developments in places like Saudi may add more fuel to volatility. But we are looking at a multi-year story with many twists and turns. No easy way out. But a landscape abounding with opportunity.Topics from meetingsHong Kong and malaise of Civil Service…Bank revenues from deals, ECM and role of research…Space X and other cool updatesThree scenarios 2016A last word on faulty dataLong note with core views and investment ideas up front.

2016 Names Not Trades and a Tough Energy Environment (And Other Recent Visits)

Hao Wang, CFA

This is a very short note on my top 5 trade recommendations in 2016 after the close of 2015 based on my previous note of 2016 outlook (i.e. be aggressive in Q1 but defensive thereafter). The basis are higher commodities prices led by copper, crude and some bulk, and relatively weaker USD. <figure class="editor-figure"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/004/820/original/Fig6.png?1451718588" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="4820"><figcaption class="figcaption">Top five macro trades in 2016Q1</figcaption></figure>In the above trade recommendations, you also have levels of profit target and stop loss. They are ranked by the ratio of reward/risk. Going forward I will keep updating levels…

This is a very short note on my top 5 trade recommendations in 2016 after the close of 2015 based on my previous note of 2016 outlook (i.e. be aggressive in Q1 but defensive thereafter). The basis are higher commodities prices led by copper, crude and some bulk, and relatively weaker USD. Top five macro trades in 2016Q1In the above trade recommendations, you also have levels of profit target and stop loss. They are ranked by the ratio of reward/risk. Going forward I will keep updating levels…

This is a quick note on macro views in 2016. The analysis is largely based on cycles of industrial production, inventory levels, real estate investment, monetary policies and fiscal policies.To establish a view on commodities, equity, fixed income or other asset classes, we need to have a solid view on two biggest swing factors: US dollar and China's economy. My views are: slightly weaker dollar in first half 2016 followed by a much stronger dollar in 2nd half; China's economy may see short term…

This is a quick note on macro views in 2016. The analysis is largely based on cycles of industrial production, inventory levels, real estate investment, monetary policies and fiscal policies.To establish a view on commodities, equity, fixed income or other asset classes, we need to have a solid view on two biggest swing factors: US dollar and China's economy. My views are: slightly weaker dollar in first half 2016 followed by a much stronger dollar in 2nd half; China's economy may see short term…

Be Aggressive in Q1 2016 and Be Defensive Through Rest of 2016

I've been on the road meeting clients, ex-clients and friends and will have more to report after the holidays. But wanted to flag some takeaways and trades for 2016 here. I think we can have three scenarios and go with the most likely as our base case. At the same time I think we continue to accumulate the pain trades slowly. Evidence of tax based selling is all around us and we may feel like krap continuing down this path. But the evidence from trading, to me, appears clear enough. Wishing a happy holidays to all.

I've been on the road meeting clients, ex-clients and friends and will have more to report after the holidays. But wanted to flag some takeaways and trades for 2016 here. I think we can have three scenarios and go with the most likely as our base case. At the same time I think we continue to accumulate the pain trades slowly. Evidence of tax based selling is all around us and we may feel like krap continuing down this path. But the evidence from trading, to me, appears clear enough. Wishing a happy holidays to all. 

2016: A Year of Reckoning, But Possibly Not as Painful For The Prepared

United States

Marathon Petroleum Corporation refines, transports, and markets petroleum products. The Company sells its products to resellers and consumers in the mid-west, gulf coast, and southeast United States.

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Marathon Petroleum (MPC US)

Aramco and Saudi Wealth "De-Destribution"

Recent analysis around a potential float of Aramco, Saudi Arabia's national oil company, has missed the mark. This is not a last, desperate, move...

Emad Mostaque

2016 Names Not Trades and a Tough Energy Environment (And Other Recent Visits)

I outlined my 2016 quick takeaways from visiting clients, ex-clients and friends prior to the break (2016 A year of Reckoning, 23 December 2015),...

Charles De Trenck

Top 5 Macro Trades in 2016Q1

This is a very short note on my top 5 trade recommendations in 2016 after the close of 2015 based on my previous note of 2016 outlook (i.e. be...

Hao Wang, CFA

Be Aggressive in Q1 2016 and Be Defensive Through Rest of 2016

This is a quick note on macro views in 2016. The analysis is largely based on cycles of industrial production, inventory levels, real estate...

Hao Wang, CFA

2016: A Year of Reckoning, But Possibly Not as Painful For The Prepared

I've been on the road meeting clients, ex-clients and friends and will have more to report after the holidays. But wanted to flag some takeaways...

Charles De Trenck

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