IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackmores-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:928:1" rel="noopener">Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU)</a> has entered a binding proposal with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kirin-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16977:1" rel="noopener">Kirin Holdings (2503 JP)</a> at A$95.00 per share, a 23.7% premium to the undisturbed price (16 April).</li>
<li>The offer is attractive. Marcus Blackmore, the largest shareholder, will vote in favour of the offer. Regulatory approvals should be forthcoming.   </li>
<li>The scheme meeting is in July. At the last close, the gross and annualised spread for a late August payment is 0.8% and 2.2%, respectively.</li>
</ul>



Blackmores Ltd (BKL AU) has entered a binding proposal with Kirin Holdings (2503 JP) at A$95.00 per share, a 23.7% premium to the undisturbed price (16 April).
The offer is attractive. Marcus Blackmore, the largest shareholder, will vote in favour of the offer. Regulatory approvals should be forthcoming.   
The scheme meeting is in July. At the last close, the gross and annualised spread for a late August payment is 0.8% and 2.2%, respectively.


Blackmores (BKL AU): Kirin’s Binding A$95.00 Offer

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite the challenges in Myanmar. MEGA reported all-time-high level of net profit at Bt659m (+8%YoY, +16%QoQ), higher than our forecast and 19% above BB consensus estimated.</li>
<li>Solid 3Q22 result thanks to solid distribution business Excluding extraordinary items, core profit was at Bt669m (+25%YoY, +23%QoQ). The 9M22 result accounted for 84% of our 2022E.</li>
<li>Mega We Care’s revenue (Branded products business) reach to Bt2bn (flat YoY,+2%QoQ) driven by a recovery in revenue from prescription pharmaceutical products along with rebounding number of patient in hospitals</li>
</ul>


Despite the challenges in Myanmar. MEGA reported all-time-high level of net profit at Bt659m (+8%YoY, +16%QoQ), higher than our forecast and 19% above BB consensus estimated.
Solid 3Q22 result thanks to solid distribution business Excluding extraordinary items, core profit was at Bt669m (+25%YoY, +23%QoQ). The 9M22 result accounted for 84% of our 2022E.
Mega We Care’s revenue (Branded products business) reach to Bt2bn (flat YoY,+2%QoQ) driven by a recovery in revenue from prescription pharmaceutical products along with rebounding number of patient in hospitals


MEGA : 3Q22 Profit Reach to All-Time-High Level

Head of Research, Krungthai XSpring

Waraporn Wiboonkanarak

Head of Research

A full service Thai brokerage

Krungthai XSpring

Krungthai XSpring is a full service broker. The company provides a wide range of investment services such as Securities Brokerage, Derivative Agent Business, Securities Borrowing and Lending, Securities Trading, Underwriting, Financial Advisory, Wealth Advisory, Private Fund Management and International Markets Securities Trading. 

In terms of credibility, Fitch Ratings has assigned Krunghtai XSpring a long-term rating of AA- and a national short-term rating of F1+ with stable outlook.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>We propose a new set of global plays in accordance with the de- globalization trend, shifting the allocation toward Asia-based companies with better growth prospects than those that generate the bulk of their revenue in Western markets.</li><li>Our recommended stocks are CBG and SCGP.</li><li><div><div><p>The global economy is less synchronized than in the past, meaning that a global plays strategy should be more area focused to enhance the growth potential.</p></div></div></li></ul></div></div></div></div>

We propose a new set of global plays in accordance with the de- globalization trend, shifting the allocation toward Asia-based companies with better growth prospects than those that generate the bulk of their revenue in Western markets.Our recommended stocks are CBG and SCGP.The global economy is less synchronized than in the past, meaning that a global plays strategy should be more area focused to enhance the growth potential.

Changing Landscape for Global Plays - Shifting the Allocation of Global Plays Toward Asia

<ul>
<li>MEGA’s share price corrected 30%from its peak, which we believe it has mostly priced in obstacles to business operation in Myanmar.We upgrade to BUY with a target price of Bt54</li>
<li>Expect 3Q22 result to be another strong quarter Mega We Care’s revenue (Branded products business) is expected to reach at Bt2bn (+1%YoY,+3%QoQ) driven by a recovery in revenue from prescription</li>
<li>Maxxcare’s revenue (Distribution business) is expected to drop to Bt1.75bn (-7%YoY, -6%QoQ) pressured by lower consumer purchasing power following a rising inflation and Myanmar’s Kyat depreciation</li>
</ul>


MEGA’s share price corrected 30%from its peak, which we believe it has mostly priced in obstacles to business operation in Myanmar.We upgrade to BUY with a target price of Bt54
Expect 3Q22 result to be another strong quarter Mega We Care’s revenue (Branded products business) is expected to reach at Bt2bn (+1%YoY,+3%QoQ) driven by a recovery in revenue from prescription
Maxxcare’s revenue (Distribution business) is expected to drop to Bt1.75bn (-7%YoY, -6%QoQ) pressured by lower consumer purchasing power following a rising inflation and Myanmar’s Kyat depreciation


MEGA : Attractive Valuation with Sustainable Growth Outlook

<ul>
<li>Downgrade our recommendation from BUY to HOLD with a target price of Bt54. Despite the challenges in Myanmar. MEGA reported 2Q22 net profit of Bt570m (+13%YoY, -7%QoQ), in-line our expectation </li>
<li>Another strong quarterly performance Excluding extraordinary items, core profit was at Bt544m (+16%YoY, -13%QoQ). The 1H22 result accounted for 56% of our 2022E.</li>
<li>The YoY growth in earnings supported by 1) Mega We care’s sales grew to Bt2bn (+19%YoY)and close to the highest level in 3Q21,and 2) gross profit margin expanded to 42.6% </li>
</ul>


Downgrade our recommendation from BUY to HOLD with a target price of Bt54. Despite the challenges in Myanmar. MEGA reported 2Q22 net profit of Bt570m (+13%YoY, -7%QoQ), in-line our expectation 
Another strong quarterly performance Excluding extraordinary items, core profit was at Bt544m (+16%YoY, -13%QoQ). The 1H22 result accounted for 56% of our 2022E.
The YoY growth in earnings supported by 1) Mega We care’s sales grew to Bt2bn (+19%YoY)and close to the highest level in 3Q21,and 2) gross profit margin expanded to 42.6% 


MEGA : Strong Performance Amid Uncertainty

Thailand

Mega Lifesciences PCL manufactures, markets and distributes nutritional and herbal supplement, OTC and ethical drugs. The Company produces products that range from treating internal issues to overall general health.

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Mega Lifesciences (MEGA TB)

Blackmores (BKL AU): Kirin’s Binding A$95.00 Offer

The offer is attractive. Regulatory approvals should be forthcoming. At the last close, the annualised spread for a late August payment is 2.2%.

Arun George

MEGA : 3Q22 Profit Reach to All-Time-High Level

Despite the challenges in Myanmar. MEGA reported all-time-high level of net profit at Bt659m (+8%YoY, +16%QoQ), higher than our forecast and 19%...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Changing Landscape for Global Plays - Shifting the Allocation of Global Plays Toward Asia

The global economy is less synchronized than in the past, meaning that a global plays strategy should be more area focused to enhance the growth...

Krungthai XSpring

MEGA : Attractive Valuation with Sustainable Growth Outlook

MEGA’s share price corrected 30% from its peak, which we believe it has mostly priced in obstacles to business operation in Myanmar. We upgrade to...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

MEGA : Strong Performance Amid Uncertainty

Downgrade our recommendation from BUY to HOLD with a target price of Bt54. Despite the challenges in Myanmar. MEGA reported 2Q22 net profit of...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

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