New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>May 2025 saw a shift from dry winter concerns to upcoming political and regulatory decisions, with a Methanex gas deal and moderate rainfall alleviating winter 2025 risks.</li><li>The Ministerial Review and Energy Competition Task Force are anticipated to prompt changes, though they may not significantly impact company valuations.</li><li>Mercury (MCY) remains the preferred investment, trading at a discount relative to its history and peers, with the sector showing resilience despite potential challenges in winter 2026.</li></ul>

May 2025 saw a shift from dry winter concerns to upcoming political and regulatory decisions, with a Methanex gas deal and moderate rainfall alleviating winter 2025 risks.The Ministerial Review and Energy Competition Task Force are anticipated to prompt changes, though they may not significantly impact company valuations.Mercury (MCY) remains the preferred investment, trading at a discount relative to its history and peers, with the sector showing resilience despite potential challenges in winter 2026.

Power Points Water Worries Washed Away—June 2025

<ul><li>Hydrology remains a concern, with storage levels improving slightly, but Meridian Energy faced another challenging month.</li><li>The electricity sector offers defensive earnings and dividend growth, with Mercury rated as OUTPERFORM while others remain NEUTRAL.</li><li>The Commerce Commission is expected to make an announcement on Contact Energy's proposed takeover of Manawa Energy by 9 May 2025, with a positive decision anticipated.</li></ul>

Hydrology remains a concern, with storage levels improving slightly, but Meridian Energy faced another challenging month.The electricity sector offers defensive earnings and dividend growth, with Mercury rated as OUTPERFORM while others remain NEUTRAL.The Commerce Commission is expected to make an announcement on Contact Energy's proposed takeover of Manawa Energy by 9 May 2025, with a positive decision anticipated.

Power Points Hydro Holding Pattern—May 2025

<ul><li>The backdrop for the sector conference, Downstream 2025, was the ongoing political and regulatory fallout from record-high winter 2024 prices and current worryingly low hydro lake levels.</li><li>The general conference consensus was that limited gas supply—which has not yet been fully replaced by new generation—is the main cause of the current challenges.</li><li>Nevertheless, political and regulatory risk is currently heightened, and the conference underlined that there will be changes to the market coming. </li></ul>

The backdrop for the sector conference, Downstream 2025, was the ongoing political and regulatory fallout from record-high winter 2024 prices and current worryingly low hydro lake levels.The general conference consensus was that limited gas supply—which has not yet been fully replaced by new generation—is the main cause of the current challenges.Nevertheless, political and regulatory risk is currently heightened, and the conference underlined that there will be changes to the market coming. 

Electricity Sector - Upstream Problematic Downstream

<ul><li>Recent share price declines have increased the sector’s attractiveness, particularly Meridian Energy (MEL), which we upgrade to OUTPERFORM.</li><li>The sector is resilient to economic downturns and trade wars, offering both growth and a strong dividend yield. 2025 has started with unprecedented low hydro inflows, particularly in the South Island, where storage has fallen -37% since late 2024.</li><li>South Island inflows are the lowest since records started being kept and North Island inflows are not far behind. </li></ul>

Recent share price declines have increased the sector’s attractiveness, particularly Meridian Energy (MEL), which we upgrade to OUTPERFORM.The sector is resilient to economic downturns and trade wars, offering both growth and a strong dividend yield. 2025 has started with unprecedented low hydro inflows, particularly in the South Island, where storage has fallen -37% since late 2024.South Island inflows are the lowest since records started being kept and North Island inflows are not far behind. 

Power Points - Getting Very Thirsty—March 2025

<ul><li>The Commerce Commission's (ComCom) Statement of Issues (SoI) has raised several concerns about Contact Energy's (CEN) proposed acquisition of Manawa Energy (MNW), prompting us to lower the probability of clearance to 50%.</li><li>Consequently, we reduce our MNW target price by -27cps (-4.2%) to NZ$6.15 and downgrade our rating to NEUTRAL (from OUTPERFORM).</li><li>In January 2025, inflows and hydro storage levels continued to decline, triggering thermal generation, surging wholesale electricity prices, and pushing ASX futures higher.</li></ul>

The Commerce Commission's (ComCom) Statement of Issues (SoI) has raised several concerns about Contact Energy's (CEN) proposed acquisition of Manawa Energy (MNW), prompting us to lower the probability of clearance to 50%.Consequently, we reduce our MNW target price by -27cps (-4.2%) to NZ$6.15 and downgrade our rating to NEUTRAL (from OUTPERFORM).In January 2025, inflows and hydro storage levels continued to decline, triggering thermal generation, surging wholesale electricity prices, and pushing ASX futures higher.

Power Points - ComCom Raises Clearance Concerns—Feb 2025

New Zealand

Meridian Energy Ltd. operates as a state-owned electricity generator. The Company produces hydro-electric power and supplies electricity to residential, business, and rural customers. Meridian Energy provides services throughout New Zealand.

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Meridian Energy (MEL NZ)

Power Points Water Worries Washed Away—June 2025

May 2025 saw a shift from dry winter concerns to upcoming political and regulatory decisions, with a Methanex gas deal and moderate rainfall...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points Hydro Holding Pattern—May 2025

The Commerce Commission is expected to make an announcement on Contact Energy's proposed takeover of Manawa Energy by 9 May 2025, with a positive...

Forsyth Barr

Electricity Sector - Upstream Problematic Downstream

The backdrop for the sector conference, Downstream 2025, was the ongoing political and regulatory fallout from record-high winter 2024 prices and...

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - Getting Very Thirsty—March 2025

Recent share price declines have increased the sector’s attractiveness, particularly Meridian Energy (MEL), which we upgrade to OUTPERFORM.

Forsyth Barr

Power Points - ComCom Raises Clearance Concerns—Feb 2025

The Commerce Commission's (ComCom) Statement of Issues (SoI) has raised several concerns about Contact Energy's (CEN) proposed acquisition...

Forsyth Barr

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