Asia Economic Research, Centennial Asia Advisors

Asees Bajaj

Asia Economic Research

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Japan switched on a radar station on Yonaguni island in the East China Sea on 28 Mar, affording itself a permanent intelligence post close to Taiwan and a group of disputed islands.</li>
<li>Japan is also planning to strengthen its military presence in the East China Sea by increasing its Self-Defense Force to almost 10,000 personnel and installing missile batteries that will enable Japan to employ a defensive curtain along the disputed islands.</li>
</ul>Implications: Another sign of opposition to Chinese…


Japan switched on a radar station on Yonaguni island in the East China Sea on 28 Mar, affording itself a permanent intelligence post close to Taiwan and a group of disputed islands.
Japan is also planning to strengthen its military presence in the East China Sea by increasing its Self-Defense Force to almost 10,000 personnel and installing missile batteries that will enable Japan to employ a defensive curtain along the disputed islands.
Implications: Another sign of opposition to Chinese…

Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Jason Tan

Economist

Three negatives for Japan’s recovery<ul>
<li>First, the Yen’s sharp rebound is likely to hurt competitiveness.</li>
<li>Second, exports remain under pressure - falling 4% y/y in Feb 16. While this was better than the 12.9% contraction in January, the data was flattered by distortions caused by the timing of the Lunar New Year.</li>
<li>Third, the initial soundings for wage increases this spring do not look promising, with the large companies sharply reducing the quantum of wage rises compared to last year - a discouraging…</li>
</ul>

Three negatives for Japan’s recovery
First, the Yen’s sharp rebound is likely to hurt competitiveness.
Second, exports remain under pressure - falling 4% y/y in Feb 16. While this was better than the 12.9% contraction in January, the data was flattered by distortions caused by the timing of the Lunar New Year.
Third, the initial soundings for wage increases this spring do not look promising, with the large companies sharply reducing the quantum of wage rises compared to last year - a discouraging…


Japan: Economy Languishing, Monetary Policy Questioned

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 <div>Asia FX action</div>To view click on this link:  <a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp" target="_blank">http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp</a> 5:15 min.We run through trade points in Asia FX.<div>
INR - Still short USD to 65.90, uptick is viewed as corrective and not a bad place to add to USD short.</div><div>
KRW - Our USD 1,175 short hit our trailing limit at 1,167 for a minor gain. We maintain our USD bearish call to 1,140 for those still holding the USD short. At 1,140-42 would be covering ST short and probing for a USD buy…</div>

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 Asia FX actionTo view click on this link:  http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp 5:15 min.We run through trade points in Asia FX.
INR - Still short USD to 65.90, uptick is viewed as corrective and not a bad place to add to USD short.
KRW - Our USD 1,175 short hit our trailing limit at 1,167 for a minor gain. We maintain our USD bearish call to 1,140 for those still holding the USD short. At 1,140-42 would be covering ST short and probing for a USD buy…

<ul>
<li>
Slowing economy due to declining consumer confidence: GDP contracted 0.8% y/y in 4Q15, down from a 1.7% y/y expansion in 3Q15. The contraction stems largely from a slump in domestic demand, which is likely to fall further as consumer confidence declined to 40.1 in Feb 16, from 42.5 in Jan 16. </li>
<li>
Exports face headwinds: Exports fell 12.9% y/y in Jan 16, down from a 8.0% y/y fall in Dec 15, as China’s slowdown in particular, hurt exports. Imports contracted 18.0% y/y in Jan 16, unchanged from Dec 15…</li>
</ul>



Slowing economy due to declining consumer confidence: GDP contracted 0.8% y/y in 4Q15, down from a 1.7% y/y expansion in 3Q15. The contraction stems largely from a slump in domestic demand, which is likely to fall further as consumer confidence declined to 40.1 in Feb 16, from 42.5 in Jan 16. 

Exports face headwinds: Exports fell 12.9% y/y in Jan 16, down from a 8.0% y/y fall in Dec 15, as China’s slowdown in particular, hurt exports. Imports contracted 18.0% y/y in Jan 16, unchanged from Dec 15…


<ul>
<li>
GDP contracted 4% y/y in 4Q15, after rising 1.3% y/y in 3Q15. Investment growth was insufficient to offset weak consumer spending and trade. Overall GDP expanded 0.4% in 2015, a slight recovery from the 0% expansion in 2014.</li>
<li>
Industrial activity fell 6% m/m in Dec 15, a slight improvement from the 0.9% y/y fall in Nov 15. Index for services ticked up 0.1% y/y in Dec 15, down from the 1.5% y/y increase in Nov 15. Machinery orders fell 4.2% m/m in Dec 15, up from a decline of 14.4% m/m increase in…</li>
</ul>



GDP contracted 4% y/y in 4Q15, after rising 1.3% y/y in 3Q15. Investment growth was insufficient to offset weak consumer spending and trade. Overall GDP expanded 0.4% in 2015, a slight recovery from the 0% expansion in 2014.

Industrial activity fell 6% m/m in Dec 15, a slight improvement from the 0.9% y/y fall in Nov 15. Index for services ticked up 0.1% y/y in Dec 15, down from the 1.5% y/y increase in Nov 15. Machinery orders fell 4.2% m/m in Dec 15, up from a decline of 14.4% m/m increase in…


Japan: Economy Struggling to Find Solid Ground

Japan

MAXIS JPX-Nikkei Index 400 ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in Japan. The objective of the fund is to provide investment resulets that corresponded to the performance of the JPX Nikkei Index 400.

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Maxis Jpx Nikkei Index 400 (1593 JP)

Tensions in the East China Sea

Japan switched on a radar station on Yonaguni island in the East China Sea on 28 Mar, affording itself a permanent intelligence post close to...

Asees Bajaj

Japan: Economy Languishing, Monetary Policy Questioned

Three negatives for Japan’s recovery First, the Yen’s sharp rebound is likely to hurt competitiveness. Second, exports remain under pressure -...

Jason Tan

Asia FX Action Points

Chartonics webcast Tuesday 22 March 2016 Asia FX actionTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/m9gF64uDp 5:15 min.We run through...

Thomas Schroeder

Japan: Paucity of Good News

Slowing economy due to declining consumer confidence: GDP contracted 0.8% y/y in 4Q15, down from a 1.7% y/y expansion in 3Q15. The contraction...

Jason Tan

Japan: Economy Struggling to Find Solid Ground

GDP contracted 4% y/y in 4Q15, after rising 1.3% y/y in 3Q15. Investment growth was insufficient to offset weak consumer spending and trade....

Jason Tan

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