Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Pop Mart (9992 HK)'s share price is down 33% from its peak levels in late August 2025. Going forward, we expect further downside risk on Pop Mart.</li>
<li>We highlight the growing concerns about the declining resale values of Labubu. After reaching their peak prices in this summer, the resale prices of Labubu dolls have continued to drop.</li>
<li>Its share price declining below the critical HK$250 support on big volumes suggest negative technicals on this stock. </li>
</ul>


Pop Mart (9992 HK)'s share price is down 33% from its peak levels in late August 2025. Going forward, we expect further downside risk on Pop Mart.
We highlight the growing concerns about the declining resale values of Labubu. After reaching their peak prices in this summer, the resale prices of Labubu dolls have continued to drop.
Its share price declining below the critical HK$250 support on big volumes suggest negative technicals on this stock. 


Pop Mart International: Increasing Concerns About Resale Price Declines

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>Bloks Group shares returned ~47% for IPO investors as of today, trailing the HSI’s 30% gain. The stock peaked at HK$190+ and fell ~55% over the following four months.</li>
<li>Shares saw pressure after lockup restrictions expired in July. Until this month, the lockup provision had prevented the majority shareholder and other early investors from selling their shares. </li>
<li>The company’s revenue grew ~28% YoY in the first half of 2025, raising potential concerns of continued slowdown in sales of assembly character toys. Expect stock underperformance to continue.</li>
</ul>


Bloks Group shares returned ~47% for IPO investors as of today, trailing the HSI’s 30% gain. The stock peaked at HK$190+ and fell ~55% over the following four months.
Shares saw pressure after lockup restrictions expired in July. Until this month, the lockup provision had prevented the majority shareholder and other early investors from selling their shares. 
The company’s revenue grew ~28% YoY in the first half of 2025, raising potential concerns of continued slowdown in sales of assembly character toys. Expect stock underperformance to continue.


Bloks Group (0325.HK): Stock Premium Is Not Justified, Growth Has Slowed, ~30% Downside

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>
Context:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart (9992 HK)</a> begins trading monthly options on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX) on Monday, 13 October 2025, marking its debut in the derivatives market.</li>
<li>
This Insight examines expected implied volatility, referencing both realized volatility trends and peer valuations for context. </li>
<li>
Why Read: Gain early insight into Pop Mart’s option launch, including option specifications and how implied volatility could set the tone for first-day trading.</li>
</ul>



Context:Pop Mart (9992 HK) begins trading monthly options on the Hong Kong Exchange (HKEX) on Monday, 13 October 2025, marking its debut in the derivatives market.

This Insight examines expected implied volatility, referencing both realized volatility trends and peer valuations for context. 

Why Read: Gain early insight into Pop Mart’s option launch, including option specifications and how implied volatility could set the tone for first-day trading.


Pop Mart (9992 HK): New Options Listing Poised for a Volatile Start

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss Pop Mart (9992 HK)'s valuation using Peter Lynch's PEGY ratio.</li>
<li>If Pop Mart misses current consensus estimates in 2026 and 2027 by 5%, this would result in PEGY ratio of 1.4x in 2026 which would make current valuations unattractive.</li>
<li>WE EXPECT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF POP MART'S VALUATION DECLINING BY 50% TO ABOUT US$25 BILLION, RATHER THAN INCREASING BY 50% TO $75 BILLION FROM CURRENT LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 YEARS.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss Pop Mart (9992 HK)'s valuation using Peter Lynch's PEGY ratio.
If Pop Mart misses current consensus estimates in 2026 and 2027 by 5%, this would result in PEGY ratio of 1.4x in 2026 which would make current valuations unattractive.
WE EXPECT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF POP MART'S VALUATION DECLINING BY 50% TO ABOUT US$25 BILLION, RATHER THAN INCREASING BY 50% TO $75 BILLION FROM CURRENT LEVELS OVER THE NEXT 1-2 YEARS.


Pop Mart International - Valuation Using Peter Lynch's PEGY Ratio

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Bloks Group, a founder-led toy maker and owner of trusted brand “Blokees”, will price its IPO this week. Shares are set to begin trading on January 10, 2025.</li>
<li>I would expect strong first trading-day return as HK public offering was already 5,000+ times oversubscribed at high end of marketed price range.</li>
<li>I believe investors are rationally optimistic about the company. Bloks Group IPO attracted a surge of retail investors, and the stock may skyrocket above IPO price on first trading-day.</li>
</ul>


Bloks Group, a founder-led toy maker and owner of trusted brand “Blokees”, will price its IPO this week. Shares are set to begin trading on January 10, 2025.
I would expect strong first trading-day return as HK public offering was already 5,000+ times oversubscribed at high end of marketed price range.
I believe investors are rationally optimistic about the company. Bloks Group IPO attracted a surge of retail investors, and the stock may skyrocket above IPO price on first trading-day.


Bloks Group Likely To Price IPO at High End of Range: What To Expect From First Trading-Day?

United States

Mattel, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets a broad variety of children's toy products on a worldwide basis.  The Company sells its products to retailers and directly to consumers.  Mattel's products include branded fashion dolls, infant and preschool products, toy cars, and electrical vehicles, among others.

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Mattel Inc (MAT US)

Pop Mart International: Increasing Concerns About Resale Price Declines

Pop Mart (9992 HK)'s share price is down 33% from its peak levels in late August 2025. Going forward, we expect further downside risk on Pop Mart.

Douglas Kim

Bloks Group (0325.HK): Stock Premium Is Not Justified, Growth Has Slowed, ~30% Downside

Bloks Group shares significantly underperformed over the last four months as IPO lockup expired and growth slowed in 2025. However, the stock...

Andrei Zakharov

Pop Mart (9992 HK): New Options Listing Poised for a Volatile Start

Pop Mart debuts monthly options on HKEX, with insights on implied volatility expected to open at a premium amid elevated market uncertainty.

Gaudenz Schneider

Pop Mart International - Valuation Using Peter Lynch's PEGY Ratio

WE EXPECT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF POP MART'S VALUATION DECLINING BY 50% TO ABOUT US$25 BILLION, RATHER THAN INCREASING BY 50% TO $75 BILLION FROM...

Douglas Kim

Bloks Group Likely To Price IPO at High End of Range: What To Expect From First Trading-Day?

Bloks Group will go public this week. In my insight, I discuss expectations from first trading-day and how far Bloks Group stock may go up in a...

Andrei Zakharov

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pop Mart International: Increasing Concerns About Resale Price Declines

Pop Mart (9992 HK)'s share price is down 33% from its peak levels in late August 2025. Going forward, we expect further downside risk on Pop Mart.

Douglas Kim

Bloks Group (0325.HK): Stock Premium Is Not Justified, Growth Has Slowed, ~30% Downside

​Bloks Group shares significantly underperformed over the last four months as IPO lockup expired and growth slowed in 2025. However, the stock...

Andrei Zakharov

Pop Mart (9992 HK): New Options Listing Poised for a Volatile Start

​Pop Mart debuts monthly options on HKEX, with insights on implied volatility expected to open at a premium amid elevated market uncertainty.

Gaudenz Schneider

Pop Mart International - Valuation Using Peter Lynch's PEGY Ratio

WE EXPECT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF POP MART'S VALUATION DECLINING BY 50% TO ABOUT US$25 BILLION, RATHER THAN INCREASING BY 50% TO $75 BILLION FROM...

Douglas Kim

Bloks Group Likely To Price IPO at High End of Range: What To Expect From First Trading-Day?

Bloks Group will go public this week. In my insight, I discuss expectations from first trading-day and how far Bloks Group stock may go up in a...

Andrei Zakharov

Bloks Group shares significantly underperformed over the last four months as IPO lockup expired and growth slowed in 2025. However, the stock...

Pop Mart debuts monthly options on HKEX, with insights on implied volatility expected to open at a premium amid elevated market uncertainty.