New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We expect Port of Tauranga (POT) to report a strong FY25 result on 29 August 2025, driven by a combination of container volume growth, pricing initiatives, and cost efficiencies, particularly for rail.</li><li>Our FY25 underlying NPAT forecast of NZ$124m (+22% on the prior year) is at the top end of management's NZ$115m–NZ$125m guidance range.</li><li>Pricing gains included a doubling of its container infrastructure levy and material increases in unit bulk charges.</li></ul>

We expect Port of Tauranga (POT) to report a strong FY25 result on 29 August 2025, driven by a combination of container volume growth, pricing initiatives, and cost efficiencies, particularly for rail.Our FY25 underlying NPAT forecast of NZ$124m (+22% on the prior year) is at the top end of management's NZ$115m–NZ$125m guidance range.Pricing gains included a doubling of its container infrastructure levy and material increases in unit bulk charges.

Port Of Tauranga FY25 Preview—Pricing Opportunity

<h2>Transport Titbits — Upper North Island Supply Chain Study; Report #2</h2>

The Upper North Island Supply Chain Study (UNISCS) Working Group has issued its second report as part of its review of NZ’s freight and logistics sector for the Upper North Island. The Study has direct implications for Port of Tauranga&nbsp;(POT) and&nbsp;Marsden Maritime Holdings&nbsp;(MMH), which both own 50% stakes in Northport. The report is titled “Options and Analysis”, but is only a little over four pages long in content. Unsurprisingly the Working Group’s preferred option is the&nbsp;managed closure of Ports of Auckland (POAL) and the development of Northport. This is NZ First’s, and the report’s Ministerial sponsor Shane Jones’, political objective. The preferred scenario incorporates development of landside infrastructure including the North Auckland rail line and spur to Northport and a new inland freight hub in Northwest Auckland.&nbsp;
The preferred option is seemingly justified by an accompanying 85 page EY report which undertakes an economic analysis of the scenarios, albeit specific data and detail to support the cost benefit conclusions is not provided. The alternative scenarios considered include (1) maintaining the current status quo; (2) managed closure of POAL, POT expands capacity to accept all POAL freight, no development at Northport; (3) managed closure of POAL, both POT and Northport expand capacity to accept all POAL freight; (4) managed closure of POAL, construction of a new “super” port that could handle all of POAL’s freight task.&nbsp;
The Working Group’s final report will likely be issued by the end of 2019 and consider how to transition from the current state to the preferred option. The practical realities of undertaking this transition mean there will be a number of major challenges to overcome including: &nbsp;&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>Auckland Council/POAL&nbsp;unlikely to agree — The current Auckland Mayor, Phil Goff, commissioned the Port Future Study, which was completed in July 2016. The report recommended that POAL relocation options, at either Manukau and Firth of Thames, be investigated more thoroughly. The report rejected both Northport and Tauranga as viable long term relocation options given “neither of these ports has sufficient capacity in the long term to accommodate both their own growth and cargo for Auckland”. The report’s recommendations have been incorporated into POAL’s masterplan, which was endorsed by Auckland Council in May 2018.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Ownership&nbsp;conflicts — A potential relocation of POAL to Northport will raise significant ownership issues for both ports. While POAL is owned 100% by Auckland Council. Northport is 50% owned by POT and 50% owned by Marsden Maritime Holdings, which in turn is 19.9% owned by POAL. In order to pursue a relocation of POAL a common ownership model may need to be consider across POAL and Northport. Moreover, in order to ensure a workable competitive market between Northport and POT, the latter would likely need to divest its stake in the former.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Funding — Upgrading Northport for the equivalent container handling facilities as POAL would be a significant investment. Moreover, the North Auckland rail line would need material upgrades in excess of that already announced, including a Spur to Northport and a new inland port. The total cost would be multiple billons of dollars that would likely need significant central Government funding. We suspect the Government doesn’t have an appetite for major capital investment in ports.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
While sceptical of the political incentives/motivations of the UNISCS, we’re supportive of greater longer term planning on critical infrastructure and hope at the very least the Study helps inform the broader discussion and longer term outlook for the Upper North Island Supply Chain. There is a reasonable chance that the Study provides NZ First with sufficient political goodwill for its Northland support base (Winston Peters held the Northland seat between 2015 and 2017) regardless of whether it has any broader support. However, with another closely fought election looming anything in the political world can not be discounted.
Andy Bowley
Head of Research&nbsp;
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Transport Titbits — Upper North Island Supply Chain Study; Report #2

The Upper North Island Supply Chain Study (UNISCS) Working Group has issued its second report as part of its review of NZ’s freight and logistics sector for the Upper North Island. The Study has direct implications for Port of Tauranga&nbsp;(POT) and&nbsp;Marsden Maritime Holdings&nbsp;(MMH), which both own 50% stakes in Northport. The report is titled “Options and Analysis”, but is only a little over four pages long in content. Unsurprisingly the Working Group’s preferred option is the&nbsp;managed closure of Ports of Auckland (POAL) and the development of Northport. This is NZ First’s, and the report’s Ministerial sponsor Shane Jones’, political objective. The preferred scenario incorporates development of landside infrastructure including the North Auckland rail line and spur to Northport and a new inland freight hub in Northwest Auckland.&nbsp;
The preferred option is seemingly justified by an accompanying 85 page EY report which undertakes an economic analysis of the scenarios, albeit specific data and detail to support the cost benefit conclusions is not provided. The alternative scenarios considered include (1) maintaining the current status quo; (2) managed closure of POAL, POT expands capacity to accept all POAL freight, no development at Northport; (3) managed closure of POAL, both POT and Northport expand capacity to accept all POAL freight; (4) managed closure of POAL, construction of a new “super” port that could handle all of POAL’s freight task.&nbsp;
The Working Group’s final report will likely be issued by the end of 2019 and consider how to transition from the current state to the preferred option. The practical realities of undertaking this transition mean there will be a number of major challenges to overcome including: &nbsp;&nbsp;

Auckland Council/POAL&nbsp;unlikely to agree — The current Auckland Mayor, Phil Goff, commissioned the Port Future Study, which was completed in July 2016. The report recommended that POAL relocation options, at either Manukau and Firth of Thames, be investigated more thoroughly. The report rejected both Northport and Tauranga as viable long term relocation options given “neither of these ports has sufficient capacity in the long term to accommodate both their own growth and cargo for Auckland”. The report’s recommendations have been incorporated into POAL’s masterplan, which was endorsed by Auckland Council in May 2018.&nbsp;


Ownership&nbsp;conflicts — A potential relocation of POAL to Northport will raise significant ownership issues for both ports. While POAL is owned 100% by Auckland Council. Northport is 50% owned by POT and 50% owned by Marsden Maritime Holdings, which in turn is 19.9% owned by POAL. In order to pursue a relocation of POAL a common ownership model may need to be consider across POAL and Northport. Moreover, in order to ensure a workable competitive market between Northport and POT, the latter would likely need to divest its stake in the former.&nbsp;


Funding — Upgrading Northport for the equivalent container handling facilities as POAL would be a significant investment. Moreover, the North Auckland rail line would need material upgrades in excess of that already announced, including a Spur to Northport and a new inland port. The total cost would be multiple billons of dollars that would likely need significant central Government funding. We suspect the Government doesn’t have an appetite for major capital investment in ports.&nbsp;

While sceptical of the political incentives/motivations of the UNISCS, we’re supportive of greater longer term planning on critical infrastructure and hope at the very least the Study helps inform the broader discussion and longer term outlook for the Upper North Island Supply Chain. There is a reasonable chance that the Study provides NZ First with sufficient political goodwill for its Northland support base (Winston Peters held the Northland seat between 2015 and 2017) regardless of whether it has any broader support. However, with another closely fought election looming anything in the political world can not be discounted.
Andy Bowley
Head of Research&nbsp;




T:


+64 4 495 8246




M:


+64 21 338 941




TF:


0800 367 227




F:


+64 4 495 8193




P:


PO Box: 5266, Wellington 6145








W:


www.forsythbarr.co.nz



Twitter:

@forsythbarr





Transport Titbits — Upper North Island Supply Chain Study; Report #2

New Zealand

Marsden Maritime Holdings Limited operates a marina port in New Zealand where the Company provides cargo handling, marine salvage, storage and port operation services.  The Company owns a fleet of tug vessels for the provision of towage and handling charter services.

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Marsden Maritime (MMH NZ)

Port Of Tauranga FY25 Preview—Pricing Opportunity

We expect Port of Tauranga (POT) to report a strong FY25 result on 29 August 2025, driven by a combination of container volume growth, pricing...

Forsyth Barr

Transport Titbits — Upper North Island Supply Chain Study; Report #2

Transport Titbits — Upper North Island Supply Chain Study; Report #2 The Upper North Island Supply Chain Study (UNISCS) Working Group has issued...

Forsyth Barr

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