New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Mercury's investor day highlighted several incremental positives that should deliver value for investors, including a FY30 EBITDAF target implying 5%-7% annualized growth.</li><li>There is potential upside from geothermal development through a mix of greenfield and brownfield projects, albeit post-2030.</li><li>Mercury's new management team is expected to maintain its strong execution track record, reaffirming MCY as a top pick in the electricity sector with an OUTPERFORM rating.</li></ul>

Mercury's investor day highlighted several incremental positives that should deliver value for investors, including a FY30 EBITDAF target implying 5%-7% annualized growth.There is potential upside from geothermal development through a mix of greenfield and brownfield projects, albeit post-2030.Mercury's new management team is expected to maintain its strong execution track record, reaffirming MCY as a top pick in the electricity sector with an OUTPERFORM rating.

Mercury Developing Options—2025 IR Day Take-Outs

<ul><li>Mercury (MCY) has downgraded FY25 EBITDAF guidance due to a record low in hydro generation, impacting the balance sheet and short-term dividend path.</li><li>Despite short-term challenges, Mercury remains a strong business with good growth opportunities and a growing dividend, maintaining an OUTPERFORM rating.</li><li>The target price for Mercury has been reduced to NZ$6.95 on lower short-term earnings and dividend path, with potential for recovery as conditions improve.</li></ul>

Mercury (MCY) has downgraded FY25 EBITDAF guidance due to a record low in hydro generation, impacting the balance sheet and short-term dividend path.Despite short-term challenges, Mercury remains a strong business with good growth opportunities and a growing dividend, maintaining an OUTPERFORM rating.The target price for Mercury has been reduced to NZ$6.95 on lower short-term earnings and dividend path, with potential for recovery as conditions improve.

Mercury 3Q25 Op Stats—A Bit of Rain Would Be Nice

<ul><li>October 2025 broke several records—the highest geothermal, wind, and solar generation for October; a renewable generation record; and, at month end, the snowpack was at its highest ever for this time of year.</li><li>The system is long energy, with hydro storage ~+50% above average, so we expect low wholesale electricity prices to persist for a while, although the NIWA climate survey indicates more settled weather ahead, and an 80% chance of La Niña conditions.</li><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) is the main short-term beneficiary of current operating conditions, as it can switch off its high-cost thermal generation.</li></ul>

October 2025 broke several records—the highest geothermal, wind, and solar generation for October; a renewable generation record; and, at month end, the snowpack was at its highest ever for this time of year.The system is long energy, with hydro storage ~+50% above average, so we expect low wholesale electricity prices to persist for a while, although the NIWA climate survey indicates more settled weather ahead, and an 80% chance of La Niña conditions.Genesis Energy (GNE) is the main short-term beneficiary of current operating conditions, as it can switch off its high-cost thermal generation.

Power Points Renewables Rule The Roost—November 2025

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>New Zealand is around 12 months from a general election, where electricity is more likely to be an election issue than at any election since 2014.</li><li>Meridian Energy (MEL), as the largest hydro generator, is the company most at risk from the implementation of a negative policy, and we downgrade it to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM.</li><li>The Frontier report, released 1 October 2025, is the latest in a long line of studies into the electricity market.</li></ul>

New Zealand is around 12 months from a general election, where electricity is more likely to be an election issue than at any election since 2014.Meridian Energy (MEL), as the largest hydro generator, is the company most at risk from the implementation of a negative policy, and we downgrade it to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM.The Frontier report, released 1 October 2025, is the latest in a long line of studies into the electricity market.

Electricity Sector - Pondering The Political Landscape—Assessing The Headwind

<ul><li>New Zealand’s electricity sector finished September 2025 on firmer footing; Cabinet’s review of the electricity sector delivered a benign outcome; the Commerce Commission (ComCom) has given draft approval to the Huntly Firming Option (HFO) deal; and hydro storage is back above average.</li><li>The big news from the past month was Cabinet’s response to the Frontier review of New Zealand’s electricity sector, which stopped short of fundamental reform, opting instead for incremental adjustments.</li><li>Interest rate falls during September 2025 saw the sector dividend-yield spread to the 10-year government bond rate increase to its highest level in three years.</li></ul>

New Zealand’s electricity sector finished September 2025 on firmer footing; Cabinet’s review of the electricity sector delivered a benign outcome; the Commerce Commission (ComCom) has given draft approval to the Huntly Firming Option (HFO) deal; and hydro storage is back above average.The big news from the past month was Cabinet’s response to the Frontier review of New Zealand’s electricity sector, which stopped short of fundamental reform, opting instead for incremental adjustments.Interest rate falls during September 2025 saw the sector dividend-yield spread to the 10-year government bond rate increase to its highest level in three years.

Power Points - WET AND WINDY—October 2025

Malaysia

Mercury Industries Berhad is an investment holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, invests and develops property, and markets paint and other related products.  Mercury Industries also manufactures and sells putty, underseal, lacquer, and paints for the automotive Industry.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Mercury Industries (MER MK)

Mercury Developing Options—2025 IR Day Take-Outs

Mercury's investor day highlighted several incremental positives that should deliver value for investors, including a FY30 EBITDAF target implying...

Forsyth Barr

Mercury 3Q25 Op Stats—A Bit of Rain Would Be Nice

Mercury (MCY) has downgraded FY25 EBITDAF guidance due to a record low in hydro generation, impacting the balance sheet and short-term dividend path.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Renewables Rule The Roost—November 2025

Genesis Energy (GNE) is the main short-term beneficiary of current operating conditions, as it can switch off its high-cost thermal generation.

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector - Pondering The Political Landscape—Assessing The Headwind

New Zealand is around 12 months from a general election, where electricity is more likely to be an election issue than at any election since 2014.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - WET AND WINDY—October 2025

Interest rate falls during September 2025 saw the sector dividend-yield spread to the 10-year government bond rate increase to its highest level in...

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)