New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) lifted FY26 EBITDAF guidance for the third time this financial year, with operating conditions continuing to favour cheap hydro generation over expensive gas and coal generation.</li><li>GNE's 3Q26 operating performance was strong, with all fuels lifting retail margins, albeit at the cost of electricity and gas volumes.</li><li>While its materiality to GNE earnings is declining, the age of the Kupe field was highlighted by two unplanned outages, which negatively impacts our long-term outlook modestly.</li></ul>

Genesis Energy (GNE) lifted FY26 EBITDAF guidance for the third time this financial year, with operating conditions continuing to favour cheap hydro generation over expensive gas and coal generation.GNE's 3Q26 operating performance was strong, with all fuels lifting retail margins, albeit at the cost of electricity and gas volumes.While its materiality to GNE earnings is declining, the age of the Kupe field was highlighted by two unplanned outages, which negatively impacts our long-term outlook modestly.

Genesis Energy Hydro Trumps Gas Every Time—3Q26 Op Stats

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Alongside its record 1H26 operating result, Genesis Energy (GNE) announced a NZ$400m equity raise to ease balance sheet constraints enabling the funding of its development pipeline.</li><li>GNE also announced a FY32 EBITDAF target implying growth broadly in line with peers, achievable only through on-balance sheet developments.</li><li>While this earnings growth is positive, it is capex-heavy and the associated equity dilution slightly offsets the value uplift.</li></ul>

Alongside its record 1H26 operating result, Genesis Energy (GNE) announced a NZ$400m equity raise to ease balance sheet constraints enabling the funding of its development pipeline.GNE also announced a FY32 EBITDAF target implying growth broadly in line with peers, achievable only through on-balance sheet developments.While this earnings growth is positive, it is capex-heavy and the associated equity dilution slightly offsets the value uplift.

Genesis Energy Development Battery Charged—1H26 Result

<ul><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) has had a strong 2Q26, benefiting from high rainfall that reduced the need to operate its expensive thermal generation.</li><li>The strong performance has led to GNE upgrading FY26 EBITDAF guidance, which we had anticipated.</li><li>If national rainfall volumes remain high, GNE is likely to be the main beneficiary.</li></ul>

Genesis Energy (GNE) has had a strong 2Q26, benefiting from high rainfall that reduced the need to operate its expensive thermal generation.The strong performance has led to GNE upgrading FY26 EBITDAF guidance, which we had anticipated.If national rainfall volumes remain high, GNE is likely to be the main beneficiary.

Genesis Energy When It Rains, GNE Shines—2Q26 Op Stats

<ul><li>At the last investor meeting of Genesis Energy’s Tongariro hydro scheme tour, it revealed it has been successful in altering its Lake Takapō consents, such that it expects to generate an additional +60GWh (+6%) per annum.</li><li>The additional generation lifts our EBITDAF forecast by ~+NZ$8m per annum.</li><li>We lift our target price by +7cps (+2.7%) to NZ$2.62.</li></ul>

At the last investor meeting of Genesis Energy’s Tongariro hydro scheme tour, it revealed it has been successful in altering its Lake Takapō consents, such that it expects to generate an additional +60GWh (+6%) per annum.The additional generation lifts our EBITDAF forecast by ~+NZ$8m per annum.We lift our target price by +7cps (+2.7%) to NZ$2.62.

Genesis Energy Consented For Higher Hydro

<ul><li>Genesis Energy’s (GNE) investor day was long on options but short on targets, reflecting the current state of the fuel market.</li><li>While GNE provided no long-term targets, its medium-term FY28 earnings goal and dividend path remain unchanged.</li><li>To achieve its goals, GNE needs capital.</li></ul>

Genesis Energy’s (GNE) investor day was long on options but short on targets, reflecting the current state of the fuel market.While GNE provided no long-term targets, its medium-term FY28 earnings goal and dividend path remain unchanged.To achieve its goals, GNE needs capital.

Genesis Energy Long Options, Short Targets—2025 IR Day

New Zealand

Genesis Energy Ltd. generates, transports, and retails electricity. The Company owns and operates hydroelectric generating stations to produce electricity, as well as explores natural gas and bottled liquefied petroleum gas.

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Genesis Energy (GNE NZ)

Genesis Energy Hydro Trumps Gas Every Time—3Q26 Op Stats

Genesis Energy (GNE) lifted FY26 EBITDAF guidance for the third time this financial year, with operating conditions continuing to favour cheap...

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy Development Battery Charged—1H26 Result

Alongside its record 1H26 operating result, Genesis Energy (GNE) announced a NZ$400m equity raise to ease balance sheet constraints enabling the...

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy When It Rains, GNE Shines—2Q26 Op Stats

Genesis Energy (GNE) has had a strong 2Q26, benefiting from high rainfall that reduced the need to operate its expensive thermal generation.

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy Consented For Higher Hydro

At the last investor meeting of Genesis Energy’s Tongariro hydro scheme tour, it revealed it has been successful in altering its Lake Takapō...

Forsyth Barr

Genesis Energy Long Options, Short Targets—2025 IR Day

While GNE provided no long-term targets, its medium-term FY28 earnings goal and dividend path remain unchanged. To achieve its goals, GNE needs...

Forsyth Barr

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