European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>MFE secured 43.6% of ProSieben; board supports its offer. PPF stalled at 18.4% with expired bid. The arbitrage spread compressed, leaving minimal upside but structural consolidation remains pivotal.</li>
<li>Short-Term arbitrage returns are capped (+0.4% base case), while downside risk persists if blocking dynamics resurface. The medium-term value case depends on synergy delivery, with 18–35% EPS accretion possible.</li>
<li>Key milestones: September 1 end of extended acceptance, September 4 final results. Thereafter, MFE may pursue creeping acquisitions under Germany’s best-price rule, progressively consolidating control and enabling strategic integration.</li>
</ul>


MFE secured 43.6% of ProSieben; board supports its offer. PPF stalled at 18.4% with expired bid. The arbitrage spread compressed, leaving minimal upside but structural consolidation remains pivotal.
Short-Term arbitrage returns are capped (+0.4% base case), while downside risk persists if blocking dynamics resurface. The medium-term value case depends on synergy delivery, with 18–35% EPS accretion possible.
Key milestones: September 1 end of extended acceptance, September 4 final results. Thereafter, MFE may pursue creeping acquisitions under Germany’s best-price rule, progressively consolidating control and enabling strategic integration.


MFE-ProSieben: Spread Closed, Control Still in Play

<ul>
<li>MFE raised its offer to €7.88 implied, tightening the spread to just +1.15%; new long entries now face skewed downside risk without a second bump or strategic surprise.</li>
<li>Legacy holders from €5.80–7.00 have captured meaningful gains; with the August 13 deadline approaching, using MFE-A hedges or call structures preserves upside while limiting exposure.</li>
<li>MFE-A borrow remains accessible (~0.75%), making short hedges viable; paired with call options, this offers capital-efficient exposure to upside while mitigating equity volatility in a tight spread setup.</li>
</ul>


MFE raised its offer to €7.88 implied, tightening the spread to just +1.15%; new long entries now face skewed downside risk without a second bump or strategic surprise.
Legacy holders from €5.80–7.00 have captured meaningful gains; with the August 13 deadline approaching, using MFE-A hedges or call structures preserves upside while limiting exposure.
MFE-A borrow remains accessible (~0.75%), making short hedges viable; paired with call options, this offers capital-efficient exposure to upside while mitigating equity volatility in a tight spread setup.


ProSiebenSat.1: MFE Raises Offer, Reducing Arbitrage Upside and Shifting Risk Profile

<ul>
<li>Since mid-June, share price spreads have generally widened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 6 tightening and 13 widening.</li>
<li>The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A has widened to 59.2%; the discount of Grifols B has widened (Brookfield’s approach remains tentative and non-committal).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, MFE Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Handelsbanken, Henkel.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-June, share price spreads have generally widened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 6 tightening and 13 widening.
The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A has widened to 59.2%; the discount of Grifols B has widened (Brookfield’s approach remains tentative and non-committal).
Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, MFE Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Handelsbanken, Henkel.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July '25 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-May, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening. </li>
<li>The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A has tightened to 50.8%; the discount of Grifols B has widened (Brookfield’s approach remains tentative and non-committal.). </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols, MFE Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Handelsbanken, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-May, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening. 
The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A has tightened to 50.8%; the discount of Grifols B has widened (Brookfield’s approach remains tentative and non-committal.). 
Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols, MFE Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Handelsbanken, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June '25 Report

<ul>
<li>Offer Period: Both PPF and MFE offers expire August 13, 2025, allowing shareholders to weigh competing bids. The synchronized deadline heightens pressure on MFE to respond or risk losing influence.</li>
<li>Options Strategy: Buying the €7.10 call offers low-cost exposure to a potential bump. With breakeven at €7.26 and decent delta, it's a tactical way to play a revised MFE bid.</li>
<li>Spread Trade: A €7.10/€7.40 call spread caps risk at €0.10 and offers 3:1 reward potential. Attractive for investors expecting moderate upside without committing full premium or needing full stock exposure.</li>
</ul>


Offer Period: Both PPF and MFE offers expire August 13, 2025, allowing shareholders to weigh competing bids. The synchronized deadline heightens pressure on MFE to respond or risk losing influence.
Options Strategy: Buying the €7.10 call offers low-cost exposure to a potential bump. With breakeven at €7.26 and decent delta, it's a tactical way to play a revised MFE bid.
Spread Trade: A €7.10/€7.40 call spread caps risk at €0.10 and offers 3:1 reward potential. Attractive for investors expecting moderate upside without committing full premium or needing full stock exposure.


Event-Driven Optionality in ProSieben: Playing the Floor, Targeting the Upside

Italy

MFE-MediaForEurope N.V. is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates television broadcasting, television production, signal broadcasting management, and music production businesses, as well as television stations. MFE-MediaForEurope serves customers in Europe.

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MFE-Media for Europe NV (MFEB IM)

MFE-ProSieben: Spread Closed, Control Still in Play

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ProSiebenSat.1: MFE Raises Offer, Reducing Arbitrage Upside and Shifting Risk Profile

MFE’s raised bid lifts offer value to €7.88, but the spread is now tight. Old longs are in the money; new entries face downside risk unless a new...

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Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July '25 Report

Since mid-June, share price spreads have generally widened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 6 tightening...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June '25 Report

Since mid-May, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven Optionality in ProSieben: Playing the Floor, Targeting the Upside

PPF sets a €7.00 floor in ProSieben; market eyes MFE’s response. Optionality via calls or call spreads offers cheap upside exposure ahead of the...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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