'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair is home centre <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keiyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14415:1" rel="noopener">Keiyo (8168 JP)</a> and the department store <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP)</a> although the latter is seeing an improvement in earnings momentum.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/606/original/2020-09-30_06-18-07.png?1601414298" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162606"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/607/original/2020-09-29_06-15-33.png?1601414581" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162607"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source fr all charts and tables: Japan Analytics</div><div>
<hr>
DAILY STATS
</div><hr><div>16 Quarterly Results</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Results Score: 50% Positive / 6% Neutral / 44% Negative</li>
<li>Average Results Score Change: -0.9 points</li>
<li>Average % Change in Revenue: -6.3% Quarter YoY / -4.2% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.9ppt</li>
<li>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 19%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div>15 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 14% Positive / 14% Neutral / 72% Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -3.8 points</li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair is home centre Keiyo (8168 JP) and the department store J Front Retailing (3086 JP) although the latter is seeing an improvement in earnings momentum.Source fr all charts and tables: Japan Analytics

DAILY STATS
16 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 50% Positive / 6% Neutral / 44% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.9 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -6.3% Quarter YoY / -4.2% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.9ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 19%
15 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 14% Positive / 14% Neutral / 72% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -3.8 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​29 - Home Centres <> Depāto, Sugi, Mitsubishi Materials, Koito

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:<ul>
<li>An overview of consumer demand and retail performance</li>
<li>Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.</li>
<li>Rankings: <ul>
<li>Market share and size by sector/format</li>
<li>By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion</li>
<li>By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part I which provides a quick overview of all retailing. Part II, which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-retail-review-2019-20-part-ii-a-sector-by-sector-review-of-winners-and-losers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">can be read here</a>.

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:
An overview of consumer demand and retail performance
Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.
Rankings: 
Market share and size by sector/format
By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion
By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.


As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part I which provides a quick overview of all retailing. Part II, which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector can be read here.

The Japan Retail Review: Winners and Losers in Japanese Retailing (Part I)

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.
Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.
Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.
The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:
<ul>
<li>An overview of consumer demand and retail performance</li>
<li>Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.</li>
<li>Rankings:
<ul>
<li>Market share and size by sector/format</li>
<li>By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion</li>
<li>By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-japan-retail-review-winners-and-losers-in-japanese-retailing-part-i" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here</a>.

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.
Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.
Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.
The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:

An overview of consumer demand and retail performance
Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.
Rankings:

Market share and size by sector/format
By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion
By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.



As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here.

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

Shopping centre sales rose again in 2018-19 thanks to decent local support, investment in upgrading and expanding malls, inbound tourism growth and the growing enthusiasm to use dining and leisure options at station-based malls across the country.Tourism boosted outlet malls once again and helped Narita Airport’s SC to widen its lead as the biggest mall by far, but it was the big station-based SCs that performed the best on average.Despite this relative buoyancy, the number of new malls in 2018 collapsed to the lowest level in 20 years and 2019 was also a poor year. Shortages of labour and materials in the pre-Olympic infrastructure boom haven’t helped but nor has greater competition and falling interest in all but the best retailers’ new stores.The following is an in-depth review of shopping centre development and performance in 2018-19 including a ranking of the top 50 shopping centres by sales.

Shopping centre sales rose again in 2018-19 thanks to decent local support, investment in upgrading and expanding malls, inbound tourism growth and the growing enthusiasm to use dining and leisure options at station-based malls across the country.Tourism boosted outlet malls once again and helped Narita Airport’s SC to widen its lead as the biggest mall by far, but it was the big station-based SCs that performed the best on average.Despite this relative buoyancy, the number of new malls in 2018 collapsed to the lowest level in 20 years and 2019 was also a poor year. Shortages of labour and materials in the pre-Olympic infrastructure boom haven’t helped but nor has greater competition and falling interest in all but the best retailers’ new stores.The following is an in-depth review of shopping centre development and performance in 2018-19 including a ranking of the top 50 shopping centres by sales.

Japan Shopping Centres 2018-19: Sales Rise Again but Fewer New Malls

The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector results for 2018-19 giving investors a quick overview of the strengths and weaknesses in the sector as well as highlighting key winners and losers by sales growth and profit. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-retail-highlights-2018-19-sector-by-sector-and-winners-in-each-sector" target="_blank" rel="noopener">In an accompanying Insight, we provide snapshot reviews of each sector to give investors quick guides to seach retail sector's strengths and weaknesses.</a>
Leading retailers grew sales and share last year and made more money too. Although savings rates rose to their highest level ever in 2018, this also meant that a lot of households had money stored up, providing better retailers and brands with an opportunity to convince them to spend some of it.
Many formats and sectors had a good year including convenience stores, discount chains, drugstores, speciality chains such as in fashion and even consumer electronics (at least for now), but some also contracted, notably GMS chains and department stores.
Retailing also became more profitable last year, up 6% on average for the top 250 retailers, and is expected to grow profits further on the back of new technologies wrought by the pressures of the labour shortage. However, profit growth is slowing as competition increases across different formats.

The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector results for 2018-19 giving investors a quick overview of the strengths and weaknesses in the sector as well as highlighting key winners and losers by sales growth and profit. In an accompanying Insight, we provide snapshot reviews of each sector to give investors quick guides to seach retail sector's strengths and weaknesses.
Leading retailers grew sales and share last year and made more money too. Although savings rates rose to their highest level ever in 2018, this also meant that a lot of households had money stored up, providing better retailers and brands with an opportunity to convince them to spend some of it.
Many formats and sectors had a good year including convenience stores, discount chains, drugstores, speciality chains such as in fashion and even consumer electronics (at least for now), but some also contracted, notably GMS chains and department stores.
Retailing also became more profitable last year, up 6% on average for the top 250 retailers, and is expected to grow profits further on the back of new technologies wrought by the pressures of the labour shortage. However, profit growth is slowing as competition increases across different formats.

Japan Retail Review and Ranking 2018-19: Profit Growth Slowing as Competition Increases

Japan

MARUI GROUP CO., LTD. operates department stores which sell clothing, accessories, home appliances, and food stuffs.  The Company also provides consumer loan services.  Marui Group operates in the Tokyo area.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Marui Group (8252 JP)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/29 - Home Centres <> Depāto, Sugi, Mitsubishi Materials, Koito

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS 9 Quarterly Results Results Score: 44% Positive / 22% Neutral / 34% Negative Average Results Score...

Campbell Gunn

The Japan Retail Review: Winners and Losers in Japanese Retailing (Part I)

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of...

Michael Causton

Japan Shopping Centres 2018-19: Sales Rise Again but Fewer New Malls

Shopping centre sales rose again in 2018-19 thanks to decent local support, investment in upgrading and expanding malls, inbound tourism growth and...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail Review and Ranking 2018-19: Profit Growth Slowing as Competition Increases

The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector results for 2018-19 giving investors a quick overview of the strengths and weaknesses in...

Michael Causton

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​29 - Home Centres <> Depāto, Sugi, Mitsubishi Materials, Koito

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS 9 Quarterly Results Results Score: 44% Positive / 22% Neutral / 34% Negative Average Results Score...

Campbell Gunn

The Japan Retail Review: Winners and Losers in Japanese Retailing (Part I)

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of...

Michael Causton

Japan Shopping Centres 2018-19: Sales Rise Again but Fewer New Malls

Shopping centre sales rose again in 2018-19 thanks to decent local support, investment in upgrading and expanding malls, inbound tourism growth and...

Michael Causton

Japan Retail Review and Ranking 2018-19: Profit Growth Slowing as Competition Increases

The following is an in-depth review of the retail sector results for 2018-19 giving investors a quick overview of the strengths and weaknesses in...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/29 - Home Centres <> Depāto, Sugi, Mitsubishi Materials, Koito