Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Meritz Financial confirmed the total number of treasury shares resulting from the mergers, amounting to 5.04% of SO. When combined with the largest shareholder's stake, the float rate becomes 47.75%.</li>
<li>We should focus on direct rebalancing flow through KS200 ETFs on T-1 effective rather than setting it up preemptively. The estimated total AUM of ETFs directly mirroring KS200 is ₩17T.</li>
<li>Meritz Financial is expected to receive an inflow of around ₩43B, equivalent to 1.35x ADTV. This is a significant flow impact size as a single-day event.</li>
</ul>


Meritz Financial confirmed the total number of treasury shares resulting from the mergers, amounting to 5.04% of SO. When combined with the largest shareholder's stake, the float rate becomes 47.75%.
We should focus on direct rebalancing flow through KS200 ETFs on T-1 effective rather than setting it up preemptively. The estimated total AUM of ETFs directly mirroring KS200 is ₩17T.
Meritz Financial is expected to receive an inflow of around ₩43B, equivalent to 1.35x ADTV. This is a significant flow impact size as a single-day event.


Meritz Financial: Main Target for Flow Trading in KS200 June Rebalancing

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we discuss the recent Korean stock portfolio allocation changes by the NPS.</li>
<li>The data suggests that NPS has been increasing its holdings into more defensive sectors such as insurance, convenience stores, and industrials. </li>
<li>On the other hand, it has been decreasing capital allocation in consumer discretionary related stocks.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we discuss the recent Korean stock portfolio allocation changes by the NPS.
The data suggests that NPS has been increasing its holdings into more defensive sectors such as insurance, convenience stores, and industrials. 
On the other hand, it has been decreasing capital allocation in consumer discretionary related stocks.


NPS: Increasing Capital Allocation to More Defensive Stocks in Korea

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI2 INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index</a>.</li>
<li>Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-stock-exchange-weighted-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26056:1" rel="noopener">TWSE INDEX</a> has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.</li>
</ul>


Total short interest in Hong Kong is HK$435.1bn, marginally higher from end-December. Short notional has moved in line with the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX). 
Total short notional of the KOSPI and KOSDAQ market has moved up since end-December and is in line with the move higher in the KOSPI2 INDEX and KOSDAQ 150 Index.
Short notional in Taiwan is lower over the quarter even as the TWSE INDEX has moved higher over the period. There has been big short covering on some stocks.


Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

<ul>
<li>The Korea Exchange announced special changes in KOSPI 200 index.</li>
<li>Effective 3 April, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meritz-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19692:1" rel="noopener">Meritz Securities (008560 KS)</a> will be excluded from the KOSPI 200 index and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dgb-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6138:1" rel="noopener">DGB Financial Group (139130 KS)</a> will replace it. </li>
<li>We think that there could be slightly better capital flow into DGB Financial as compared to other regional/smaller banks in Korea including BNK Financial</li>
</ul>


The Korea Exchange announced special changes in KOSPI 200 index.
Effective 3 April, Meritz Securities (008560 KS) will be excluded from the KOSPI 200 index and DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) will replace it. 
We think that there could be slightly better capital flow into DGB Financial as compared to other regional/smaller banks in Korea including BNK Financial


KOSPI 200: Special Changes & Rising Delinquency Ratios of Banks in Korea

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dgb-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6138:1" rel="noopener">DGB Financial Group (139130 KS)</a> replaces <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meritz-securities-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19692:1" rel="noopener">Meritz Securities (008560 KS)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> at the close on 31 March.</li>
<li>We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 5.15m shares (KRW 35.5bn; 12.1 days of ADV) of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dgb-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6138:1" rel="noopener">DGB Financial Group (139130 KS)</a> at the close of trading on 31 March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dgb-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6138:1" rel="noopener">DGB Financial Group (139130 KS)</a> trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and Price to Book. There could be relative outperformance over the next week.</li>
</ul>


As expected, DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) replaces Meritz Securities (008560 KS) in the Korea Stock Exchange Kospi 200 Index (KOSPI2 INDEX) at the close on 31 March.
We estimate passive trackers will need to buy 5.15m shares (KRW 35.5bn; 12.1 days of ADV) of DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) at the close of trading on 31 March.

DGB Financial Group (139130 KS) trades cheaper than its peers on forward PE and Price to Book. There could be relative outperformance over the next week.


KOSPI200 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: DGB Financial (139130 KS) To Replace Meritz Sec (008560 KS)

South Korea

Meritz Financial Group Inc is a holding company of Meritz Securities, Meritz Asset Management, Meritz Financial Information Service and et cetera. The Company manages and controls its financial subsidiaries.

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Meritz Financial Group (138040 KS)

Meritz Financial: Main Target for Flow Trading in KS200 June Rebalancing

This post investigates the free-float rate of Meritz Financial after the two mergers this year, as it is expected to be the main target for flow...

Sanghyun Park

NPS: Increasing Capital Allocation to More Defensive Stocks in Korea

In this insight, we discuss the recent Korean stock portfolio allocation changes by the NPS. The data suggests that NPS has been increasing its...

Douglas Kim

Short Interest Movements (Q1 2023): HK, Korea, Taiwan, Australia

The Insight looks at movements in short interest across HK, Korea, Taiwan and Australia stocks over Q1 and highlights large increases/decreases in...

Brian Freitas

KOSPI 200: Special Changes & Rising Delinquency Ratios of Banks in Korea

Korea Exchange announced special changes in KOSPI 200. Effective 3 April, Meritz Securities will be excluded from the KOSPI 200 index and DGB...

Douglas Kim

KOSPI200 Ad Hoc Index Rebalance: DGB Financial (139130 KS) To Replace Meritz Sec (008560 KS)

DGB Financial will be added to the KOSPI200 Index on 31 March. The stock trades cheaper than its peers but becomes short sell eligible from the...

Brian Freitas

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