ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

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<p><em><strong>Corrigenda: There is an error in this Insight. Please note the correction.</strong></em></p>
<p><em><strong>Correction: The Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bjbr-positive-fundamental-momentum-at-a-decent-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44897" rel="noopener">BJBR: Positive Fundamental Momentum at a Decent Valuation</a> was improperly attributed to Thomas Monaco. It was published by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/paul-hollingworth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2554" rel="noopener">Paul Hollingworth</a>.</strong></em></p>
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<p>The week that was in <a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.</p>
<p>We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  </p>
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<p><strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/smartkarma-corporate-webinar-indo-banks-the-worst-is-over" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44882" rel="noopener">Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Indo Banks: The Worst Is Over</a></strong>-<strong> 10th November at 4 pm.</strong></p>
<p>For our next Corporate Webinar, we welcome <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-mandiri-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:441:1" rel="noopener">Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)</a>'s Group Head of Investor Relations, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/yohan-setio" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Yohan Setio</a>, who will share some company updates and sit down for a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a>.</p>
<h2>Indonesia's Recovery and the Next Digital Darling</h2>
<p>This week below the fold we look at Indonesia's recent economic numbers which saw the country slide into recession, its first since the Asian Crisis but find it encouraging that the economy is moving onto a recovery track. We see selective banks and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46:1" rel="noopener">Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> as core ways to play this recovery. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> is SoutEast Asia's largest Market Cap stock, and there are very few if any alternatives to get exposure to the region's e-commerce boom, certainly in the listed universe. One potential future candidate is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ),</a> which is the major shareholder of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ)</a> but it also has stakes in Bukalapak and Dana, the number three digital payments player in Indonesia and a JV with Ant Financial.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> has announced that it will seek approval for a stock split in December but this may not be the end of the story. Any restructuring which brings all of its digital assets under one roof and improves liquidity would certainly help the company attract more institutional investors and secure a higher valuation. </p>
<h3>Macro Insights</h3>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-strategy-2021-part-2-top-10-stock-picks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40851" rel="noopener">Thai Strategy 2021 (Part 2): Top 10 Stock Picks,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> lays out his top stock picks in Thailand for next year.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-strategy-2021-part-3-sector-outlooks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:40864" rel="noopener">Thai Strategy 2021 (Part 3): Sector Outlooks,</a> our Thai guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766" rel="noopener">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> provides us with his sector strategy in Thailand for the coming year. </p>
<h3>Equity Bottom Up</h3>
<p>In an Indonesian Insight,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/astra-international-asii-ij-an-auto-recovery-story-with-a-golden-digital-twist" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Astra International (ASII IJ) - An Auto-Recovery Story with a Golden Digital Twist</a>, CrossASEAN Insight provider<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Angus Mackintosh</a> returns to look at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/astra-international-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Astra International (ASII IJ)</a> after a conversation with management. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pt-surya-citra-media-tbk-scma-ij-let-the-games-begin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44914" rel="noopener">PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - Let the Games Begin,</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937" rel="noopener">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits one of Indonesia's leading media companies, which has an increasingly digital twist.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/aem-holdings-optimistic-on-fy21-fair-value-remains-at-5-sgd-41-upside" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44915" rel="noopener">AEM Holdings: Optimistic on FY21; Fair Value Remains at 5 SGD (41% Upside),</a> CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/nicolas-van-broekhoven-24a66c2d-bca4-4f5b-adda-c4e2bcc509f4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1208" rel="noopener">Nicolas Van Broekhoven</a> revisits <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aem-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11019:1" rel="noopener">AEM Holdings (AEM SP)</a> after an impressive set of results and remains positive.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bjbr-positive-fundamental-momentum-at-a-decent-valuation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44897" rel="noopener">BJBR: Positive Fundamental Momentum at a Decent Valuation,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1716" rel="noopener">Thomas J. Monaco</a> writes on this smaller Indonesian lender with a positive slant.</p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/oversea-chinese-banking-corp-still-not-a-great-eastern" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44901" rel="noopener">Oversea Chinese Banking Corp – Still Not A Great Eastern,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1716" rel="noopener">Thomas J. Monaco</a> looked in detail at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> numbers ahead of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC SP)</a> results. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/oversea-chinese-banking-corp-solid" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45061" rel="noopener">Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. – Solid,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1716" rel="noopener">Thomas J. Monaco</a> revisits this Singapore lender with a positive view post its recent 3Q2020 numbers. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/surya-citra-media-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14739:1" rel="noopener"></a>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/dbs-group-holdings-not-trending-the-right-way-yet" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> DBS Group Holdings – Not Trending The Right Way Yet</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/thomas-j-monaco" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Thomas J. Monaco</a> reports back<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dbs-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP)</a>'s post its recent 3Q2020 results with a chequered view.</p>
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<p>In this Thai Insight,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hmpro-expect-government-stimulus-scheme-drive-4q20-recover-qoq" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> HMPRO: Expect Government Stimulus Scheme Drive 4Q20 Recover QoQ,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> circle back to Thailand's leading home improvements player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/home-product-center-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9906:1" rel="noopener">Home Product Center (HMPRO TB)</a>. </p>
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<p>In<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/synex-solid-earnings-growth-outlook-but-largely-priced-in" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> SYNEX: Solid Earnings Growth Outlook but Largely Priced In</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Country Group</a> provides a view on<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/synnex-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Synnex Thailand (SYNEX TB),</a> following the recent run-up in the share price. </p>
<p>In this Thai Insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scc-strong-3q20-thanks-to-petrochemical-spread" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SCC: Strong 3Q20 Thanks to Petrochemical Spread</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a> return to look at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-cement-pcl-the" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Siam Cement (SCC TB)</a> post 3Q2020 results. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mc-prominent-denim-brand-with-new-growth-momentum" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:45077" rel="noopener">MC: Prominent Denim Brand with New Growth Momentum,</a> our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965" rel="noopener">Country Group</a>initiate on this leading Thai denim apparel player. They initiate coverage of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mc-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17093:1" rel="noopener">MC Group Pcl (MC TB)</a> with a BUY rating and a target price of Bt12.0, derived from 18.5x FY21E PER, which is +1SD above its 5-year trading average but slightly lower than its global apparel peers.</p>
<h3>Credit Insights</h3>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/lippo-karawaci-earnings-flash-q3-fy-2020-results-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Lippo Karawaci - Earnings Flash - Q3 FY 2020 Results</a>, credit specialist<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/trung-nguyen" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Trung Nguyen</a> looks at<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lippo-karawaci-tbk-pt" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ)'s</a> after its recent results, which continued to be robust in Q32020. </p>
<p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chandra-asri-earnings-flash-9m-fy-2020-results-lucror-analytics" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:44814" rel="noopener">Chandra Asri - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2020 Results</a> credit specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/leonard-law-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:7106" rel="noopener">Leonard Law, CFA</a> circles back to this leading chemicals player post 3Q2020 results.</p>


Corrigenda: There is an error in this Insight. Please note the correction.
Correction: The Insight BJBR: Positive Fundamental Momentum at a Decent Valuation was improperly attributed to Thomas Monaco. It was published by Paul Hollingworth.



The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up and credit insights over the past week.
We add below a NEW section, which includes emerging themes in ASEAN and selects important news flow or developments for commentary, which may impact SE Asian companies and markets.  

Smartkarma Corporate Webinar | Indo Banks: The Worst Is Over- 10th November at 4 pm.
For our next Corporate Webinar, we welcome Bank Mandiri Persero (BMRI IJ)'s Group Head of Investor Relations, Yohan Setio, who will share some company updates and sit down for a fireside chat with Smartkarma Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh.
Indonesia's Recovery and the Next Digital Darling
This week below the fold we look at Indonesia's recent economic numbers which saw the country slide into recession, its first since the Asian Crisis but find it encouraging that the economy is moving onto a recovery track. We see selective banks and Astra International (ASII IJ) as core ways to play this recovery. 
Sea Ltd (SE US) is SoutEast Asia's largest Market Cap stock, and there are very few if any alternatives to get exposure to the region's e-commerce boom, certainly in the listed universe. One potential future candidate is Emtek (EMTK IJ), which is the major shareholder of PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) but it also has stakes in Bukalapak and Dana, the number three digital payments player in Indonesia and a JV with Ant Financial.
Emtek (EMTK IJ) has announced that it will seek approval for a stock split in December but this may not be the end of the story. Any restructuring which brings all of its digital assets under one roof and improves liquidity would certainly help the company attract more institutional investors and secure a higher valuation. 
Macro Insights
In Thai Strategy 2021 (Part 2): Top 10 Stock Picks, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA lays out his top stock picks in Thailand for next year.
In Thai Strategy 2021 (Part 3): Sector Outlooks, our Thai guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA provides us with his sector strategy in Thailand for the coming year. 
Equity Bottom Up
In an Indonesian Insight, Astra International (ASII IJ) - An Auto-Recovery Story with a Golden Digital Twist, CrossASEAN Insight provider Angus Mackintosh returns to look at Astra International (ASII IJ) after a conversation with management. 
In PT Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA IJ) - Let the Games Begin, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits one of Indonesia's leading media companies, which has an increasingly digital twist.
In AEM Holdings: Optimistic on FY21; Fair Value Remains at 5 SGD (41% Upside), CrossASEAN Insight Provider Nicolas Van Broekhoven revisits AEM Holdings (AEM SP) after an impressive set of results and remains positive.
In BJBR: Positive Fundamental Momentum at a Decent Valuation,Thomas J. Monaco writes on this smaller Indonesian lender with a positive slant.
In Oversea Chinese Banking Corp – Still Not A Great Eastern,Thomas J. Monaco looked in detail at Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) numbers ahead of Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. (OCBC SP) results. 
In Oversea Chinese Banking Corp. – Solid,Thomas J. Monaco revisits this Singapore lender with a positive view post its recent 3Q2020 numbers. 
In DBS Group Holdings – Not Trending The Right Way Yet, Thomas J. Monaco reports back DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP)'s post its recent 3Q2020 results with a chequered view.



In this Thai Insight, HMPRO: Expect Government Stimulus Scheme Drive 4Q20 Recover QoQ, our friends at Country Group circle back to Thailand's leading home improvements player Home Product Center (HMPRO TB). 



In SYNEX: Solid Earnings Growth Outlook but Largely Priced In, Country Group provides a view on Synnex Thailand (SYNEX TB), following the recent run-up in the share price. 
In this Thai Insight, SCC: Strong 3Q20 Thanks to Petrochemical Spread, our friends at Country Group return to look at Siam Cement (SCC TB) post 3Q2020 results. 
In MC: Prominent Denim Brand with New Growth Momentum, our friends at Country Groupinitiate on this leading Thai denim apparel player. They initiate coverage of MC Group Pcl (MC TB) with a BUY rating and a target price of Bt12.0, derived from 18.5x FY21E PER, which is +1SD above its 5-year trading average but slightly lower than its global apparel peers.
Credit Insights
In Lippo Karawaci - Earnings Flash - Q3 FY 2020 Results, credit specialist Trung Nguyen looks at Lippo Karawaci (LPKR IJ)'s after its recent results, which continued to be robust in Q32020. 
In Chandra Asri - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2020 Results credit specialist Leonard Law, CFA circles back to this leading chemicals player post 3Q2020 results.

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Indonesia's Recovery and the Next Digital Darling

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<p>This week's offering of Insights across <strong><a href="mailto:ASEAN@Smartkarma" target="_blank">ASEAN@Smartkarma</a> </strong>is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across <strong>South East Asia</strong> and includes <strong>macro, top-down </strong>and<strong> thematic pieces</strong>, as well as <strong>actionable equity bottom-up pieces</strong>. Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section.</p>
<p>Highlights from the last week include macro commentary from<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/prasenjit-k-basu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:612">Prasenjit K. Basu</a></strong> post the <strong>re-appointment of Prayuth as Thai PM</strong> and<strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/kevin-o-rourke" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:2060">Kevin O’Rourke</a></strong> on <strong>corruption in Indonesia</strong>. <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/jessica-irene" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3145">Jessica Irene</a></strong> wrote on <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hm-sampoerna-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:617:1">Hm Sampoerna (HMSP IJ)</a></strong> and the Indonesian cigarette market, whilst <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dylan-waller" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:334">Dylan Waller</a></strong> zeros in on Vietnamese retailer <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mobile-world-investment-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22638:1">Mobile World Investment (MWG VN)</a></strong>. <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937">Angus Mackintosh</a></strong> also revisits<strong> the state of the Indonesian Consumer</strong> after a meeting with <strong>Nielsen Indonesia</strong>. </p>
<p>I also include in the detailed section <strong>selected excerpts from discussion streams on Smartkarma</strong> over the past week on matters in ASEAN.</p>
</div><h2>Macro Insights</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/prayuth-duly-retains-the-prime-ministership-so-there-ll-be-stable-but-modest-growth" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30280">Prayuth Duly Retains the Prime Ministership; so There'll Be Stable but Modest Growth</a>, CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/prasenjit-k-basu" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:612">Prasenjit K. Basu</a> revisits Thailand following the confirmation that Prayuth will retain his position as Prime Minister. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pertamina-case-highlights-risk-airline-dereg-unlikely-pd-leans-widodo-no-court-demos" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30420">Pertamina Case Highlights Risk / Airline Dereg Unlikely / PD Leans Widodo / No Court Demos</a>, CrossASEAN Insight Provider comments on the most important political and economic developments in Indonesia over the past week. </p><h2>Equity Bottom-Up Insights</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/hm-sampoerna-hmsp-ij-the-king-s-struggle" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30289">HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ): The King's Struggle</a>, CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/jessica-irene" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3145">Jessica Irene</a> revisits one of Indonesian's largest cigarette manufacturers and asks whether it is time to revisit the company. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mcjeans-gfpt-can-it-get-any-worse" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29600">McJeans &amp; GFPT: Can It Get Any Worse?</a>, our Thai Guru <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> reports back following company visits to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mc-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17093:1">MC Group Pcl (MC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gfpt-public-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11894:1">Gfpt Public (GFPT TB)</a>, two very different small-cap companies. </p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mobile-world-investment-corporation-discount-to-other-consumer-stocks-is-asymmetric" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30412">Mobile World Investment Corporation: Discount to Other Consumer Stocks Is Asymmetric</a>, Frontiersman <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/dylan-waller" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:334">Dylan Waller</a> writes on Vietnamese retail player <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mobile-world-investment-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22638:1">Mobile World Investment (MWG VN)</a>, which he sees as one of the most interesting consumer plays in the country.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/synex-concern-over-huawei-dilemma-was-overreacted" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30415">SYNEX: Concern over Huawei Dilemma Was Overreaction</a>, our friends at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/companies/country-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="companies:965">Country Group</a> revisit this Thai mobile phone play after a sharp correction driven by its connection to Chinese phone giant Huawei. </p><h2>Sector and Thematic Insights</h2><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/indonesian-consumers-lifestyle-leisure-and-smartphone-lovers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:30285">Indonesian Consumers - Lifestyle, Leisure, and Smartphone Lovers</a>, CrossASEAN Insight Provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/angus-mackintosh" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:937">Angus Mackintosh</a> revisits the state of the consumer in Indonesia following a meeting with Nielsen Indonesia.</p><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/snippets-23-italian-thai-s-hotel-diversification-new-starbucks-honcho" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:29658">Snippets #23: Italian-Thai's Hotel Diversification, New Starbucks Honcho!</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/athaporn-arayasantiparb-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:766">Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA</a> highlights five pieces of recent news/developments over the past week, which could potentially impact listed Thai stocks. </p>


This week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable insights from across South East Asia and includes macro, top-down and thematic pieces, as well as actionable equity bottom-up pieces. Please find a brief summary below, with a fuller write up in the detailed section.
Highlights from the last week include macro commentary fromPrasenjit K. Basu post the re-appointment of Prayuth as Thai PM andKevin O’Rourke on corruption in Indonesia. Jessica Irene wrote on Hm Sampoerna (HMSP IJ) and the Indonesian cigarette market, whilst Dylan Waller zeros in on Vietnamese retailer Mobile World Investment (MWG VN). Angus Mackintosh also revisits the state of the Indonesian Consumer after a meeting with Nielsen Indonesia. 
I also include in the detailed section selected excerpts from discussion streams on Smartkarma over the past week on matters in ASEAN.
Macro InsightsIn Prayuth Duly Retains the Prime Ministership; so There'll Be Stable but Modest Growth, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Prasenjit K. Basu revisits Thailand following the confirmation that Prayuth will retain his position as Prime Minister. In Pertamina Case Highlights Risk / Airline Dereg Unlikely / PD Leans Widodo / No Court Demos, CrossASEAN Insight Provider comments on the most important political and economic developments in Indonesia over the past week. Equity Bottom-Up InsightsIn HM Sampoerna (HMSP IJ): The King's Struggle, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Jessica Irene revisits one of Indonesian's largest cigarette manufacturers and asks whether it is time to revisit the company. In McJeans &amp; GFPT: Can It Get Any Worse?, our Thai Guru Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA reports back following company visits to MC Group Pcl (MC TB) and Gfpt Public (GFPT TB), two very different small-cap companies. In Mobile World Investment Corporation: Discount to Other Consumer Stocks Is Asymmetric, Frontiersman Dylan Waller writes on Vietnamese retail player Mobile World Investment (MWG VN), which he sees as one of the most interesting consumer plays in the country.In SYNEX: Concern over Huawei Dilemma Was Overreaction, our friends at Country Group revisit this Thai mobile phone play after a sharp correction driven by its connection to Chinese phone giant Huawei. Sector and Thematic InsightsIn Indonesian Consumers - Lifestyle, Leisure, and Smartphone Lovers, CrossASEAN Insight Provider Angus Mackintosh revisits the state of the consumer in Indonesia following a meeting with Nielsen Indonesia.In Snippets #23: Italian-Thai's Hotel Diversification, New Starbucks Honcho! , Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA highlights five pieces of recent news/developments over the past week, which could potentially impact listed Thai stocks. 

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Indonesian Consumers, Cigarettes, and Mobile World

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

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<p>A recent report by <em>Verisk Maplecroft</em> has some pretty grim conclusions for labor markets in Asia. It's pretty long reading, but they highlight the risk that in many Asian markets, labor will become super cheap as they are forced to compete with robots:</p><ul>
<li>China bought 30% of the industrial robots globally.</li>
<li>According to the ILO (International Labor Organization), ASEAN-5 countries could see 56% job loss to robots by 2040.  </li>
<li>On the bright side, Thailand seems to have the best chance of escaping this…</li>
</ul>

A recent report by Verisk Maplecroft has some pretty grim conclusions for labor markets in Asia. It's pretty long reading, but they highlight the risk that in many Asian markets, labor will become super cheap as they are forced to compete with robots:
China bought 30% of the industrial robots globally.
According to the ILO (International Labor Organization), ASEAN-5 countries could see 56% job loss to robots by 2040.  
On the bright side, Thailand seems to have the best chance of escaping this…


<p><strong>Trump followed up his first volley of white goods tariff with one on steel</strong>, prompting an increasing real prospect of global trade wars, as other economic superpowers such as China and Europe start to look around for how they can retaliate. Now that Trump claims Germany needs to dismantle its own tariffs or face one on luxury German cars, the Germans threatened to look into American exports such as jeans. To complicate matters, certain American allies such as Canada and Mexico (<em>seriously?...What</em>…</p>

Trump followed up his first volley of white goods tariff with one on steel, prompting an increasing real prospect of global trade wars, as other economic superpowers such as China and Europe start to look around for how they can retaliate. Now that Trump claims Germany needs to dismantle its own tariffs or face one on luxury German cars, the Germans threatened to look into American exports such as jeans. To complicate matters, certain American allies such as Canada and Mexico (seriously?...What…

Thai Macro Watch (March'18): Dodging the Global Trade War

<p>As a follow-up to our positive call on Thai retailers and domestic consumption in 2018, we visited a few companies linked to this theme recently namely upcountry retailer Robinsons and CPN REIT. Both firms are part of the same Central Group <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/thai-coons-ep-3-rbs-logo-seriously" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:6332">Thai-Coons (Ep. 3): RBS Logo...Seriously?</a> With the exception of Robinsons,  most of the results in 2017 were quite weak, but they were also equally optimistic about prospects in 2018 with the economic improvements and the end of royal cremation.</p><table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
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</tbody></table>…

As a follow-up to our positive call on Thai retailers and domestic consumption in 2018, we visited a few companies linked to this theme recently namely upcountry retailer Robinsons and CPN REIT. Both firms are part of the same Central Group Thai-Coons (Ep. 3): RBS Logo...Seriously? With the exception of Robinsons,  most of the results in 2017 were quite weak, but they were also equally optimistic about prospects in 2018 with the economic improvements and the end of royal cremation.

Stock
Niche
Shr

…

Thai Retailing: 2017's Low Base a Boon for 2018

Thailand

MC Group Public Company Limited is a Thai company specializing in the manufacturing and distribution management of apparel and lifestyle products, including denim, non-denim, and fashion accessories, under its own brands and other brands. The company offers a diverse range of products through both online and offline channels. It was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Bangkok, Thailand.

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MC Group (MC TB)

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Indonesia's Recovery and the Next Digital Darling

The week that was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights from across SE...

Angus Mackintosh

The Week that Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Indonesian Consumers, Cigarettes, and Mobile World

This week's offering of Insights across ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with another eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive and actionable...

Angus Mackintosh

Maplecroft on Labor & Robotics

A recent report by Verisk Maplecroft has some pretty grim conclusions for labor markets in Asia. It's pretty long reading, but they highlight the...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thai Macro Watch (March'18): Dodging the Global Trade War

Trump followed up his first volley of white goods tariff with one on steel, prompting an increasing real prospect of global trade wars, as other...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Thai Retailing: 2017's Low Base a Boon for 2018

As a follow-up to our positive call on Thai retailers and domestic consumption in 2018, we visited a few companies linked to this theme recently...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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