New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Earnings are tracking lower, leading to a material downward earnings revision and a short-term dividend reduction.</li><li>Historically low hydro inflows and weak wind volumes are the main drivers of the earnings downgrade.</li><li>MEL has been successful in lifting its pricing and progressing its development pipeline, supporting improved long-term earnings.</li></ul>

Earnings are tracking lower, leading to a material downward earnings revision and a short-term dividend reduction.Historically low hydro inflows and weak wind volumes are the main drivers of the earnings downgrade.MEL has been successful in lifting its pricing and progressing its development pipeline, supporting improved long-term earnings.

Meridian Energy - March 2025 Op Stats—Parched

<ul><li>March 2025 saw dry conditions with declining hydro levels and rising electricity prices, but short-dated futures prices fell, indicating effective dry year mitigations.</li><li>Gas production volumes are decreasing, posing challenges for winter 2026, although the sector has increased reliance on coal and added new generation capacity.</li><li>Electricity stocks offer good value and attractive yields, with MCY and MEL rated OUTPERFORM, while CEN, GNE, and MNW are rated NEUTRAL.</li></ul>

March 2025 saw dry conditions with declining hydro levels and rising electricity prices, but short-dated futures prices fell, indicating effective dry year mitigations.Gas production volumes are decreasing, posing challenges for winter 2026, although the sector has increased reliance on coal and added new generation capacity.Electricity stocks offer good value and attractive yields, with MCY and MEL rated OUTPERFORM, while CEN, GNE, and MNW are rated NEUTRAL.

Power Points Keep Calm and Power On—April 2025

<ul><li>Meridian Energy (MEL) will be glad when FY25 is behind it, with 1H25 the worst six-month result since listing and 2H25 shaping up to be similarly tough.</li><li>Weak hydro inflows are the main cause for the financial pain, but it will rain again and MEL will reassert itself as the most profitable generator/retailer.</li><li>Outside of the financials, 1H25 was notable for MEL progressing its developments, with two projects being consented in the last two months and a joint venture announced. </li></ul>

Meridian Energy (MEL) will be glad when FY25 is behind it, with 1H25 the worst six-month result since listing and 2H25 shaping up to be similarly tough.Weak hydro inflows are the main cause for the financial pain, but it will rain again and MEL will reassert itself as the most profitable generator/retailer.Outside of the financials, 1H25 was notable for MEL progressing its developments, with two projects being consented in the last two months and a joint venture announced. 

Meridian Energy - Preparing for a Double Whammy—1H25 Result

<ul><li>Contact Energy’s (CEN) investor day set a series of FY31 targets, with asset development the core driver of earnings growth under its Contact31+ strategy.</li><li>While the development programme is large, the use of joint ventures to develop its wind and solar projects reduces funding requirements, minimising the need for a capital raise.</li><li>Overall, the positives outweighed the negatives, and we lift our target price +2.1% (+23cps) to NZ$11.00 and retain our OUTPERFORM rating.</li></ul>

Contact Energy’s (CEN) investor day set a series of FY31 targets, with asset development the core driver of earnings growth under its Contact31+ strategy.While the development programme is large, the use of joint ventures to develop its wind and solar projects reduces funding requirements, minimising the need for a capital raise.Overall, the positives outweighed the negatives, and we lift our target price +2.1% (+23cps) to NZ$11.00 and retain our OUTPERFORM rating.

Contact Energy Flexing The Development Pipeline—2025 IR Day

<ul><li>Meridian Energy (MEL) has finally finished its most challenging operating half since listing.</li><li>Whilst the December 2024 operating performance was solid, that was not enough to offset a very weak August–November 2024 period, such that we expect 1H25 to be MEL's weakest result since listing in 2013.</li><li>It is also materially softer than anticipated, leading to a significant FY25 EBITDAF downgrade. </li></ul>

Meridian Energy (MEL) has finally finished its most challenging operating half since listing.Whilst the December 2024 operating performance was solid, that was not enough to offset a very weak August–November 2024 period, such that we expect 1H25 to be MEL's weakest result since listing in 2013.It is also materially softer than anticipated, leading to a significant FY25 EBITDAF downgrade. 

Meridian Energy - Look Forward, Not Back — Dec25 Op Stats

New Zealand

Meridian Energy Ltd. operates as a state-owned electricity generator. The Company produces hydro-electric power and supplies electricity to residential, business, and rural customers. Meridian Energy provides services throughout New Zealand.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Meridian Energy (MEL NZ)

Meridian Energy - March 2025 Op Stats—Parched

MEL has been successful in lifting its pricing and progressing its development pipeline, supporting improved long-term earnings.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Keep Calm and Power On—April 2025

March 2025 saw dry conditions with declining hydro levels and rising electricity prices, but short-dated futures prices fell, indicating effective...

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy - Preparing for a Double Whammy—1H25 Result

Meridian Energy (MEL) will be glad when FY25 is behind it, with 1H25 the worst six-month result since listing and 2H25 shaping up to be similarly...

Forsyth Barr

Contact Energy Flexing The Development Pipeline—2025 IR Day

Contact Energy’s (CEN) investor day set a series of FY31 targets, with asset development the core driver of earnings growth under its Contact31+...

Forsyth Barr

Meridian Energy - Look Forward, Not Back — Dec25 Op Stats

Whilst the December 2024 operating performance was solid, that was not enough to offset a very weak August–November 2024 period

Forsyth Barr

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)