Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Retail stocks perform well again as China relaxes restrictions on domestic travel</li>
<li>However, it could take a couple of years for international travel to return to previous levels</li>
<li>We believe that most of the catalysts for our bullish stance on this macro call have now played out</li>
</ul>


Retail stocks perform well again as China relaxes restrictions on domestic travel
However, it could take a couple of years for international travel to return to previous levels
We believe that most of the catalysts for our bullish stance on this macro call have now played out


Japan Weekly | Chinese Tourists Stay Close to Home

<ul>
<li>After a bullish week for Japanese equities last week, this week was a bit blah. The average return for our watchlist was -0.3%, with 57 of 120 registering a gain</li>
<li>Over the past one month, the yen has gained 10-big figures against the dollar and the NKY has gained 3%</li>
<li>Japanese inflation at 40-year high; Kishida meets Xi; Visitors to Japan tops 500k in October; &amp; corporate tax may be hiked to fund defense spending</li>
</ul>


After a bullish week for Japanese equities last week, this week was a bit blah. The average return for our watchlist was -0.3%, with 57 of 120 registering a gain
Over the past one month, the yen has gained 10-big figures against the dollar and the NKY has gained 3%
Japanese inflation at 40-year high; Kishida meets Xi; Visitors to Japan tops 500k in October; &amp; corporate tax may be hiked to fund defense spending


<ul>
<li>
 Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US to keep abreast!
</li>
<li>OVERNIGHT:  Partial reversal - Sell BETA/Buy Momentum; Contrasting views from the Fed; Amazon cuts 10,000; FedEx furloughs workers - probably the doves it; Positive China - finally the bottom in?</li>
<li>JAPAN: Flat open vs Cash on the NKY; Buybacks continues - now the megabanks get involved; Not a heavy news day but watch out for Matsumotokio(3088) -strong 2Qs </li>
</ul>



 Good Morning Japan:  We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in Japan. FOLLOW US to keep abreast!

OVERNIGHT:  Partial reversal - Sell BETA/Buy Momentum; Contrasting views from the Fed; Amazon cuts 10,000; FedEx furloughs workers - probably the doves it; Positive China - finally the bottom in?
JAPAN: Flat open vs Cash on the NKY; Buybacks continues - now the megabanks get involved; Not a heavy news day but watch out for Matsumotokio(3088) -strong 2Qs 


Good Morning Japan | The Hawk Vs The Dove..the Dove Has It !

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.</li>
<li>Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).</li>
<li>There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.</li>
</ul>


Many major indexes have broken below critical supports, including MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), EURO STOXX 50, STOXX Europe 600, and the DAX.
Odds suggest a bearish downside continuation, and a bearish outlook is appropriate as long as the YTD downtrend remains intact on the ACWI-US, MSCI ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US).
There is bounce potential given these broad global indexes are testing their respective downtrend channel supports, but the fact remains that they are in downtrends, a major problem longer-term.


MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei was down -3.4% over the past week (-4.3% YTD); the yen was flat at ¥142/$ (-24.1% YTD)</li>
<li>Shares of travel and tourism related companies advanced on hopes for a rebound in inbound tourism as Japan aims to ease travel restrictions in October</li>
<li>Shares of IHI slumped 9% in the week. We are interested in the energy segment that is geared to nuclear re-starts and longer-term, ammonia. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei was down -3.4% over the past week (-4.3% YTD); the yen was flat at ¥142/$ (-24.1% YTD)
Shares of travel and tourism related companies advanced on hopes for a rebound in inbound tourism as Japan aims to ease travel restrictions in October
Shares of IHI slumped 9% in the week. We are interested in the energy segment that is geared to nuclear re-starts and longer-term, ammonia. 


Japan

MatsukiyoCocokara & Co. operates drug store chains. The Company retails medicines, cosmetics, health foods, beauty care products, and other products. MatsukiyoCocokara & also operates supermarkets and home centers.

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MatsukiyoCocokara (3088 JP)

Japan Weekly | Chinese Tourists Stay Close to Home

The Japan Weekly discusses those stocks that have performed well (or not) over the past week. This time, we look at the strong performance of...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Weekly | Asics, Matsukiyo, Nexon

We highlight the stocks in our Universe that have had a good or bad week. Japanese stocks paused this week after a strong performance a week ago.

Mark Chadwick

Good Morning Japan | The Hawk Vs The Dove..the Dove Has It !

Good Morning Japan: We strive to provide the very best breaking macro, stock and thematic overnight news that will impact your trading day in...

Mark Chadwick

MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Downtrend Channel Supports -- Bounce Potential

Bounce potential given $ACWX $EFA testing downtrend channel supports, but it would likely be a short-term trading opportunity due to the fact that...

Vermilion Research

Japan Weekly | JR East, Matsukiyo, IHI

Stocks in Japan are benefiting from continued expectations for a loosening of inbound tourist restrictions. Meanwhile, the drop in IHI could be an...

Mark Chadwick

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