Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Market Vectors Vietnam ETF / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this Postcard Edition, we detour and go international—to the streets, shops, and supermarkets of Vietnam. Choosing Vietnam as a country to explore and begin building our Asian Coverage.</li>
<li>Despite strong manufacturing fundamentals, capital markets remain narrow, with limited institutional participation and underrepresentation of export-led sectors.</li>
<li>Vietnam is on our watchlist for its evolving opportunity set, and we will continue tracking IPO activity, MSCI inclusion efforts, and policy reforms.</li>
</ul>


In this Postcard Edition, we detour and go international—to the streets, shops, and supermarkets of Vietnam. Choosing Vietnam as a country to explore and begin building our Asian Coverage.
Despite strong manufacturing fundamentals, capital markets remain narrow, with limited institutional participation and underrepresentation of export-led sectors.
Vietnam is on our watchlist for its evolving opportunity set, and we will continue tracking IPO activity, MSCI inclusion efforts, and policy reforms.


Postcard from Hanoi | Xin Chào Việt Nam

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Guotai Junan International / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13438:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)</a>/GJTAI announced a preconditional scheme offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-haitong-securities-co-ltd-class-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Haitong Securities (2611 HK)</a> at HK$3.00, a 44.2% premium to the last close. The offer price is final. </li>
<li>HKEx privatisations, which require regulatory approvals, have recently been shunned. However, the precondition related to NDRC and Shanghai SASAC regulatory approvals is low risk. </li>
<li>While the offer is below the six-month high, it is attractive compared to peer and precedent transaction multiples. Barring a significant re-rating of peers, this should get done. </li>
</ul>



Guotai Junan International (1788 HK)/GJTAI announced a preconditional scheme offer from Guotai Haitong Securities (2611 HK) at HK$3.00, a 44.2% premium to the last close. The offer price is final. 
HKEx privatisations, which require regulatory approvals, have recently been shunned. However, the precondition related to NDRC and Shanghai SASAC regulatory approvals is low risk. 
While the offer is below the six-month high, it is attractive compared to peer and precedent transaction multiples. Barring a significant re-rating of peers, this should get done. 


Guotai Junan International (1788 HK): Precon Privatisation by Guotai Haitong Securities at HK$3.00

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16415:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice (64 HK)</a>/GNH has disclosed a scheme offer from Mr Hung Hon Man (founder and Chairman) at HK$4.00 (scheme consideration of HK$2.00 + special dividend of HK$2.00).</li>
<li>While the offer represents a five-year high, it is light, implying a P/B multiple at a discount to precedent transactions and peer multiples. </li>
<li>However, the scheme vote is low-risk, as no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. Unless an activist(s) takes an interest by building a blocking stake, this is a done deal.</li>
</ul>



Get Nice (64 HK)/GNH has disclosed a scheme offer from Mr Hung Hon Man (founder and Chairman) at HK$4.00 (scheme consideration of HK$2.00 + special dividend of HK$2.00).
While the offer represents a five-year high, it is light, implying a P/B multiple at a discount to precedent transactions and peer multiples. 
However, the scheme vote is low-risk, as no disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. Unless an activist(s) takes an interest by building a blocking stake, this is a done deal.


Get Nice Holdings (64 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Offer Is Light

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/get-nice-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16415:1" rel="noopener">Get Nice (64 HK)</a>/GNH is in a trading halt “<em>pending the release of an announcement in relation to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.</em>”</li>
<li>Mr Hung (Chairman) is likely to reload his 2020 offer. The key difference is that he will seek to privatise GNH at this time.</li>
<li>I use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests an offer of HK$4.74 to HK$7.09 per share, representing a 39.5% to 109% premium to the last close.</li>
</ul>



Get Nice (64 HK)/GNH is in a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement in relation to the Hong Kong Code on Takeovers and Mergers.”
Mr Hung (Chairman) is likely to reload his 2020 offer. The key difference is that he will seek to privatise GNH at this time.
I use several methods to triangulate the likely offer price, which suggests an offer of HK$4.74 to HK$7.09 per share, representing a 39.5% to 109% premium to the last close.


Get Nice Holdings (64 HK): Chairman to Take It Private?

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>Where so many of us are focused on the impact of China slowdown on its banks, it is worth highlighting the risks to Hong Kong’s banks. But what we are focused on here is their domestic lending, not the stuff booked locally but for use in China. For most, the perception is that Hong Kong banks have little risk due to a strong emphasis on mortgage lending, but we are not convinced this is holding up, and we believe it will worsen.  Of course, the new marginally higher interest costs in Hong Kong…</p>

Where so many of us are focused on the impact of China slowdown on its banks, it is worth highlighting the risks to Hong Kong’s banks. But what we are focused on here is their domestic lending, not the stuff booked locally but for use in China. For most, the perception is that Hong Kong banks have little risk due to a strong emphasis on mortgage lending, but we are not convinced this is holding up, and we believe it will worsen.  Of course, the new marginally higher interest costs in Hong Kong…

Domestic NPLs in Hong Kong Can Surprise – Not Just Those in Neighboring China

Hong Kong

Mason Group is a Hong Kong-based company primarily engaged in financial activities, including securities investment, financing services, wealth and asset management, and financial brokerage. The company also operates in medical consultation and laboratory services, retail of mother-infant-child products, and manufacturing of infant formula and nutritional products. Mason Group was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

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Mason Group (273 HK)

Postcard from Hanoi | Xin Chào Việt Nam

Exploring Vietnam's potential for growth and investment opportunities, despite challenges in capital markets and institutional participation....

Pranav Bhavsar

Guotai Junan International (1788 HK): Precon Privatisation by Guotai Haitong Securities at HK$3.00

While the offer is below the six-month high, it is attractive compared to peer and precedent transaction multiples. Barring a significant re-rating...

Arun George

Get Nice Holdings (64 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Offer Is Light

While the offer represents a five-year high, it is light, implying a P/B multiple at a discount to precedent transactions and peer multiples....

Arun George

Get Nice Holdings (64 HK): Chairman to Take It Private?

Mr Hung (Chairman) is likely seeking to privatise GNH. My analysis suggests an offer of HK$4.74 to HK$7.09 per share, representing a 40% to 109%...

Arun George

Domestic NPLs in Hong Kong Can Surprise – Not Just Those in Neighboring China

Where so many of us are focused on the impact of China slowdown on its banks, it is worth highlighting the risks to Hong Kong’s banks. But what we...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Postcard from Hanoi | Xin Chào Việt Nam

​Exploring Vietnam's potential for growth and investment opportunities, despite challenges in capital markets and institutional participation....

Pranav Bhavsar

Guotai Junan International (1788 HK): Precon Privatisation by Guotai Haitong Securities at HK$3.00

While the offer is below the six-month high, it is attractive compared to peer and precedent transaction multiples. Barring a significant re-rating...

Arun George

Get Nice Holdings (64 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Offer Is Light

While the offer represents a five-year high, it is light, implying a P/B multiple at a discount to precedent transactions and peer multiples....

Arun George

Get Nice Holdings (64 HK): Chairman to Take It Private?

Mr Hung (Chairman) is likely seeking to privatise GNH. My analysis suggests an offer of HK$4.74 to HK$7.09 per share, representing a 40% to 109%...

Arun George

Domestic NPLs in Hong Kong Can Surprise – Not Just Those in Neighboring China

Where so many of us are focused on the impact of China slowdown on its banks, it is worth highlighting the risks to Hong Kong’s banks. But what we...

Daniel Tabbush

Exploring Vietnam's potential for growth and investment opportunities, despite challenges in capital markets and institutional participation....