ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> announced its much-anticipated FY2021 and 1Q2022 results, which did not disappoint, with improvements in a number of different metrics across its main verticals.  </li>
<li>1Q2022 saw a QoQ increase for on-demand, e-commerce, and fintech versus a seasonally strong 4Q plus the group improved take rates and contribution margin in 1Q2022 versus 4Q2021.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a>'s guidance for 2Q2022 is positive and it should be boosted by higher commission rates plus continuing synergies across the group, helping to improve profitability and growth.</li>
</ul>



GoTo announced its much-anticipated FY2021 and 1Q2022 results, which did not disappoint, with improvements in a number of different metrics across its main verticals.  
1Q2022 saw a QoQ increase for on-demand, e-commerce, and fintech versus a seasonally strong 4Q plus the group improved take rates and contribution margin in 1Q2022 versus 4Q2021.

GoTo's guidance for 2Q2022 is positive and it should be boosted by higher commission rates plus continuing synergies across the group, helping to improve profitability and growth.


GoTo (GOTO IJ) - Ploughing a Path to Profitability

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The latest in stock ownership data among active GEM Equity investors.</li>
<li>Latest aggregate positioning, most widely held stocks, over/underweights, unloved and avoided companies</li>
<li>Largest fund level stock positions(weight and USD), aggregate stock ownership changes, fund level stock ownership Changes</li>
</ul>


The latest in stock ownership data among active GEM Equity investors.
Latest aggregate positioning, most widely held stocks, over/underweights, unloved and avoided companies
Largest fund level stock positions(weight and USD), aggregate stock ownership changes, fund level stock ownership Changes


Emerging Markets Stock Positioning Chart Pack

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd</a> released a solid set of 1Q2022 results, with very strong YoY growth in e-commerce GAAP revenues, and a predictable softening of gaming revenues given greater mobility in 1Q2022. </li>
<li>A key highlight was improving profitability with the adjusted EBITDA loss per order falling 70% in South-East Asia and Taiwan. Management also signalled that gaming revenues started stabilising end 1Q2022.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> saw a strong rally post these results given guidance was maintained albeit with a wider range. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd</a> is now trading at a discount to peers.</li>
</ul>



Sea Ltd released a solid set of 1Q2022 results, with very strong YoY growth in e-commerce GAAP revenues, and a predictable softening of gaming revenues given greater mobility in 1Q2022. 
A key highlight was improving profitability with the adjusted EBITDA loss per order falling 70% in South-East Asia and Taiwan. Management also signalled that gaming revenues started stabilising end 1Q2022.

Sea Ltd (SE US) saw a strong rally post these results given guidance was maintained albeit with a wider range. Sea Ltd is now trading at a discount to peers.


Sea Ltd (SE US) - Reading the Positive Signals

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

<ul>
<li>This model looks for slowing growth, margin declines, sales and/or earnings disappointments, troubling working capital trends, poor estimate trends or lowered guidance, among other characteristics.</li>
<li>The key judgement is whether a slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a trend.  These shorts tend to have high valuations and betas.  Multiple compression accelerates the stock’s decline.</li>
<li>Today we are flagging MercadoLibre, Outset Med, Universal Display, Dexcom</li>
</ul>


This model looks for slowing growth, margin declines, sales and/or earnings disappointments, troubling working capital trends, poor estimate trends or lowered guidance, among other characteristics.
The key judgement is whether a slowdown is temporary or the beginning of a trend.  These shorts tend to have high valuations and betas.  Multiple compression accelerates the stock’s decline.
Today we are flagging MercadoLibre, Outset Med, Universal Display, Dexcom


Breaking Growth Short Candidates: MercadoLibre, Outset Med, Universal Display, Dexcom

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd's (SE US)</a> decision to exit India came as a surprise but looks like a prudent move given the heightened risk for Shopee there post the <em>FreeFire</em> ban.</li>
<li>The move will allow <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> to focus its attention and resources on a more profitable markets such as Brazil, which is already seen as a core market.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd's</a> growth model is intact with losses in its core e-commerce markets declining fast on a per order basis. Valuations are less challenging on 3.4x FY2023E EV/Sales.</li>
</ul>



Sea Ltd's (SE US) decision to exit India came as a surprise but looks like a prudent move given the heightened risk for Shopee there post the FreeFire ban.
The move will allow Sea Ltd (SE US) to focus its attention and resources on a more profitable markets such as Brazil, which is already seen as a core market.

Sea Ltd's growth model is intact with losses in its core e-commerce markets declining fast on a per order basis. Valuations are less challenging on 3.4x FY2023E EV/Sales.


Sea Ltd (SE US) - An Indian Odyssey Brings Experience

Brazil

MercadoLibre, Inc. operates an online trading site for the Latin American markets. The Company's website allows businesses and individuals to list items, conduct sales, and purchases online in either a fixed-price and auction format. MercadoLibre offers classified advertisements for motor vehicles, vessels, aircraft, and real estate, as well as online payment services.

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MercadoLibre (MELI US)

GoTo (GOTO IJ) - Ploughing a Path to Profitability

GoTo's guidance for 2Q2022 is positive and it should be boosted by higher commission rates plus continuing synergies across the group, helping to...

Angus Mackintosh

Emerging Markets Stock Positioning Chart Pack

The latest in stock ownership data among active Global Emerging Markets Equity funds. Most Widely Held, Over/Underweights, Unloved and Avoided...

Steven Holden

Sea Ltd (SE US) - Reading the Positive Signals

Sea Ltd saw a strong rally post results given guidance was maintained albeit with a wider range, and it is trading at a discount to peers, despite...

Angus Mackintosh

Breaking Growth Short Candidates: MercadoLibre, Outset Med, Universal Display, Dexcom

Breaking Growth stocks combine declining fundamentals with a multiple compression. This week we flag: MercadoLibre, Outset Med, Universal Display,...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Sea Ltd (SE US) - An Indian Odyssey Brings Experience

Sea Ltd's growth model is intact with losses in its core e-commerce markets declining fast on a per order basis. Valuations are less challenging on...

Angus Mackintosh

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