EM PM, Ecstrat

Emad Mostaque

EM PM

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be President of the United States of America, comfortably winning the electoral vote even as Hillary won the popular vote. </p><p>I outline my initial thoughts on the drivers behind this, and the political, geopolitical and market impact of this below.</p>

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be President of the United States of America, comfortably winning the electoral vote even as Hillary won the popular vote. I outline my initial thoughts on the drivers behind this, and the political, geopolitical and market impact of this below.

Trump & The Morning After the Night Before

Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

<ul>
<li><div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were discounting recession/deflation fears</span></div></li>
<li><div style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US">The data suggests the opposite risk - the global composite PMI is now at its highest level of the year, with broad based improvement in October.</span></div></li>
<li><div style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US">The earnings yield outlook for equities is rapidly improving – the MSCI AC net earnings revisions ratio looks set to turn positive, having been at a post 2008 low of</span>…</div></li>
</ul>


I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were discounting recession/deflation fears
The data suggests the opposite risk - the global composite PMI is now at its highest level of the year, with broad based improvement in October.

The earnings yield outlook for equities is rapidly improving – the MSCI AC net earnings revisions ratio looks set to turn positive, having been at a post 2008 low of…


Global Equity Earnings Revisions Rebound, Can Macau Casino Revenues?

Independent, global risk consultancy, Control Risks

Aparajita Verma

Independent, global risk consultancy

Control Risks

Control Risks is an independent, global risk consultancy specialising in helping organisations manage political, integrity and security risks in complex and hostile environments. We support clients by providing strategic consultancy, expert analysis and in-depth investigations, handling sensitive political issues and providing practical on-the-ground protection and support.

Our unique combination of services, geographical reach and the trust our clients place in us ensure we can help them to effectively solve their problems and realise new opportunities across the world.

<p>Whatever the outcome of the US election, President Barack Obama's departure in early 2017 will present renewed challenges for Asia Pacific trade. While the much-awaited Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement is still expected to pass, strong public support for increased protectionism, and the general rhetoric coming out of the US presidential campaign, hints at broader trade and currency risks for Asia Pacific, in particular for those companies reliant on global supply chains for manufacturing. Michael Moran from Control Risks reviews whether the tides have turned against free trade.</p>

Whatever the outcome of the US election, President Barack Obama's departure in early 2017 will present renewed challenges for Asia Pacific trade. While the much-awaited Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement is still expected to pass, strong public support for increased protectionism, and the general rhetoric coming out of the US presidential campaign, hints at broader trade and currency risks for Asia Pacific, in particular for those companies reliant on global supply chains for manufacturing. Michael Moran from Control Risks reviews whether the tides have turned against free trade.

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

<p>Two New Yorkers who would be the future President of America debated in a world-stopping match at the home state today, and most would agree that Hillary won. Nevertheless, we get some credit to two Thai pundits who true to their contrarian nature said Trump is better for the Thai and Asian economies. We like Trump's take on tax cuts and high infrastructure spending, as this could be America needs for the short term. If elected, Hillary is more likely to get re-elected in 2020 than a now unlikely President Trump, so it's good that she has long term policies. With Trump's emphasis on local production of coal and oil, his defeat today bodes well for Banpu and PTTEP, as well as Thai exporters. Though Trump is not targetting Thai exports (we are too small), we agree with Dr. Chawala of CIMB that his attacks on China eventually trickle down to Thai exporters as well, since many Chinese companies buy from Thailand for re-export. With export revenues, Chinese would also have problems purchasing stuff from us.</p>

Two New Yorkers who would be the future President of America debated in a world-stopping match at the home state today, and most would agree that Hillary won. Nevertheless, we get some credit to two Thai pundits who true to their contrarian nature said Trump is better for the Thai and Asian economies. We like Trump's take on tax cuts and high infrastructure spending, as this could be America needs for the short term. If elected, Hillary is more likely to get re-elected in 2020 than a now unlikely President Trump, so it's good that she has long term policies. With Trump's emphasis on local production of coal and oil, his defeat today bodes well for Banpu and PTTEP, as well as Thai exporters. Though Trump is not targetting Thai exports (we are too small), we agree with Dr. Chawala of CIMB that his attacks on China eventually trickle down to Thai exporters as well, since many Chinese companies buy from Thailand for re-export. With export revenues, Chinese would also have problems purchasing stuff from us.

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Event-Driven

<p><strong>In the race to acquire McDonald's Korea, it was announced yesterday that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6420" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6420:1">Maeil Dairy Industry (005990 KS)</a> and The Carlyle Group consortium has become the sole bidder.</strong> The other consortium including the KG Group and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8452" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8452:1">Nhn Entertainment Corp (181710 KS)</a> has dropped its bid. It was reported that the KG Group and NHN Entertainment wanted to purchase McDonald's Korea for about 500 billion won (US$455 million), which was too low according to McDonald's Korea. Maeil Dairy Industry and The Carlyle…</p>

In the race to acquire McDonald's Korea, it was announced yesterday that the Maeil Dairy Industry (005990 KS) and The Carlyle Group consortium has become the sole bidder. The other consortium including the KG Group and Nhn Entertainment Corp (181710 KS) has dropped its bid. It was reported that the KG Group and NHN Entertainment wanted to purchase McDonald's Korea for about 500 billion won (US$455 million), which was too low according to McDonald's Korea. Maeil Dairy Industry and The Carlyle…

Korea M&A Spotlight: McDonald's Korea Acquisition - Maeil & Carlyle Consortium Becomes Sole Bidder

United States

McDonald's Corporation franchises and operates fast-food restaurants in the global restaurant industry. The Company's restaurants serve a variety of value-priced menu products in countries around the world.

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Mcdonald's Corp (MCD US)

Trump & The Morning After the Night Before

As we come to the end of potentially one of the most transformative nights in global history it now seems almost certain that Donald Trump will be...

Emad Mostaque

Global Equity Earnings Revisions Rebound, Can Macau Casino Revenues?

I’ve been highlighting since mid-year a likely normalization of bond yields (and equity proxy multiples) from extreme valuation levels which were...

Sean Maher

On Trade, An Era Is Ending

Whatever the outcome of the US election, President Barack Obama's departure in early 2017 will present renewed challenges for Asia Pacific trade....

Control Risks

Hometown New York: Hillary 1, Trump 0

Two New Yorkers who would be the future President of America debated in a world-stopping match at the home state today, and most would agree that...

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Korea M&A Spotlight: McDonald's Korea Acquisition - Maeil & Carlyle Consortium Becomes Sole Bidder

In the race to acquire McDonald's Korea, it was announced yesterday that the Maeil Dairy Industry (005990 KS) and The Carlyle Group consortium has...

Douglas Kim

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