'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p><strong>FROM OPERATING TO FINANCING CASH FLOWS</strong> -  Having examined Operating Cash Flow in our previous <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-stress-tests-part-2-operating-cash-flow-accruals" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40321" rel="noopener">Insight</a>, we shall look into the 'stressors' between Operating Cash Flow and Financing Cash Flow. In our reformulated Cash Flow Statements, cash flows relating to operating activities are divided into Operating Cash Flows and Investing Cash Flows, which comprise Fixed Asset and Inventory Cash Flows.  Free Cash Flow is the sum of Operating Cash Flow, Fixed Asset Cash Flow and Inventory Cash Flow. Inventories are not included in Operating Cash Flow as they are considered discretionary, are often related to Fixed asset Cash Flows, and can be highly seasonal.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/141/225/original/2020-06-21_08-34-07.png?1592698079" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="141225"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>JAPAN WAS FCF POSITIVE IN Q4..</strong> - Despite the decline in Operating Cash Flow in the last quarter (the final quarter of the Fiscal Year for most Japanese companies), Investing Cash Flow was more positive than in any quarter since FY2016-Q4, which also coincided with the last business cycle low. As a result, the aggregate Free Cash Flow for the 3,639 listed non-financial companies (excluding<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener"> Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>) was an impressive ¥8.4 trillion or an annualised yield of 6.4%.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/141/223/original/2020-06-21_08-51-12.png?1592697088" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="141223"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>..AS CAPEX WAS PUT ON HOLD</strong> - Seasonally Japanese companies capital expenditures are higher in the second half of the fiscal year- in FY2019, ¥21trillion was added to Operating Assets. In contrast, FY2020 saw a 79% decline in capex to ¥4.4 trillion, all of which was spent in the third quarter. This decline is the most substantial second-half quarter-on-quarter contraction in fixed asset outflows since 2009.   </p><p>In the <strong>DETAIL</strong> below, we shall highlight those 'outlier' large-cap companies which are either end of the capex, inventory and Free Cash Flow tables, and focus on those with the greatest intimations of business 'stress'. We have excluded the Real Estate Sector from this analysis due to the inherent volatility of fixed assets and inventory cash flows fo these companies.</p>

FROM OPERATING TO FINANCING CASH FLOWS -  Having examined Operating Cash Flow in our previous Insight, we shall look into the 'stressors' between Operating Cash Flow and Financing Cash Flow. In our reformulated Cash Flow Statements, cash flows relating to operating activities are divided into Operating Cash Flows and Investing Cash Flows, which comprise Fixed Asset and Inventory Cash Flows.  Free Cash Flow is the sum of Operating Cash Flow, Fixed Asset Cash Flow and Inventory Cash Flow. Inventories are not included in Operating Cash Flow as they are considered discretionary, are often related to Fixed asset Cash Flows, and can be highly seasonal.Source: Japan AnalyticsJAPAN WAS FCF POSITIVE IN Q4.. - Despite the decline in Operating Cash Flow in the last quarter (the final quarter of the Fiscal Year for most Japanese companies), Investing Cash Flow was more positive than in any quarter since FY2016-Q4, which also coincided with the last business cycle low. As a result, the aggregate Free Cash Flow for the 3,639 listed non-financial companies (excluding Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)) was an impressive ¥8.4 trillion or an annualised yield of 6.4%.Source: Japan Analytics..AS CAPEX WAS PUT ON HOLD - Seasonally Japanese companies capital expenditures are higher in the second half of the fiscal year- in FY2019, ¥21trillion was added to Operating Assets. In contrast, FY2020 saw a 79% decline in capex to ¥4.4 trillion, all of which was spent in the third quarter. This decline is the most substantial second-half quarter-on-quarter contraction in fixed asset outflows since 2009.   In the DETAIL below, we shall highlight those 'outlier' large-cap companies which are either end of the capex, inventory and Free Cash Flow tables, and focus on those with the greatest intimations of business 'stress'. We have excluded the Real Estate Sector from this analysis due to the inherent volatility of fixed assets and inventory cash flows fo these companies.

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 3 - Inventory, Fixed Asset & Free Cash Flows

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/124/787/original/2020-03-26_05-50-57.png?1585169482" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="124787"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>EARLY WARNINGS</strong> - This Insight is the second is a series of posts that will provide a 'real-time' update of the damage to corporate Japan's revenues and profits from the unfolding Covid-19 recession. Tuesday saw twenty-one forecast revisions by twenty companies and one withdrawal of forecasts and dividend cancellation by noodle restaurant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gourmet-kineya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11937:1" rel="noopener">Gourmet Kineya (9850 JP)</a>. Jewellery retailer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/happiness-and-d-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1246:1" rel="noopener">Happiness and D (3174 JP)</a> also reported interim results. The most significant revision was from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tdk-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18847:1" rel="noopener">TDK (6762 JP)</a> shown above.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/124/792/original/File%202020-03-26%204%2009%2018.jpeg?1585171207" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="124792"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • covid19japan.com</div><p><strong>COVID-19</strong> - As we discussed in an earlier <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-market-update-hit-the-boj-bid-and-wait-for-the-absolute-value-opportunity" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37670" rel="noopener">Insight</a>, Japan's 'softly-softly' approach to the virus was likely to be 'tested' as the country was being encouraged to operate as close to normal last weekend. Yesterday saw the largest jump in new cases in one day since the outbreak Japan - 97 and 2 more deaths bringing the totals to 1,299 confirmed cases and 44 deaths from 23,521 people tested. Tokyo is now the epicentre with 220 cases which has prompted Governor Koike to recommend that people work from home as much as possible and avoid leaving home at this weekend as well as eating and drinking in groups - so no <em>hanami</em> parties! Despite the Governor's preference for cancellation and her scathing comments about an event in Saitama last weekend, another K-1 event to be held at Korakuen will go ahead behind closed doors. The Olympic torch relays have been cancelled. It remains to be seen if these persuasive measures will slow the spread. <strong>The rational assumption would be that Tokyo is now on the same path as London and New York.</strong></p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsEARLY WARNINGS - This Insight is the second is a series of posts that will provide a 'real-time' update of the damage to corporate Japan's revenues and profits from the unfolding Covid-19 recession. Tuesday saw twenty-one forecast revisions by twenty companies and one withdrawal of forecasts and dividend cancellation by noodle restaurant Gourmet Kineya (9850 JP). Jewellery retailer Happiness and D (3174 JP) also reported interim results. The most significant revision was from TDK (6762 JP) shown above.Source • covid19japan.comCOVID-19 - As we discussed in an earlier Insight, Japan's 'softly-softly' approach to the virus was likely to be 'tested' as the country was being encouraged to operate as close to normal last weekend. Yesterday saw the largest jump in new cases in one day since the outbreak Japan - 97 and 2 more deaths bringing the totals to 1,299 confirmed cases and 44 deaths from 23,521 people tested. Tokyo is now the epicentre with 220 cases which has prompted Governor Koike to recommend that people work from home as much as possible and avoid leaving home at this weekend as well as eating and drinking in groups - so no hanami parties! Despite the Governor's preference for cancellation and her scathing comments about an event in Saitama last weekend, another K-1 event to be held at Korakuen will go ahead behind closed doors. The Olympic torch relays have been cancelled. It remains to be seen if these persuasive measures will slow the spread. The rational assumption would be that Tokyo is now on the same path as London and New York.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions Early Warning System (EWS) 25th March

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/531/original/2020-02-06_03-39-10.png?1580933731" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116531"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>5TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP</strong> - Wednesday saw 171 Results and 65 Forecast/Revision announcements. The Results Score set another new three-year low losing 16bps to reach 0.35, while the Forecast/Revision Score shed 7bps to reach 0.08. The sogo shosha trading company results were weak, with the exception of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/itochu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18448:1" rel="noopener">Itochu (8001 JP)</a>. Amongst large caps, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/marubeni-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7463:1" rel="noopener">Marubeni (8002 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dena-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:747:1" rel="noopener">DeNA(2432 JP)</a> had Operating Losses, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mazda-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20528:1" rel="noopener">Mazda Motor (7261 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujikura-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10768:1" rel="noopener">Fujikura (5803 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daicel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10533:1" rel="noopener">Daicel (4202 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furukawa-electric-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5193:1" rel="noopener">Furukawa Electric (5801 JP)</a> saw steep quarterly year-on-year OP declines. Amongst the 'winners' were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/square-enix-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15003:1" rel="noopener">Square Enix (9684 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rengo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20278:1" rel="noopener">Rengo (3941 JP)</a>.</p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• SECTOR TIMELINE •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/116/532/original/2020-02-06_03-42-28.png?1580934310" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="116532"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>SECTOR TIMELINE</strong> - The <strong>Wholesale</strong> Sector was the largest loser yesterday with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi (8058 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kanematsu-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5810:1" rel="noopener">Kanematsu (8020 JP)</a> joining Marubeni in posting poor results. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-nippon-sanso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15756:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Nippon Sanso (4091 JP)</a> slowing momentum and downward revision saw the <strong>Chemical</strong> Sector move lower again. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agc-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2167:1" rel="noopener">AGC (5201 JP)</a> initial forecast for FY2020 helped the <strong>Other Materials</strong> Sector recover some ground. </p>

Source • Japan Analytics5TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - Wednesday saw 171 Results and 65 Forecast/Revision announcements. The Results Score set another new three-year low losing 16bps to reach 0.35, while the Forecast/Revision Score shed 7bps to reach 0.08. The sogo shosha trading company results were weak, with the exception of Itochu (8001 JP). Amongst large caps, Marubeni (8002 JP) and DeNA(2432 JP) had Operating Losses, while Mazda Motor (7261 JP), Fujikura (5803 JP), Daicel (4202 JP), and Furukawa Electric (5801 JP) saw steep quarterly year-on-year OP declines. Amongst the 'winners' were Square Enix (9684 JP), and Rengo (3941 JP).• SECTOR TIMELINE •Source • Japan AnalyticsSECTOR TIMELINE - The Wholesale Sector was the largest loser yesterday with Mitsubishi (8058 JP) and Kanematsu (8020 JP) joining Marubeni in posting poor results. Taiyo Nippon Sanso (4091 JP) slowing momentum and downward revision saw the Chemical Sector move lower again. AGC (5201 JP) initial forecast for FY2020 helped the Other Materials Sector recover some ground. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 5th February ▲5201 4202 6269 ▼4091 9987 6869

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<p>Below are several recent updates on Japanese retail and consumer markets that, while not meriting in-depth Insights of their own, are important trends impacting retail stocks.</p>
<h2><strong>TPP: profit and loss for Japan</strong></h2>
<p>The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal came into effect in late December, immediately cutting import tariffs across much of Southeast Asia. Despite some claims that this will help consumers, the cuts are most likely to benefit trading firms and leading food wholesalers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/19778" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19778:1">Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14985" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14985:1">Itochu Shokuhin (2692 JP)</a> rather than result in lower retail prices.</p>
<h2><strong>Mash and Jun to start premium online lifestyle mall in October</strong></h2>
<p>Two leading lifestyle and fashion firms, Mash Holdings and Jun, will together launch a new challenger in the fashion and lifestyle online market in October. This is a threat to the premium end of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18379" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18379:1">ZOZO's (3092 JP)</a> marketplace as well as the nascent Stripe Department, a joint venture between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/27445" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27445:1">Softbank (9434 JP)</a> and Stripe International, an unlisted fashion retailer.</p>
<h2><strong>A flat fashion market</strong></h2>
<p>A comprehensive recent survey of fashion industry managers suggests they are less optimistic about the outlook for 2019 compared to a year ago, weighed down with worries about depopulation, global trade, and changing consumer sentiment. More optimistically, many are investing in e-commerce as well as preparing to expand overseas.</p>
<h2><strong>Organic foods growing in popularity</strong></h2>
<p>After something of a false start back in the 1990s, organic fresh food is now moving out of a limited niche and into the mainstream, benefiting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10145" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10145:1">Oisix Ra Daichi (3182 JP)</a> in particular.</p>
<h2><strong>Muji really is no name in China</strong></h2>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/2765" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2765:1">Ryohin Keikaku's (7453 JP)</a> Muji is popular in China, but trademark conflicts, easy replication, as well as new emulator brands, all mean the "no brand" brand is not assured of continued success in the market.</p>

Below are several recent updates on Japanese retail and consumer markets that, while not meriting in-depth Insights of their own, are important trends impacting retail stocks.
TPP: profit and loss for Japan
The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal came into effect in late December, immediately cutting import tariffs across much of Southeast Asia. Despite some claims that this will help consumers, the cuts are most likely to benefit trading firms and leading food wholesalers like Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP) and Itochu Shokuhin (2692 JP) rather than result in lower retail prices.
Mash and Jun to start premium online lifestyle mall in October
Two leading lifestyle and fashion firms, Mash Holdings and Jun, will together launch a new challenger in the fashion and lifestyle online market in October. This is a threat to the premium end of ZOZO's (3092 JP) marketplace as well as the nascent Stripe Department, a joint venture between Softbank (9434 JP) and Stripe International, an unlisted fashion retailer.
A flat fashion market
A comprehensive recent survey of fashion industry managers suggests they are less optimistic about the outlook for 2019 compared to a year ago, weighed down with worries about depopulation, global trade, and changing consumer sentiment. More optimistically, many are investing in e-commerce as well as preparing to expand overseas.
Organic foods growing in popularity
After something of a false start back in the 1990s, organic fresh food is now moving out of a limited niche and into the mainstream, benefiting Oisix Ra Daichi (3182 JP) in particular.
Muji really is no name in China
Ryohin Keikaku's (7453 JP) Muji is popular in China, but trademark conflicts, easy replication, as well as new emulator brands, all mean the "no brand" brand is not assured of continued success in the market.

Also in the News: Updates from Japanese Retail Markets

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies, BBSP Asia

Federico D'Inca

Macro & Asian equity Technical Strategies

BBSP Asia

Technical Analysis

<p><strong>Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms</strong></p><p>• SOUTH KOREA: Strategic downgrade on KOSPI from overweight to neutral ( Note that KOSPI has broken key support at 270 as well.)</p><p><strong>Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms</strong><br><br>• Upgrade Australia (ASX 200) from neutral to overweight. The index reacted off the trend pivot support at 5570 and vs MXAP, signals are also bullish.<br>• Downgrade Korea (KOSPI 200) from tactical neutral to underweight as RV (KOSPI/ MXAP) is breaking support and shows room for further tactical underperformance with KOSPI below 270.<br>• “Hold” rating unchanged for Japan (Nikkei 225), Hong Kong (HSI), HSCEI (China) and Taiwan (TWSE). Still overweight for India (Nifty 50)</p>

Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms• SOUTH KOREA: Strategic downgrade on KOSPI from overweight to neutral ( Note that KOSPI has broken key support at 270 as well.)Mid Term Country Allocation (Tactical view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms  • Upgrade Australia (ASX 200) from neutral to overweight. The index reacted off the trend pivot support at 5570 and vs MXAP, signals are also bullish. • Downgrade Korea (KOSPI 200) from tactical neutral to underweight as RV (KOSPI/ MXAP) is breaking support and shows room for further tactical underperformance with KOSPI below 270. • “Hold” rating unchanged for Japan (Nikkei 225), Hong Kong (HSI), HSCEI (China) and Taiwan (TWSE). Still overweight for India (Nifty 50)

BBSP ASIA Equity Asia Weekly Research - 31 Oct 2018

Japan

Marubeni Corporation is a trading company with business divisions in iron & steel, information technology, utility & infrastructure, energy, food, metals & mineral resources, development & construction, and chemicals.  The Company markets its products globally through a network of sales offices and representative firms.

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Marubeni Corp (8002 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 3 - Inventory, Fixed Asset & Free Cash Flows

FROM OPERATING TO FINANCING CASH FLOWS - Having examined Operating Cash Flow in our previous Insight, we shall look into the 'stressors' between...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions Early Warning System (EWS) 25th March

EARLY WARNINGS - This Insight is the second is a series of posts that will provide a 'real-time' update of the damage to corporate Japan's revenues...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions Daily Roundup - 5th February ▲5201 4202 6269 ▼4091 9987 6869

5TH FEBRUARY ROUNDUP - Wednesday saw 171 Results and 65 Forecast/Revision announcements. The Results Score set another new three-year low losing...

Campbell Gunn

Also in the News: Updates from Japanese Retail Markets

Below are several recent updates on Japanese retail and consumer markets that, while not meriting in-depth Insights of their own, are important...

Michael Causton

BBSP ASIA Equity Asia Weekly Research - 31 Oct 2018

Long Term Allocation (Strategic view) Relative Value vs MXAP in USD terms• SOUTH KOREA: Strategic downgrade on KOSPI from overweight to neutral (...

BBSP Asia

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