New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Contact Energy (CEN) has finished FY25 well, and we calculate EBITDAF will be consistent with CEN’s NZ$790m guidance.</li>
<li>Better hydro inflows and increased geothermal generation reduced the need to run thermal generation, lowering CEN’s 4Q25 cost of generation.</li>
<li>CEN’s key challenge for FY26 is integrating Manawa Energy (MNW) into the business and extracting the synergy benefits—the transaction was completed on 11 July 2025.</li>
</ul>


Contact Energy (CEN) has finished FY25 well, and we calculate EBITDAF will be consistent with CEN’s NZ$790m guidance.
Better hydro inflows and increased geothermal generation reduced the need to run thermal generation, lowering CEN’s 4Q25 cost of generation.
CEN’s key challenge for FY26 is integrating Manawa Energy (MNW) into the business and extracting the synergy benefits—the transaction was completed on 11 July 2025.


Contact Energy Good Finish to FY25, Work Ahead for FY26

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Hydro storage has recovered above the long-run average, benefiting all generators, with Mercury (MCY) being the biggest winner in June 2025.</li><li>Regulatory uncertainty looms, but is not expected to materially affect valuations, with MCY rated OUTPERFORM and others NEUTRAL.</li><li>Genesis Energy (GNE) is considering a new peaking plant, with discussions progressing positively to extend the Rankine units' operational life.</li></ul>

Hydro storage has recovered above the long-run average, benefiting all generators, with Mercury (MCY) being the biggest winner in June 2025.Regulatory uncertainty looms, but is not expected to materially affect valuations, with MCY rated OUTPERFORM and others NEUTRAL.Genesis Energy (GNE) is considering a new peaking plant, with discussions progressing positively to extend the Rankine units' operational life.

Power Points Watts in the Bank—July 2025

<ul><li>May 2025 saw a shift from dry winter concerns to upcoming political and regulatory decisions, with a Methanex gas deal and moderate rainfall alleviating winter 2025 risks.</li><li>The Ministerial Review and Energy Competition Task Force are anticipated to prompt changes, though they may not significantly impact company valuations.</li><li>Mercury (MCY) remains the preferred investment, trading at a discount relative to its history and peers, with the sector showing resilience despite potential challenges in winter 2026.</li></ul>

May 2025 saw a shift from dry winter concerns to upcoming political and regulatory decisions, with a Methanex gas deal and moderate rainfall alleviating winter 2025 risks.The Ministerial Review and Energy Competition Task Force are anticipated to prompt changes, though they may not significantly impact company valuations.Mercury (MCY) remains the preferred investment, trading at a discount relative to its history and peers, with the sector showing resilience despite potential challenges in winter 2026.

Power Points Water Worries Washed Away—June 2025

Malaysia

Mercury Industries Berhad is an investment holding company.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, invests and develops property, and markets paint and other related products.  Mercury Industries also manufactures and sells putty, underseal, lacquer, and paints for the automotive Industry.

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Mercury Industries (MER MK)

Contact Energy Good Finish to FY25, Work Ahead for FY26

CEN’s key challenge for FY26 is integrating Manawa Energy (MNW) into the business and extracting the synergy benefits—the transaction was completed...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Watts in the Bank—July 2025

Hydro storage has recovered above the long-run average, benefiting all generators, with Mercury (MCY) being the biggest winner in June 2025.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Water Worries Washed Away—June 2025

May 2025 saw a shift from dry winter concerns to upcoming political and regulatory decisions, with a Methanex gas deal and moderate rainfall...

Forsyth Barr

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