TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>MAUs grew just 5M or 1% QoQ while ARPU was flat. Little turnaround traction evident despite lots of empty statistics offered.</li>
<li>Longtime CFO Todd Morgenfeld departing, offers vague margin expansion promises.</li>
<li>Revenue and opex guidance for 1Q23 below consensus...not good for a consensus long.</li>
</ul>


MAUs grew just 5M or 1% QoQ while ARPU was flat. Little turnaround traction evident despite lots of empty statistics offered.
Longtime CFO Todd Morgenfeld departing, offers vague margin expansion promises.
Revenue and opex guidance for 1Q23 below consensus...not good for a consensus long.


Founder, BWS Financial Inc

Hamed Khorsand

Founder

Independent Stock Specific Research

BWS Financial Inc

BWS provides independent stock specific research focused on companies with distinct value that are going through a special situation where there is a tangible catalyst not priced in. The catalyst can be anything from new product, restructuring, M&A, management change, change in business strategy, etc. BWS’s focus is to understand the change and evaluate the potential return for investors.

BWS utilizes a self formed proprietary approach in discovering stocks by putting great emphasis on deep research. BWS does generate short recommendations following a similar criteria.

<ul>
<li>We are initiating coverage of Immersion (IMMR) with a Buy Rating and $11 target</li>
<li>IMMR is a haptics technology developer that has undergone a management change that could further result in a series of material developments</li>
<li>IMMR naming Eric Singer as its CEO suggests there is more to come from IMMR than the cost cuts IMMR undertook two years ago when Mr. Singer joined the Board</li>
</ul>


We are initiating coverage of Immersion (IMMR) with a Buy Rating and $11 target
IMMR is a haptics technology developer that has undergone a management change that could further result in a series of material developments
IMMR naming Eric Singer as its CEO suggests there is more to come from IMMR than the cost cuts IMMR undertook two years ago when Mr. Singer joined the Board


IMMR: Rumbles of a Special Sit, Initiating

Analysis on GARP with strong economic moats, Moat Investing

Moat Investing

Analysis on GARP with strong economic moats

We are a group of experienced investors that like to dig deeper into stocks to find growth stories at a reasonable price with strong economic moats. We also aim to conduct high-quality analysis by doing deep dive on valuations, key business drivers, risk/reward, and different future scenarios.

GARP with strong economic moats

<ul>
<li>Meta announced its Q4 earnings, exceeding expectations on the top line by 1.5%, but falling short on the bottom line by 20.8%.</li>
<li>The key highlights from the announcement included an increase in share buybacks, reductions in capital expenditures, and a lowered outlook for operating expenses.</li>
<li>Since the release of new earnings by Meta (<span class="ticker-hover-wrapper">NASDAQ:META</span>), we have been following up on our last report, which got a very positive response.</li>
</ul>


Meta announced its Q4 earnings, exceeding expectations on the top line by 1.5%, but falling short on the bottom line by 20.8%.
The key highlights from the announcement included an increase in share buybacks, reductions in capital expenditures, and a lowered outlook for operating expenses.
Since the release of new earnings by Meta (NASDAQ:META), we have been following up on our last report, which got a very positive response.


Meta Platforms: Q4 Earnings Update, Our Approach Now

<ul>
<li>AWS revenue grew 20% YoY to $21.3B, about $400M or ~2% below consensus…and a 700bp deceleration.</li>
<li>AWS margins of 24% were down 200bps QoQ / 600bps YoY as continued optimization of customer contracts continues to weigh on margins.</li>
<li>Amazon advertising continues to dramatically outpace all other online platforms, highlighting the moat of first party data at the point of purchase, unimpacted by Apple.</li>
</ul>


AWS revenue grew 20% YoY to $21.3B, about $400M or ~2% below consensus…and a 700bp deceleration.
AWS margins of 24% were down 200bps QoQ / 600bps YoY as continued optimization of customer contracts continues to weigh on margins.
Amazon advertising continues to dramatically outpace all other online platforms, highlighting the moat of first party data at the point of purchase, unimpacted by Apple.


<ul>
<li>Meta lowered 2023 expense guide by $5B (or 5%)  to $89bn-$95bn and capex guide by $4B (or 11%) to $30bn-$33bn</li>
<li>Metaverse spending continues, META lost $4.3B on $700M in revenue this quarter and losses are expected to accelerate in 2023. </li>
<li>Zuck said the word efficiency 18x and AI 15x...Evidently, these are his priorities!</li>
</ul>


Meta lowered 2023 expense guide by $5B (or 5%)  to $89bn-$95bn and capex guide by $4B (or 11%) to $30bn-$33bn
Metaverse spending continues, META lost $4.3B on $700M in revenue this quarter and losses are expected to accelerate in 2023. 
Zuck said the word efficiency 18x and AI 15x...Evidently, these are his priorities!


Meta Platforms 4Q22: Zuckerberg Got Religion?

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

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Meta (META US)

PINS 4Q22: We Don't Chase Vanity MAUs

Pinterest has become a consensus long on the hopes that its new CEO Bill Ready will pivot the company from a pure advertising model to an ecommerce...

Aaron Gabin

IMMR: Rumbles of a Special Sit, Initiating

Our interest in IMMR is centered on the Company selecting its Board member Eric Singer as CEO. We have covered several names in the past with Mr....

BWS Financial Inc

Meta Platforms: Q4 Earnings Update, Our Approach Now

Meta announced its Q4 earnings, exceeding expectations on the top line by 1.5%, but falling short on the bottom line by 20.8%.

Moat Investing

Amazon 4Q22: When Does AWS Trough?

Amazon continues to be a frustrating long...just when retail margins show promise, AWS decelerates and margins drop. We think the latter is...

Aaron Gabin

Meta Platforms 4Q22: Zuckerberg Got Religion?

Meta is getting credited today with a "phase change" in operating cadence, with a newfound emphasis on efficiency and profitability. Great! But we...

Aaron Gabin

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