Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Persistent Margin Compression: Despite 44.6% revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA margins fell 318 bps YoY to 12.9% as aggressive ecosystem investments and credit expansion costs continue to prioritize scale over profitability.</li>
<li>
Neutral Credit Outlook: Limited scope for further spread compression exists as MELI 2031s already trade tight to the EM BBB index, reflecting a premium valuation that prices in current performance.</li>
<li>
Strategic Debt Escalation: Total debt rose $1.52B sequentially to $11.39B, driven by high funding requirements for a credit portfolio that surged 94.4% YoY, tightening liquidity coverage to 1.33x.</li>
</ul>



Persistent Margin Compression: Despite 44.6% revenue growth, adjusted EBITDA margins fell 318 bps YoY to 12.9% as aggressive ecosystem investments and credit expansion costs continue to prioritize scale over profitability.

Neutral Credit Outlook: Limited scope for further spread compression exists as MELI 2031s already trade tight to the EM BBB index, reflecting a premium valuation that prices in current performance.

Strategic Debt Escalation: Total debt rose $1.52B sequentially to $11.39B, driven by high funding requirements for a credit portfolio that surged 94.4% YoY, tightening liquidity coverage to 1.33x.


MercadoLibre 4Q25: Strong Growth, Margin Pressure Persists

Independent Investment Research & Investor, Maverick Equity Research

Maverick Equity Research

Independent Investment Research & Investor

Independent Investment Research & Investor: value, dividend and growth stocks. Risk management & hedging for an all weather portfolio.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>4 + 1 cherry picked Maverick Charts of the week say 10,000 words or more = the ‘How’!</li><li>Table of contents = the ‘What’! Executed in a succinct manner with the aim of a high density of ideas, because great research respects the reader’s time: Maverick Charts: Defense Contractors Backlog, Palantir, Mercado Libre, Wix</li><li>Bonus: S&amp;P 500 1st year Performance with new Fed Chair</li></ul>

4 + 1 cherry picked Maverick Charts of the week say 10,000 words or more = the ‘How’!Table of contents = the ‘What’! Executed in a succinct manner with the aim of a high density of ideas, because great research respects the reader’s time: Maverick Charts: Defense Contractors Backlog, Palantir, Mercado Libre, WixBonus: S&amp;P 500 1st year Performance with new Fed Chair

Defense Contractors Backlog, Palantir, Mercado Libre, Wix + S&P 500 & New Fed Chair

Market Intelligence, ORTEX

ORTEX Market Intel

Market Intelligence

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Equity Derivatives

<ul><li>Sentiment read: Options flow split sharply this week.</li><li>Momentum and ETF names drew aggressive call buying, pushing put-call ratios to historic lows.</li><li>At the same time, traders loaded up on puts ahead of several October and November earnings dates, a pattern that dominated the high-severity alerts.</li></ul>

Sentiment read: Options flow split sharply this week.Momentum and ETF names drew aggressive call buying, pushing put-call ratios to historic lows.At the same time, traders loaded up on puts ahead of several October and November earnings dates, a pattern that dominated the high-severity alerts.

Options Weekly: Bears Circle Earnings Names as Call Fever Grips Momentum Stocks

<ul>
<li>Strong topline growth in 3Q25 was offset by heavier investment intensity across Commerce and Fintech, pressuring margins and reinforcing our view that profitability headwinds will constrain near-term operating performance.</li>
<li>We maintain a Neutral view, with spreads already reflecting MELI’s credit strength and offering limited room for further tightening.</li>
<li>Credit metrics remain broadly healthy, though higher leverage and softer liquidity offset solid cash generation and resilient regional operations.</li>
</ul>


Strong topline growth in 3Q25 was offset by heavier investment intensity across Commerce and Fintech, pressuring margins and reinforcing our view that profitability headwinds will constrain near-term operating performance.
We maintain a Neutral view, with spreads already reflecting MELI’s credit strength and offering limited room for further tightening.
Credit metrics remain broadly healthy, though higher leverage and softer liquidity offset solid cash generation and resilient regional operations.


MercadoLibre 3Q25: Strong Growth but Profitability Under Pressure

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>MercadoLibre reported notable financial results for its third quarter of 2025, showcasing a strong continuation of growth trends across its e-commerce and fintech platforms.</li><li>The company's revenue grew by 39% year-on-year, marking the 27th consecutive quarter of growth above 30%.</li><li>This consistent growth is attributed to the company’s strategic investments in various areas such as logistics, free shipping, and financial services.</li></ul>

MercadoLibre reported notable financial results for its third quarter of 2025, showcasing a strong continuation of growth trends across its e-commerce and fintech platforms.The company's revenue grew by 39% year-on-year, marking the 27th consecutive quarter of growth above 30%.This consistent growth is attributed to the company’s strategic investments in various areas such as logistics, free shipping, and financial services.

MercadoLibre: How Fintech and Credit Expansion Are Enhancing Platform Stickiness!

Brazil

MercadoLibre, Inc. operates an online trading site for the Latin American markets. The Company's website allows businesses and individuals to list items, conduct sales, and purchases online in either a fixed-price and auction format. MercadoLibre offers classified advertisements for motor vehicles, vessels, aircraft, and real estate, as well as online payment services.

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MercadoLibre (MELI US)

MercadoLibre 4Q25: Strong Growth, Margin Pressure Persists

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Maverick Equity Research

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ORTEX Market Intel

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3Q25 saw strong growth for MELI, but heavy investments in Commerce and Fintech are pressuring margins. Profitability challenges will limit near...

Leandro Gubler

MercadoLibre: How Fintech and Credit Expansion Are Enhancing Platform Stickiness!

MercadoLibre reported notable financial results for its third quarter of 2025, showcasing a strong continuation of growth trends across its...

Baptista Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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MercadoLibre 4Q25: Strong Growth, Margin Pressure Persists

MELI’s 4Q25 reveals a high-growth giant choosing ecosystem dominance over margins. With credit risks rising and bond spreads tight, discover why...

Leandro Gubler

Defense Contractors Backlog, Palantir, Mercado Libre, Wix + S&P 500 & New Fed Chair

Table of contents = the ‘What’! Executed in a succinct manner with the aim of a high density of ideas, because great research respects the reader’s...

Maverick Equity Research

Options Weekly: Bears Circle Earnings Names as Call Fever Grips Momentum Stocks

Sentiment read: Options flow split sharply this week. Momentum and ETF names drew aggressive call buying, pushing put-call ratios to historic...

ORTEX Market Intel

MercadoLibre 3Q25: Strong Growth but Profitability Under Pressure

​3Q25 saw strong growth for MELI, but heavy investments in Commerce and Fintech are pressuring margins. Profitability challenges will limit near...

Leandro Gubler

MercadoLibre: How Fintech and Credit Expansion Are Enhancing Platform Stickiness!

MercadoLibre reported notable financial results for its third quarter of 2025, showcasing a strong continuation of growth trends across its...

Baptista Research

3Q25 saw strong growth for MELI, but heavy investments in Commerce and Fintech are pressuring margins. Profitability challenges will limit near...