Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Marvell Technology Inc.'s second quarter of fiscal year 2026 demonstrated notable progress, with record revenue of $2.006 billion—an increase of 6% sequentially and 58% year-over-year.</li><li>The company's significant growth was fueled by the data center end market, which represented 74% of the total revenue and saw a 69% year-over-year increase, largely driven by strong AI demand.</li><li>This demonstrates the company's successful pivot to focus on data centers and AI, a strategy underscored by the recent divestiture of its automotive ethernet business for $2.5 billion, allowing for concentrated investments in the data center sector.</li></ul>

Marvell Technology Inc.'s second quarter of fiscal year 2026 demonstrated notable progress, with record revenue of $2.006 billion—an increase of 6% sequentially and 58% year-over-year.The company's significant growth was fueled by the data center end market, which represented 74% of the total revenue and saw a 69% year-over-year increase, largely driven by strong AI demand.This demonstrates the company's successful pivot to focus on data centers and AI, a strategy underscored by the recent divestiture of its automotive ethernet business for $2.5 billion, allowing for concentrated investments in the data center sector.

Marvell Technology Sets Sights on 20% Market Share in Data Center Silicon; Is It Achievable?

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>Marvell AI event yesterday, good efforts to explain its Data Center / Accelerators roadmap, growth opportunity: ~50% Cagr to 2028, a bit higher than TSMC (45%), lower than AMD (60%). </li>
<li>CEO suggests that data center revenues can increase 4.4x to 2028, total revenue to ~triple to CY28. That’s possible but Marvell’s fragility is margins and lower scalability than AMD, Nvidia.  </li>
<li>The nature of custom-designed ASICs is a lot of R&amp;D for a single customer. Marvell GAAP margins are thin and therefore a binary bet on operating leverage.</li>
</ul>


Marvell AI event yesterday, good efforts to explain its Data Center / Accelerators roadmap, growth opportunity: ~50% Cagr to 2028, a bit higher than TSMC (45%), lower than AMD (60%). 
CEO suggests that data center revenues can increase 4.4x to 2028, total revenue to ~triple to CY28. That’s possible but Marvell’s fragility is margins and lower scalability than AMD, Nvidia.  
The nature of custom-designed ASICs is a lot of R&amp;D for a single customer. Marvell GAAP margins are thin and therefore a binary bet on operating leverage.


Marvell Expects Hyper-Growth in Data Center Custom Chips (ASIC) With a Higher Earnings Risk

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Qualcomm acquired Alphawave, a UK firm that specializes in chip design IP, especially silicon photonics and chiplets. </li>
<li>AMD acquired 3 firms. Untether AI, an AI edge / inference chip designer. Brium, an AI software and compiler firm. Enosemi, a silicon photonics and co-packaged optics firm. </li>
<li>4 acquisitions in 2 weeks. AMD and Qualcomm are putting their money where their mouth is: the future is AI. This also illustrates how far ahead Nvidia is.</li>
</ul>


Qualcomm acquired Alphawave, a UK firm that specializes in chip design IP, especially silicon photonics and chiplets. 
AMD acquired 3 firms. Untether AI, an AI edge / inference chip designer. Brium, an AI software and compiler firm. Enosemi, a silicon photonics and co-packaged optics firm. 
4 acquisitions in 2 weeks. AMD and Qualcomm are putting their money where their mouth is: the future is AI. This also illustrates how far ahead Nvidia is.


<ul><li>Marvell Technology Inc.'s first-quarter fiscal 2026 results reveal a mixed bag of impressive growth, strategic maneuvers, and cautious optimism amid ongoing global economic uncertainties.</li><li>The company achieved record revenues of $1.895 billion, reflecting a robust 63% year-over-year growth and surpassing the midpoint of their guidance.</li><li>This growth was primarily driven by the data center end market, which accounted for 76% of total revenue, fueled by heightened demand for AI-driven solutions.</li></ul>

Marvell Technology Inc.'s first-quarter fiscal 2026 results reveal a mixed bag of impressive growth, strategic maneuvers, and cautious optimism amid ongoing global economic uncertainties.The company achieved record revenues of $1.895 billion, reflecting a robust 63% year-over-year growth and surpassing the midpoint of their guidance.This growth was primarily driven by the data center end market, which accounted for 76% of total revenue, fueled by heightened demand for AI-driven solutions.

Marvell Technology: How Is The Management Leveraging AI & Data Center Market Growth?

<ul>
<li>2025 AI revenue ~US$19bn, up 55-60% YoY. Similar growth in 2026 or $~30bn. Mngt declined to update 2027 addressable market (SAM), previously stated at $60-90bn. That looks too high.</li>
<li>Risk of disappointment for 2027? No, Consensus is too low. Our estimate for 2026 revenue is $79bn versus consensus at $73bn, $95bn in ’27 vs Consensus $83.</li>
<li>Consensus for AI stocks is too low. But AVGO is expensive at 33x FY26 Consensus, most likely ~30x and ~25x 2027 if I’m correct. That’s more expensive than NVDA.</li>
</ul>


2025 AI revenue ~US$19bn, up 55-60% YoY. Similar growth in 2026 or $~30bn. Mngt declined to update 2027 addressable market (SAM), previously stated at $60-90bn. That looks too high.
Risk of disappointment for 2027? No, Consensus is too low. Our estimate for 2026 revenue is $79bn versus consensus at $73bn, $95bn in ’27 vs Consensus $83.
Consensus for AI stocks is too low. But AVGO is expensive at 33x FY26 Consensus, most likely ~30x and ~25x 2027 if I’m correct. That’s more expensive than NVDA.


AVGO Results Good. 55-60% AI Growth in 2025, Same in 26. Consensus Is ~10% Too Low, Stock Expensive

United States

Marvell Technology, Inc. develops and produces semiconductors and related technology. The Company offers security and networking platform, secure data processing, networking, and storage solutions. Marvell Technology serves customers worldwide.

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Marvell Technology (MRVL US)

Marvell Expects Hyper-Growth in Data Center Custom Chips (ASIC) With a Higher Earnings Risk

Marvell's AI event highlights Data Center/Accelerators roadmap with potential 50% CAGR to 2028, but faces challenges in margins and scalability...

Nicolas Baratte

Semiconductor Shopping Season Is Now

AMD and Qualcomm make strategic acquisitions in chip design and AI technology, highlighting their focus on the future of AI and competition with...

Nicolas Baratte

Marvell Technology: How Is The Management Leveraging AI & Data Center Market Growth?

Marvell Technology Inc.'s first-quarter fiscal 2026 results reveal a mixed bag of impressive growth, strategic maneuvers, and cautious optimism...

Baptista Research

AVGO Results Good. 55-60% AI Growth in 2025, Same in 26. Consensus Is ~10% Too Low, Stock Expensive

AI revenue projected to reach $19bn in 2025, $30bn in 2026. Consensus estimates for Broadcom revenues are too low, but AVGO is more expensive than...

Nicolas Baratte

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Marvell Technology Sets Sights on 20% Market Share in Data Center Silicon; Is It Achievable?

Marvell Technology Inc.'s second quarter of fiscal year 2026 demonstrated notable progress, with record revenue of $2.006 billion—an increase of...

Baptista Research

Marvell Expects Hyper-Growth in Data Center Custom Chips (ASIC) With a Higher Earnings Risk

​Marvell's AI event highlights Data Center/Accelerators roadmap with potential 50% CAGR to 2028, but faces challenges in margins and scalability...

Nicolas Baratte

Semiconductor Shopping Season Is Now

​AMD and Qualcomm make strategic acquisitions in chip design and AI technology, highlighting their focus on the future of AI and competition with...

Nicolas Baratte

Marvell Technology: How Is The Management Leveraging AI & Data Center Market Growth?

Marvell Technology Inc.'s first-quarter fiscal 2026 results reveal a mixed bag of impressive growth, strategic maneuvers, and cautious optimism...

Baptista Research

AVGO Results Good. 55-60% AI Growth in 2025, Same in 26. Consensus Is ~10% Too Low, Stock Expensive

​AI revenue projected to reach $19bn in 2025, $30bn in 2026. Consensus estimates for Broadcom revenues are too low, but AVGO is more expensive than...

Nicolas Baratte

Marvell's AI event highlights Data Center/Accelerators roadmap with potential 50% CAGR to 2028, but faces challenges in margins and scalability...

AMD and Qualcomm make strategic acquisitions in chip design and AI technology, highlighting their focus on the future of AI and competition with...

AI revenue projected to reach $19bn in 2025, $30bn in 2026. Consensus estimates for Broadcom revenues are too low, but AVGO is more expensive than...