External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The MEMR on Saturday 8th Mar25 officially proposed an increase in royalty rate for Coal, Nickel, Copper, Gold, Silver, and Tin.</li><li>The impact on royalty hike varies, though INCO and TINS are most impacted due to their large exposure to affected products.</li><li>We reiterate our Neutral rating on the metal mining sector with a pecking order of ANTM&gt; NCKL&gt; TINS&gt; INCO&gt; MBMA&gt; MDKA.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The MEMR on Saturday 8th Mar25 officially proposed an increase in royalty rate for Coal, Nickel, Copper, Gold, Silver, and Tin.The impact on royalty hike varies, though INCO and TINS are most impacted due to their large exposure to affected products.We reiterate our Neutral rating on the metal mining sector with a pecking order of ANTM&gt; NCKL&gt; TINS&gt; INCO&gt; MBMA&gt; MDKA.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: Proposed Royalty Hike Will Pressure FY25 Earnings (NEUTRAL)

<ul><li>We estimate a slightly weaker 4Q24 earnings trend from declining ASPs, though some companies excel through soaring sales volume.</li><li>We expect ANTM and NCKL to beat consensus’ FY24 estimate at 132%/ 111% from increased sales volume.</li><li>We maintain our Neutral rating with a revised pecking order of ANTM&gt; NCKL&gt; INCO&gt; TINS&gt; MBMA&gt; MDKA</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We estimate a slightly weaker 4Q24 earnings trend from declining ASPs, though some companies excel through soaring sales volume.We expect ANTM and NCKL to beat consensus’ FY24 estimate at 132%/ 111% from increased sales volume.We maintain our Neutral rating with a revised pecking order of ANTM&gt; NCKL&gt; INCO&gt; TINS&gt; MBMA&gt; MDKAContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: 4Q24 preview: A Softer Quarter on Easing Commodity Prices (NEUTRAL)

<ul><li>Jan25 tin exports declined -67% mom due to a delay in export permits, supporting tin price, though exports are back on track by mid-Feb.</li><li>Ni ore premium rises on a strong restocking phase, whilst NPI rose to US$12k/ton after Gunbuster downsized its operations.</li><li>We reiterate our Neutral rating on the se</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Jan25 tin exports declined -67% mom due to a delay in export permits, supporting tin price, though exports are back on track by mid-Feb.Ni ore premium rises on a strong restocking phase, whilst NPI rose to US$12k/ton after Gunbuster downsized its operations.We reiterate our Neutral rating on the seContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: Nickel Ore Premium Might Be Here to Stay

<ul><li>Though implementation is still uncertain, a royalty hike to 15% could strain FY25E earnings by -2% to -9% based on our estimation.</li><li>The Philippine’s nickel ore export ban is tougher than it seems as market condition are no longer favorable and has a lower average ore grade.</li><li>We reiterate our Neutral rating on the sector, with TINS, NCKL, and ANTM as our top picks due to their stronger earnings visibility.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Though implementation is still uncertain, a royalty hike to 15% could strain FY25E earnings by -2% to -9% based on our estimation.The Philippine’s nickel ore export ban is tougher than it seems as market condition are no longer favorable and has a lower average ore grade.We reiterate our Neutral rating on the sector, with TINS, NCKL, and ANTM as our top picks due to their stronger earnings visibility.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Metal Mining: Possible Royalty Hike Could Pressure FY25F Earnings (NEUTRAL)

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Japfa Comfeed Indonesia / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index January rebalance ended 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 4 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.</li>
<li>Nearly all stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index January rebalance ended 31 December. The changes should be announced the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
We highlight 4 potential inclusions and 4 potential exclusions for the index at the rebalance. The actual number of changes could be lower at 2-3 a side.
Nearly all stocks will have over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers if they are added to or deleted from the index.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

Indonesia

PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk. is an integrated strategic minerals and EV battery materials company. The Company focuses on discovering nickel resources and producing advanced products to continuously improve clean energy supply. Merdeka Battery Materials serves customers in Indonesia.

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Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA IJ)

Metal Mining: Proposed Royalty Hike Will Pressure FY25 Earnings (NEUTRAL)

The MEMR on Saturday 8th Mar25 officially proposed an increase in royalty rate for Coal, Nickel, Copper, Gold, Silver, and Tin.

BRI Danareksa Research

Metal Mining: 4Q24 preview: A Softer Quarter on Easing Commodity Prices (NEUTRAL)

We estimate a slightly weaker 4Q24 earnings trend from declining ASPs, though some companies excel through soaring sales volume.

BRI Danareksa Research

Metal Mining: Nickel Ore Premium Might Be Here to Stay

Jan25 tin exports declined -67% mom due to a delay in export permits, supporting tin price, though exports are back on track by mid-Feb.

BRI Danareksa Research

Metal Mining: Possible Royalty Hike Could Pressure FY25F Earnings (NEUTRAL)

Though implementation is still uncertain, a royalty hike to 15% could strain FY25E earnings by -2% to -9% based on our estimation.

BRI Danareksa Research

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan 2025): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have been outperforming the deletes. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

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