Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.</li>
<li>FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. </li>
<li>We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The following is an in-depth review of the Japanese retail sector in 2021-22 and is designed to provide a complete overview for any investor in Japanese retail/consumer markets.
FY2021-22 proved a rebound year for retailers at the sector level. But on a company by company basis, there has been radical divergence between the best and the rest. 
We look at the reasons for this divergence and the implications for Japanese retail and consumer firms in the years ahead.


Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

<p>All leading supermarkets saw sales improve in FY2020 as shoppers stayed away from competing formats and profits also surged.</p><p>However, while the changes confirmed stability among the largest companies and a handful of medium-sized chains, the sudden surge in profits among low-margin chains could be short-lived once shoppers become more mobile again and return to other options for their food needs.</p><p>The gap between the best and rest will widen, spurring consolidation as the leaders grab more market share in new territories.</p>

All leading supermarkets saw sales improve in FY2020 as shoppers stayed away from competing formats and profits also surged.However, while the changes confirmed stability among the largest companies and a handful of medium-sized chains, the sudden surge in profits among low-margin chains could be short-lived once shoppers become more mobile again and return to other options for their food needs.The gap between the best and rest will widen, spurring consolidation as the leaders grab more market share in new territories.

Leading Supermarkets Have a Great Year but Gap Widens Between Best and Rest

<p>At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.</p>
<p>Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.</p>
<p>Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.</p>
<p>The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:</p>
<ul>
<li>An overview of consumer demand and retail performance</li>
<li>Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.</li>
<li>Rankings:
<ul>
<li>Market share and size by sector/format</li>
<li>By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion</li>
<li>By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<p>As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/the-japan-retail-review-winners-and-losers-in-japanese-retailing-part-i" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here</a>.</p>

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of financial results for FY2019-20.
Even with the crisis, results were generally better than for FY2018 – although there are big variations by sector.
Those differences are more or less what we’ve come to expect, with traditional formats like department stores continuing to struggle, while those formats that have adopted modern management are doing well.
The following is an in-depth review of Japan's retail sector, providing:

An overview of consumer demand and retail performance
Format by format reviews showing growth and profit performance across all the main formats: convenience stores, supermarkets, GMS, consumer electronics, drugstores, homecentres, department stores, apparel, home and other specialty  formats.
Rankings:

Market share and size by sector/format
By sales for all retailers with sales over ¥250 billion
By gross and operating margins, split by format and category.



As this is an in-depth insight, the review is split into two parts to make it easier to read.  This is Part II which provides snapshot reviews of each format/sector. Part I, which provides a quick overview of all retailing, can be read here.

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/124/934/original/2020-03-27_06-28-40.png?1585258181" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="124934"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>THURSDAY 26th MARCH</strong> - Yesterday saw six companies reporting results, of which only two -<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/optoelectronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9374:1" rel="noopener">Optoelectronics (6664 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fukushima-printing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3931:1" rel="noopener">Fukushima Printing (7870 JP)</a> - has positive scores. Seventeen companies revised their forecasts, and one made initial forecasts. In terms of our scoring system, the ratio of positive to negative 'scores' was 5:11, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jxtg-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1" rel="noopener">JXTG (5020 JP) </a>being the largest negative-scoring company and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maxvalu-nishinihon-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13743:1" rel="noopener">Maxvalu Nishinihon (8287 JP)</a> being unchanged. Of the six companies announcing results, only two had positive outcomes.</p><div class="content-caption"><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/124/936/original/File%202020-03-27%200%2015%2036.jpeg?1585258841" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="124936"></figure></div><div class="content-caption">Source • NHK</div><p><strong>GOOD NEWS • BAD NEWS </strong>- The good news is that the increase in disclosed cases of Covid-19 outside Tokyo has not increased significantly; Tokyo, however, has seen an alarming rise. Forty-seven new cases were confirmed yesterday, taking the total in the metropolis to 259. Tokyo will implement a 'stay-at-home-policy' this weekend. Surrounding prefectures have encouraged their residents not to travel into the city over the weekend. Amusement parks that had reopened last weekend will now close their doors.</p><p><strong>ODD NEWS</strong> - In other 'news', the Sapporo Board of Education is debating whether to allow students to wear face masks that are not white. In the past, many schools have mandated that children can only have black hair, forcing some children whose hair is naturally lighter to dye their hair black to conform to the 'norm'.  </p>

Source • Japan AnalyticsTHURSDAY 26th MARCH - Yesterday saw six companies reporting results, of which only two -Optoelectronics (6664 JP) and Fukushima Printing (7870 JP) - has positive scores. Seventeen companies revised their forecasts, and one made initial forecasts. In terms of our scoring system, the ratio of positive to negative 'scores' was 5:11, with JXTG (5020 JP) being the largest negative-scoring company and Maxvalu Nishinihon (8287 JP) being unchanged. Of the six companies announcing results, only two had positive outcomes.Source • NHKGOOD NEWS • BAD NEWS - The good news is that the increase in disclosed cases of Covid-19 outside Tokyo has not increased significantly; Tokyo, however, has seen an alarming rise. Forty-seven new cases were confirmed yesterday, taking the total in the metropolis to 259. Tokyo will implement a 'stay-at-home-policy' this weekend. Surrounding prefectures have encouraged their residents not to travel into the city over the weekend. Amusement parks that had reopened last weekend will now close their doors.ODD NEWS - In other 'news', the Sapporo Board of Education is debating whether to allow students to wear face masks that are not white. In the past, many schools have mandated that children can only have black hair, forcing some children whose hair is naturally lighter to dye their hair black to conform to the 'norm'.  

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Alert - 26th March

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trial-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36821:1" rel="noopener">Trial Holdings (5882 JP)</a> (TH) is now looking to raise around US$234m in its Japan IPO, after having canceled its prior listing attempt last year.</li>
<li>TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.</li>
<li>We have looked at the past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the updates from its recent filings.</li>
</ul>



Trial Holdings (5882 JP) (TH) is now looking to raise around US$234m in its Japan IPO, after having canceled its prior listing attempt last year.
TH operates a network of retail stores that offer one-stop shopping under its everyday low price model, across a variety of daily necessities, food items and other products.
We have looked at the past performance in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about the updates from its recent filings.


Trial Holdings Pre-IPO - Refiling Updates - Margin Uptick, More Golf Courses

Japan

MAXVALU NISHINIHON CO., LTD. is a food supermarket chain operator which is mainly located in Western part of Hyogo.  The Company mainly sells daily foods including fresh seafood, processed and frozen foods.

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Maxvalu Nishinihon (8287 JP)

Japanese Retailing 2021-22: What's Really Going on and What's Next?

There is increasing divergence between the winners and losers in Japanese retailing and the following in-depth review looks at performance in the...

Michael Causton

Leading Supermarkets Have a Great Year but Gap Widens Between Best and Rest

Japanese supermarkets had a great year in 2020 thanks to Covid. However, the gap in performance is widening and more consolidation can be expected.

Michael Causton

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

At least until the Covid-19 crisis hit Japan in January, the majority of retailers were gearing up to announce yet another really good year of...

Michael Causton

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Revisions & Results Alert - 26th March

THURSDAY 26th MARCH - Yesterday saw six companies reporting results, of which only two -Optoelectronics (6664 JP) and Fukushima Printing (7870 JP)...

Campbell Gunn

Trial Holdings Pre-IPO - Refiling Updates - Margin Uptick, More Golf Courses

Trial Holdings (5882 JP) (TH) is now looking to raise around US$234m in its Japan IPO, after having canceled its prior listing attempt last year.

Sumeet Singh

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