Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see three new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in December. One is already in Stock Connect, one will be added to Stock Connect while one will not.</li>
<li>Given the large market moves, there will be many changes to the HSCI in March 2023. Quite a few stocks could remain in the HSCI but drop out of Connect.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see three new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in December. One is already in Stock Connect, one will be added to Stock Connect while one will not.
Given the large market moves, there will be many changes to the HSCI in March 2023. Quite a few stocks could remain in the HSCI but drop out of Connect.
Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December & March (There's a Lot!)

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Scholars / In Depth: How law professors take turns to serve China’s courts</li><li>Forum / China, U.S. urged to manage ‘cutthroat’ competition and avoid war over Taiwan</li><li>Flu / Flu epidemic sweeps South China as Covid wanes</li></ul>

Scholars / In Depth: How law professors take turns to serve China’s courtsForum / China, U.S. urged to manage ‘cutthroat’ competition and avoid war over TaiwanFlu / Flu epidemic sweeps South China as Covid wanes

CX Daily: How Law Professors Take Turns to Serve China’s Courts

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The impact of dental implants centralized procurement on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/modern-dental-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21020:1" rel="noopener">Modern Dental Group (3600 HK)</a> (MDG) could be limited, and the strategic partnership with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meitu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23573:1" rel="noopener">Meitu Inc (1357 HK)</a> on “QJ Smile” also brings more possibilities.</li>
<li>The concerns include doubts on R&amp;D/innovation capability, complex international relations, foreign policy disturbances, unsettling macro environment and immature invisible orthodontic business, bringing uncertainties in terms of future development outlook.</li>
<li>Although the 2021 full-year performance is worth looking forward to, which could be the short-term catalyst, MDG is more suitable for short term trading than long term holding.</li>
</ul>


The impact of dental implants centralized procurement on Modern Dental Group (3600 HK) (MDG) could be limited, and the strategic partnership with Meitu Inc (1357 HK) on “QJ Smile” also brings more possibilities.
The concerns include doubts on R&amp;D/innovation capability, complex international relations, foreign policy disturbances, unsettling macro environment and immature invisible orthodontic business, bringing uncertainties in terms of future development outlook.
Although the 2021 full-year performance is worth looking forward to, which could be the short-term catalyst, MDG is more suitable for short term trading than long term holding.


Modern Dental Group (3600.HK) - More Suitable for Short Term Trading than Long Term Holding

Alpha-Centric ESG Research

Kyle Rudden

Well, that sure escalated quickly.Early last week, in the Insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/pre-ipo-esg-analysis-didi-s-exemplary-esg-achievements-eclipsed-by-regulatory-risks-and-uncertainty" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:53687" rel="noopener">Pre-IPO ESG Analysis: DiDi's Exemplary ESG Achievements Eclipsed By Regulatory Risks and Uncertainty</a>, I juxtaposed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi's (DIDI US)</a> relatively strong ESG results in areas under its control with serious concerns about regulatory risk outside of its direct control.Late last week, days after DiDi's successful US$4.4 billion initial public offering, Chinese regulators ordered the removal of DiDi's business-critical ride-hailing apps from online app markets, until the company rectifies "serious violations" pertaining to collection and use of customer data.DiDi is down 5.3% so far (delayed open today).Regulatory risk was central to my thesis in the first Insight. I hardly anticipated this, but I referred to regulatory risk as real, near-term, tangible investment risk; not just some fuzzy ESG risk. Given that, I felt obliged to follow up. At the same time, however, this news is covered ad nauseam.No sense in beating a dead horse with a broken record.So, I decided to do something different. That statement about regulatory risk being a real tangible investment risk is primarily based on anecdotal evidence – i.e., when regulators flex their muscle, stocks go down, not up. But "anecdotal" isn't good enough.Which is why I took this opportunity to quantify the impacts of adverse regulatory events in China. Specifically, with event studies measuring abnormal returns around major regulatory events across four broad categories. That's what most of this Insight is about. But back to DiDi for a moment.Regulatory risk and uncertainty for DiDi is much worse today than it was last week. Typically, the opposite would be true; a negative event out in the open is better than a possible event lurking in the shadows. But not this time. Barring an immediate change of heart by the PRC, this is bad.Therefore, downgrading to bearish.

Well, that sure escalated quickly.Early last week, in the Insight Pre-IPO ESG Analysis: DiDi's Exemplary ESG Achievements Eclipsed By Regulatory Risks and Uncertainty, I juxtaposed DiDi's (DIDI US) relatively strong ESG results in areas under its control with serious concerns about regulatory risk outside of its direct control.Late last week, days after DiDi's successful US$4.4 billion initial public offering, Chinese regulators ordered the removal of DiDi's business-critical ride-hailing apps from online app markets, until the company rectifies "serious violations" pertaining to collection and use of customer data.DiDi is down 5.3% so far (delayed open today).Regulatory risk was central to my thesis in the first Insight. I hardly anticipated this, but I referred to regulatory risk as real, near-term, tangible investment risk; not just some fuzzy ESG risk. Given that, I felt obliged to follow up. At the same time, however, this news is covered ad nauseam.No sense in beating a dead horse with a broken record.So, I decided to do something different. That statement about regulatory risk being a real tangible investment risk is primarily based on anecdotal evidence – i.e., when regulators flex their muscle, stocks go down, not up. But "anecdotal" isn't good enough.Which is why I took this opportunity to quantify the impacts of adverse regulatory events in China. Specifically, with event studies measuring abnormal returns around major regulatory events across four broad categories. That's what most of this Insight is about. But back to DiDi for a moment.Regulatory risk and uncertainty for DiDi is much worse today than it was last week. Typically, the opposite would be true; a negative event out in the open is better than a possible event lurking in the shadows. But not this time. Barring an immediate change of heart by the PRC, this is bad.Therefore, downgrading to bearish.

PRC Shows DiDi Who's Boss: An Analysis of Adverse Regulatory Events on Stock Prices

This is a follow-up to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/esg-and-bitcoin-the-truth-lies-somewhere-between-benign-and-boiling-off-oceans" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:52134" rel="noopener">ESG and Bitcoin: The Truth Lies Somewhere Between Benign and Boiling Off Oceans</a>, in which I discussed the ongoing cryptocurrency/ESG debate, and explained the reasoning behind my slightly positive long-term opinion of the issue (near-term negative, however).Essentially, it boiled down to the balance of Environmental, Social, and Governance issues. Proof-of-Work cryptocurrencies (especially Bitcoin) are an Environmental nightmare. However, there is reason for optimism (e.g., Ethereum 2.0), and some long-term Social issues are major positives.Nevertheless, the raging firestorm over cryptocurrency's Environmental footprint will be foremost on the minds of many ESG-minded investors. They will want avoid crypto at all costs. That is easy regarding direct exposure – just don't buy Bitcoin, Coinbase, or any other crypto pure-plays.Indirect cryptocurrency exposure is a different story altogether. As cryptocurrencies become more mainstream, the potential for indirect exposure increases – in probability, degree, and number of possible vectors. Some are hard to miss (e.g., Tesla), but others are much harder to identify.Ergo, this Insight. It covers the first of several emerging areas of potential indirect crypto exposure, specifically the growing cadre of listed companies putting crypto on the books; holding Bitcoins in treasuries for a variety of reasons, but primarily as a supposed super-hedge against inflation.It is written for the never-Bitcoin environmentalist investor, but with a little imagination any pro-Bitcoin investor can just flip its messages upside down. After all, whether indirect cryptocurrency exposure is an ESG risk or an ESG opportunity is entirely up to you to decide, for yourself.

This is a follow-up to ESG and Bitcoin: The Truth Lies Somewhere Between Benign and Boiling Off Oceans, in which I discussed the ongoing cryptocurrency/ESG debate, and explained the reasoning behind my slightly positive long-term opinion of the issue (near-term negative, however).Essentially, it boiled down to the balance of Environmental, Social, and Governance issues. Proof-of-Work cryptocurrencies (especially Bitcoin) are an Environmental nightmare. However, there is reason for optimism (e.g., Ethereum 2.0), and some long-term Social issues are major positives.Nevertheless, the raging firestorm over cryptocurrency's Environmental footprint will be foremost on the minds of many ESG-minded investors. They will want avoid crypto at all costs. That is easy regarding direct exposure – just don't buy Bitcoin, Coinbase, or any other crypto pure-plays.Indirect cryptocurrency exposure is a different story altogether. As cryptocurrencies become more mainstream, the potential for indirect exposure increases – in probability, degree, and number of possible vectors. Some are hard to miss (e.g., Tesla), but others are much harder to identify.Ergo, this Insight. It covers the first of several emerging areas of potential indirect crypto exposure, specifically the growing cadre of listed companies putting crypto on the books; holding Bitcoins in treasuries for a variety of reasons, but primarily as a supposed super-hedge against inflation.It is written for the never-Bitcoin environmentalist investor, but with a little imagination any pro-Bitcoin investor can just flip its messages upside down. After all, whether indirect cryptocurrency exposure is an ESG risk or an ESG opportunity is entirely up to you to decide, for yourself.

Bitcoin on Balance Sheets: Indirect Crypto Exposure Considerations for Crypto-Leery ESG Investors

China

Meitu, Inc. offers mobile application software. The Company researches, produces, and markets image editing, live broadcasting, and other related social software. Meitu Inc also participate in mobile designing and retailing around the world.

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Meitu Inc (1357 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December & March (There's a Lot!)

There could be 3 adds in December while there will be MANY more changes in March. The adds should outnumber the deletes, but there will be many...

Brian Freitas

CX Daily: How Law Professors Take Turns to Serve China’s Courts

Scholars / In Depth: How law professors take turns to serve China’s courts. Forum / China, U.S. urged to manage ‘cutthroat’ competition and avoid...

Caixin Global

Modern Dental Group (3600.HK) - More Suitable for Short Term Trading than Long Term Holding

The impact of dental implants centralized procurement could be limited.The concerns are R&D, international relations,immature invisible orthodontic...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

PRC Shows DiDi Who's Boss: An Analysis of Adverse Regulatory Events on Stock Prices

Last week, I wrote about DiDi's regulatory risk. This week, it's worse. Hence the downgrade. But this is mostly an analysis of how regulatory...

Kyle Rudden

Bitcoin on Balance Sheets: Indirect Crypto Exposure Considerations for Crypto-Leery ESG Investors

Companies are increasingly embracing cryptocurrencies as a corporate treasury management strategy. This looks at some representative companies with...

Kyle Rudden

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