Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Suzuki reported its 3QFY22 results on Tuesday with revenue of INR236bn (+15.0% QoQ, -0.2% YoY) and OP of INR12.5bn implying an OPM of 5.3% compared to 0.5% in 2QFY22. </li>
<li>The reported revenue was 1.1% lower than the consensus estimates, while OP was 165.9% higher (INR7.8bn). </li>
<li>That reads positive overall but we are concerned that margins are still not on track to achieve consensus estimates for next FY.</li>
</ul>


Suzuki reported its 3QFY22 results on Tuesday with revenue of INR236bn (+15.0% QoQ, -0.2% YoY) and OP of INR12.5bn implying an OPM of 5.3% compared to 0.5% in 2QFY22. 
The reported revenue was 1.1% lower than the consensus estimates, while OP was 165.9% higher (INR7.8bn). 
That reads positive overall but we are concerned that margins are still not on track to achieve consensus estimates for next FY.


Maruti Suzuki – Are Profitability Improvements Enough?

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

<ul>
<li>We interact with six dealers of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> and Royal Enfield (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a>)</li>
<li>The demand environment for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hero-motocorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2391:1" rel="noopener">Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN)</a> remains weak.</li>
<li>The supply situation and demand environment for Royal Enfield is improving. </li>
</ul>


We interact with six dealers of Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) and Royal Enfield (Eicher Motors (EIM IN))
The demand environment for Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) remains weak.
The supply situation and demand environment for Royal Enfield is improving. 


India Channel Insight #21 | Hero Motocorp, Royal Enfield (Eicher Motors)

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h3>About The Narrative</h3>
<p>Earnings conference calls are important sources that aid us in the identification of potential catalysts and drivers of stock returns. Every quarter we go through these transcripts and connect them with primary research with the objective of assessing on-ground reality against management commentary. </p>
<p>The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eicher-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18316:1" rel="noopener">Eicher Motors (EIM IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a>.</p>
<p>We have separated the quotes to highlight<em><strong> Business Performance and Demand Environment, Consumer Behaviour and Profile, Commodity Inflation, Discounts &amp; Margins, Inventory, New Products / EV / Hybrid,  Exports, Outlook.</strong></em></p>

About The Narrative
Earnings conference calls are important sources that aid us in the identification of potential catalysts and drivers of stock returns. Every quarter we go through these transcripts and connect them with primary research with the objective of assessing on-ground reality against management commentary. 
The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN) / Eicher Motors (EIM IN) / Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) / Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) / Ashok Leyland (AL IN).
We have separated the quotes to highlight Business Performance and Demand Environment, Consumer Behaviour and Profile, Commodity Inflation, Discounts &amp; Margins, Inventory, New Products / EV / Hybrid,  Exports, Outlook.

The Narrative | Q2 FY22 | India 4Ws - Maruti, Eicher, Tata Motors, Mahindra, Ashok Leyland

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<p>We upgrade our rating from HOLD to BUY and revise our TP upwards to Rs 8,500 (from Rs 7,500 earlier) and value the stock at 25x its FY24E EPS, implying an upside of 16% from CMP.</p><div class="content-highlight"><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></div>

We upgrade our rating from HOLD to BUY and revise our TP upwards to Rs 8,500 (from Rs 7,500 earlier) and value the stock at 25x its FY24E EPS, implying an upside of 16% from CMP.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maruti Suzuki: Growth Prospects Improving Despite Weak Q2

<div>
<p>The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns.</p>
<p>For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on Demand Environment &amp; Business performance; Margins &amp; Inventory; Supply Chain, price increases and discounting; Competition and market share; New launches; Electric vehicles (EVs); Outlook and Strategy</p>
</div>
<p>Companies covered included <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mahindra-mahindra-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16441:1" rel="noopener">Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-motors-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:216:1" rel="noopener">Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN)</a> (Primarily Standalone India Business) / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ashok-leyland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20104:1" rel="noopener">Ashok Leyland (AL IN)</a> /  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maruti-suzuki-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:733:1" rel="noopener">Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)</a></p>


The objective of "The Narrative" is to aid us in assessing management commentary, which we can further connect with ground reality via primary checks, aiding us in identifying key catalysts that could be potential drivers of stock returns.
For the narrative, we will be covering commentary on Demand Environment &amp; Business performance; Margins &amp; Inventory; Supply Chain, price increases and discounting; Competition and market share; New launches; Electric vehicles (EVs); Outlook and Strategy

Companies covered included Mahindra &amp; Mahindra (MM IN) / Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) (Primarily Standalone India Business) / Ashok Leyland (AL IN) /  Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India 4Ws - MM, TTMT, AL, MSIL

India

Maruti Suzuki India Limited manufactures and exports automobiles. Maruti collaborated with Suzuki of Japan to produce affordable cars for the average Indian.

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Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL IN)

Maruti Suzuki – Are Profitability Improvements Enough?

Maruti Suzuki posted positive overall results but we are concerned that margins are still not on track to achieve consensus estimates for next FY.

Mio Kato

India Channel Insight #21 | Hero Motocorp, Royal Enfield (Eicher Motors)

For this India Channel Insight, we interact with six dealers of Hero Motocorp (HMCL IN) and Royal Enfield (Eicher Motors (EIM IN)) to understand...

Pranav Bhavsar

The Narrative | Q2 FY22 | India 4Ws - Maruti, Eicher, Tata Motors, Mahindra, Ashok Leyland

The edition focuses on key quotes from the earnings transcripts of Maruti Suzuki / Eicher Motors / Tata Motors Ltd / Mahindra & Mahindra / Ashok...

Pranav Bhavsar

Maruti Suzuki: Growth Prospects Improving Despite Weak Q2

We upgrade our rating from HOLD to BUY and revise our TP upwards to Rs 8,500 (from Rs 7,500 earlier) and value the stock at 25x its FY24E EPS,...

Axis Direct

The Narrative | Q1 FY22 | India 4Ws - MM, TTMT, AL, MSIL

For the narrative, we will be covering commentary from Companies covered included Mahindra & Mahindra (MM IN) / Tata Motors Ltd (TTMT IN) / Ashok...

Pranav Bhavsar

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